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Again, without taking into consideration any of the other factors in the data, it's easy to come to these flawed conclusions.

When you consider the fact that the deck is stacked against African-American men in this country; it becomes more apparent why families are more easily formed.

If you actually research the data, or simply read the research done on said data, you'll find that the strongest correlations for marriage (and divorce) are: age, poverty, and education level; respectively.

When adjusting for these disparities, you find that socioeconomic factors account for more than 2/3rds of the difference between White and Black marriage/divorce rate.

So no, it isn't a parenting or cultural issue. Some sociologists claim that African-American cultural, which has greater familial ties with matriarchal family members like mothers, aunts, and grandmothers - this has less to do with marriage/divorce and more to do with female roles in the household. African-American women, culturally, are more likely to be assertive and career driven. Black women are three times more likely than White women to state career advancement in similar professional positions as their number one goal (over family, stability, etc).

And btw, getting a woman pregnant is no cause to marry her. That isn't a cultural flaw. I didn't marry the mother of my children, nor would that have been a good idea.

tl;dr, guys, there's a great deal of sociological work done in these areas. Instead of folks saying shit off the cuff, it might be a good idea to read some literature on the topic at hand.

I feel like these threads must be tough for you, and I appreciate you fighting the good fight and educating people. I hope you don't feel attacked about most of this stuff... I assure you people are learning and it's helping someone.

I think the deck is stacked against AA's, particularly culturally - it's crazy that I drive home listening to rap and this shit is catchy and talking about cooking crack and cars and bitches and then the commercials are title loans and divorce attorneys. Its funny and infuriating at the same time - like you can't make this shit up.

Anyway, I don't even have a solution or really much to say about any of this. I believe in the racist spectrum (everyone is varying degrees of racist), and I am way to the non-racist side, but I don't think anyone can truly get there, at least it seems damn near impossible in the US.
 
I feel like these threads must be tough for you, and I appreciate you fighting the good fight and educating people. I hope you don't feel attacked about most of this stuff... I assure you people are learning and it's helping someone.

You'd be right on all counts. I appreciate it bro.

I think the deck is stacked against AA's, particularly culturally - it's crazy that I drive home listening to rap and this shit is catchy and talking about cooking crack and cars and bitches and then the commercials are title loans and divorce attorneys. Its funny and infuriating at the same time - like you can't make this shit up.

I agree.. that is infuriating.

Anyway, I don't even have a solution or really much to say about any of this. I believe in the racist spectrum (everyone is varying degrees of racist), and I am way to the non-racist side, but I don't think anyone can truly get there, at least it seems damn near impossible in the US.

Perhaps.

I dunno about the racist spectrum though..

I think that might not be real in African-American society; as many African-Americans have no illusions of superiority to White Americans. I can probably say, from personal experience, that Asians also have identity issues. Many don't realize it, but skin bleaching and whiteners are common throughout Southeast Asia.
 
Dave, I know you're a smart guy, so I'll say this to you: those statistics aren't "factual" as in, they are easily disputable.

I can explain in detail if you like, but I did this in another thread where the post got deleted because of the back and forth with another poster.

It's complex and deals with concepts of statistics, but, in the most brief way I can put it, it's a ridiculous notion to think that simply by dividing the number of crimes committed by "Blacks" into the total est. population of African-Americans in the U.S., that you would arrive at a statistically representative and accurate value describing the rate of at which African-Americans commit crime. One of the most glaring issues is that for every one African-American that commits crime, the per capita total rate (due to smaller representation) increases by a coefficient of 6.73 when compared to whenever one White individual commits crime.

In a vacuum of discrete populations, and discrete societies, this could be ignored; but since these values are interdependent and not independent, you cannot simply extract simple per capita rates and present them as representative; thus, they are not factual. You cannot mathematically make the claim "Blacks commit crimes at higher rates than x" without accounting for other factors.

To give an example of how this might work in say, basketball, it's no different than saying the following:

Brandon Jennings scores at a higher rate per minute (i.e. per quantum) than Kevin Love.


It's a near meaningless statement. While the raw data, without any analysis whatsoever other than a simple division of points into minutes might suggest this is the case; it's an entirely false conclusion using flawed maths and making an unsupportable conclusion.

Again, in short, and I can explain in much greater detail if you like:

(1) it is not true to say African-Americans commit more crime than any other race;
(2) it is not sound science to use this methodology to derive such a conclusion;
(3) sociological studies have made great strides in the field, studying criminal behavior and causative effects and the most common consensus is that there is minimal correlation between race or ethnicity and criminality, but instead large correlation with opportunity, wealth, and standards of living;
(4) without accounting for trends and the causes of movement, there is too much room for error in the conclusion. The War on Drugs, for example, resulted in the mass incarceration of African-Americans at disproportionately higher rates than Whites charged with similar crimes.

The list goes on and on and on... and we can go over all of this, but I don't know how receptive many would even be to such a conversation.



It's reading of raw data.

It's as if you arrived from Mars as a complete alien with your landing spot smack dab at the MGM Grand in downtown Detroit and you had to walk through the city to find fuel. You would the a space-faring bunch of aliens would understand not to evaluate an entire race based on what happens in slums.

Here's the concise (tl;dr) point: it is not scientifically sound to say African-Americans commit crime at higher rates based on the minimal data we have. If this were true, then it would mean that if I took one black person and one white person and put them into a separate and distinct vacuums with equal conditions, the black person would have a higher predisposition to commit crime - and we have no evidence to support that conclusion.

You can't just look at raw data without understanding some modicum of statistics and logic and make these kinds of claims. Again, it's like entirely like saying Brandon Jennings is scores at a higher per minute rate than Kevin Love - it's a nonsensical argument.

Are you saying that there isn't a large enough sample size of African-Americans in the US to make the judgement that they commit crimes against one another at a higher rate than whites, hispanics, asians, etc, etc?

I could see this if there were 100 African-Americans in the US, but there were 45 million of them at the last census and I think there's enough of them committing crimes to compare that crime to other races.

I get your point, regardless. I'm just trying to see how this argument could be made given that the sample size of African-Americans is relatively large. The Love/Jennings comparison sample size is significantly smaller.

Could use some simplification, please.
 
Sure you are...

You're saying that Jennings scores more than Love on a per minute basis; your methodology for doing this is absurd if you're simply dividing points into minutes played without taking anything else into account.

It's easy to understand why this is a flawed argument and not a "fact."

1) the use of the present / future tense "scores" indicates that Jennings has and will score at a higher rate than Love, but doesn't account for opportunity (fga).

2) the discounting of interdependent inputs, like what scoring option this person is in a 5-man rotation. Since you're not arguing that Jennings' team has him score more per minute, but that Jennings himself does this; you need to account for this data.

3) false conclusion; if Love and Jennings are put in a gym against an average defender, who is more likely to score if given equal opportunity?

---------------------
That's part of the argument, yes; but in itself it is not scientifically accurate to state that "Blacks commit crime at a higher rate than any other race," and the methodology used to come to this conclusion here and elsewhere is nonsensical.

You cannot take two interdependent sub-populations of a total population, separate them arbitrarily, and then draw such conclusions with simple division - it is something you'd learn in Stat 101. You need much more complex analysis to draw any real, meaningful, conclusion.

Ok, I think I see what is going on here. If Jennings scores more than Love on a PPM basis, I am not inferring shit. YOU are inferring that I am inferring something. My "methodology" of determining "who scores more on a PPM basis?" was not a methodology, it was a formula. There wasn't a methodology because there wasn't an experiment or statistical inference about what it means. It was a data point.

Now what's going on here is this: you are fighting a data point on black crime rate. You are fighting against a formula. You will lose. Now, what everyone needs to understand is that any inferences that they are making off of this data point are likely confounded and false. I don't know how you got started on this, but I agree that any inferences on that data point are stupid to make, BUT dude, I don't know about why you would pick a fight with the set of data stated.
 
Brandon Jennings scores at a higher rate per minute (i.e. per quantum) than Kevin Love.

It's a near meaningless statement. While the raw data, without any analysis whatsoever other than a simple division of points into minutes might suggest this is the case; it's an entirely false conclusion using flawed maths and making an unsupportable conclusion.
.

I have to applaud you for using the Jennings vs Love argument correctly, but i need you in your next argument to use the following statement somehow:

But it is true to state that Wilt Chamberlin actually scored more off the court than on the court.
 
Ok, I think I see what is going on here. If Jennings scores more than Love on a PPM basis, I am not inferring shit. YOU are inferring that I am inferring something. My "methodology" of determining "who scores more on a PPM basis?" was not a methodology, it was a formula. There wasn't a methodology because there wasn't an experiment or statistical inference about what it means. It was a data point.

Now what's going on here is this: you are fighting a data point on black crime rate. You are fighting against a formula. You will lose. Now, what everyone needs to understand is that any inferences that they are making off of this data point are likely confounded and false. I don't know how you got started on this, but I agree that any inferences on that data point are stupid to make, BUT dude, I don't know about why you would pick a fight with the set of data stated.

Your thinking is what I'm thinking.
 
I think that might not be real in African-American society; as many African-Americans have no illusions of superiority to White Americans. I can probably say, from personal experience, that Asians also have identity issues. Many don't realize it, but skin bleaching and whiteners are common throughout Southeast Asia.

I guess I am not sure what a racist is or what racism is then. I don't think I am superior to anyone based on skin color. At all. I just mean there's a certain cultural comfort and discomfort that people have based on skin color. It might be small on the spectrum for some, but it does exist.
 
Do you agree that there is a higher rate of black on black crime vs any other intra-racial crime?

First off, we're conflating "crime rate" with "propensity to commit crime." Those two concepts are not interchangeable.

But let's go with your assumption here, just for clarity's sake; do "Blacks" commit crime against other "Blacks" at a higher rate than any other race?

Well, nationally? I suppose this might be true.. But what data do you we have to suggest it is?

How many "races" of people really live throughout the United States? In actuality, not many. Asians are not prevalent throughout America, neither are Arab-Americans, Native-Americans, Arab-Americans, etc... So essentially the question as posed is ridiculous.

Instead, look at local regions of populations.

Let's take four examples, with actually racially diverse (not racially polar) populations:

Hawaii, a state I know well, has a 4% African-American population. There are no African-American inner-cities; African-Americans represent 4% of the prison population. One qualifier I'd like to add: the majority of law enforcement, prosecutors and judges in Hawaii are Asian-Americans. There is no disparity here with respect to African-Americans in Hawaii; however, disparity does exist.

Native Hawaiians, in Hawaii, were recorded as accounting for 29% of crimes reported while only being 10% of the population. This speaks to the plight of indigenous people. More aptly, Native-Americans, where they live, can be described in a similar manner.

So no, by looking at Hawaii where there is a great deal of races to compare the question asked would be false.

However, let's contrast that with Vermont. Vermont has a ~1% African-American population, however, as of today almost 10% of Vermont's prison population is African-American - that's a startling disparity. Why is that the case? Was it always the case? In 1997, Vermont's African-American population was roughly the same, but it's prison population was also ~1%. In 2005, the prison population was ~3%. In 2015, the prison population was ~10%.

What accounts for the change? Vermont passed a series of tough on crime / war on drugs bills that resulted in disproportionate stops, charges, and convictions of African-Americans compared to Whites. A study was done of 50,000 traffic stops that showed a pattern of disproportionality to criminal law enforcement, charging and convictions.

Moving on, let's discuss California, where I live now. California has roughly a ~7% "Black" population but doesn't count biracial and multiracial individuals as "Black" so the number is thought to be significantly higher. In essence, I am not considered "Black" in California. Also, self-identification as Black is less common here than it might be in other less ethnically diverse and less liberal, for lack of a better term, areas. So someone who is half-White and half-Black, if they are very light, might identify as "biracial" or "other." Beyond that, there are several hundred thousand "Black" hispanics in California. So in general, the true "Black" population here is unknown, but likely is between 8-10%.

So let's talk crime in California. 16.6% of crimes committed in California are by "Blacks." That's between 1.6-2x disproportionate, depending upon what is "Black" with respect to population. But African-Americans are also 2-2.5x more likely to live in poverty.

Beyond that, there is a much more important factor here...

Remember, 16.6% of crimes committed in California are committed by "Blacks?"

Yet, Blacks were 5x more likely to be incarcerated for a crime than non-White Hispanics and 10x more likely to be incarcerated for a crime than White non-Hispanics. When you factor in recidivism and the very extreme laws against felons in California, it's pretty easy to identify the disparity here.

For the fourth example, instead of looking at a single state, let's look at 8 (+1) states at a glance and talk about disparity.

First, let's look at Iowa, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Wisconsin; we'll call these states Group A. These states all have an average of ~12x the Black/White incarceration rate.

Compare that to Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas; we'll call these states Group B. These states all have an average of ~3.5x the Black/White incarceration rate.

What's the difference between these groups, and how does that difference account for a massive three-fold difference in incarceration rates?

Well, Group A is more liberal, more affluent, and has a higher median income for all it's residents, including African-Americans. Group A also has higher standards of education across the board. Shouldn't they have lower incarceration rates?

The only difference, where we find massive correlation (as in, greater than the next contributor by an order of magnitude), is amount of Blacks in each state and where they live in each state.

Group B, the more conservative, Southern, poorer, less affluent states, have substantially larger Black populations. When we look at county data in a states like Misssissippi, Alabama and Georgia, this becomes obvious. In counties with historically majority Black populations, the incarceration rates for Blacks are not disproportionate.

So the primary component here is race, but not with respect to crime committed, but with respect to how likely someone is to be imprisoned for a given crime. There is still disparity, but that disparity is massively reduced in environments where Blacks are not victims of discrimination. This also speaks to liberal racism, which is another topic in and of itself.

And disregarding your personal beliefs on whether one should be married when they have children or not, do you agree that there is a higher incidence of out of wedlock pregnancies among African-Americans?

Yes. It is statistically equivalent to that of Native Americans 72%-69%. Again, socioeconomic factors are more relevant here, for these two races of people and for obvious reasons I think, than racial issues. When dealing with Latino people, the question of religious adherence is far more relevant. When dealing with Whites, education and opportunity as well as stable environments, housing, and access to credit / finances is more relevant.

So the incidence exists, but it's not meaningful without context.

Do you disagree that children raised without a father present are more likely to struggle psychologically than those that are raised with a strong father figure present?

Upon first approximation, yes, I'd disagree with the claim. I think the assertion is not scientifically sound.

Do you believe that fathers abandoning their children affect the children psychologically as they grow up?

Yes. But demonstrative "abandoning," as you put it, isn't present in any data that I know of.

Do you believe that a father's decision to abandon their children affects the mindset and opportunities of the children and the mother of those children?

Again you use the term "abandon" and I'm honestly confused with how to answer that.

I don't think the majority of children in single-parent homes have been abandoned. I'm not sure what you mean.

Do you believe that on the whole, people's personalities and decision-making are reflective of the way they are raised?

Yes, absolutely.
 
Ok, I think I see what is going on here. If Jennings scores more than Love on a PPM basis, I am not inferring shit. YOU are inferring that I am inferring something. My "methodology" of determining "who scores more on a PPM basis?" was not a methodology, it was a formula. There wasn't a methodology because there wasn't an experiment or statistical inference about what it means. It was a data point.

This is wrong.

Your data points are points scored, minutes played, among thousands of other dependent data points. These represent the observable, empirical data you have.

You perform an operation, for reasons you believe to be sound, on that data to attempt to derive a rate; points per minute.

You then make the logical claim that because more points were scored per minute over a given period, that Jennings scores (again, tense) at a higher rate than Love.

The argument, without qualifiers like (on the Cavs, in 2014-15, when healthy, as the primary option, etc), does not describe reality. I've already explained why this is, but I think you're missing the nuance of the argument.

Now what's going on here is this: you are fighting a data point on black crime rate.

I'm not fighting a data point. I'm arguing, logically, against illogical assertions based on novice misunderstandings of science; particularly with respect to statistics and sociology.

You are fighting against a formula. You will lose.

This is fallacious, and frankly meaningless. It's like saying f=ma describes reality -- it did until it didn't.

Now, what everyone needs to understand is that any inferences that they are making off of this data point are likely confounded and false. I don't know how you got started on this, but I agree that any inferences on that data point are stupid to make, BUT dude, I don't know about why you would pick a fight with the set of data stated.

First off, I think it's important to understand that data is not always accurate, so with respect, I think your assumption here is a bit naive. Secondly, my argument is expressly against the claims being made, based on said data, and I think I've covered it pretty extensively; and to which I might add, no one has even attempted to make a counterargument.

With respect to your concern, if you read my posts you will see the term non sequitur used more than once. I've described the flaws in the observational data, the methodology of comparative analysis being used (simple division over total populations is an asinine approach), and ultimately the conclusions being drawn from this "data."

What you're doing at the moment is essentially an ad hominem; you've not actually argued against my position, but simply imagined a motive on my part and then discounted my argument on the basis that you think I'm being intellectually disingenuous, which is frankly somewhat offensive.

Just argue the point being made, not the man.

As I've said, with respect to mathematics and physics, I have no problem providing an objective, reasoned and frankly educated opinion on the topics at hand. But, in order to do so, you have to actually read my posts and understand the argument I'm making.

Concisely, a claim is being made: Blacks commit more crimes than any other race.

This argument is not factual and is not a "data point;" it is an attempt at an argument - yet it is fallacious and invalid as it is a non-sequitur; there simply is inadequate information within the premise of the argument to make the claim and the conclusion simply does not follow from any observable data we have available.

As far as where I get off arguing the point, I don't think you actually understand what is being argued.. I am not arguing that Blacks haven't committed more crime than Whites, on average, nationally; I've already said that (again, read my posts). What I've said is that there isn't much usefulness or meaning to that data with respect to the claim that was made (Blacks vs any race), for numerous reasons that I've already outlined. Furthermore, that said data is not in itself predictive (again, tense) when considering other factors such as socioeconomic conditions, racial diversity in a given area, incarceration rates, and recidivism rates.

I think the nuance here is being lost.
 
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Your thinking is what I'm thinking.

Which is sad because it shows that a rational argument can't be made against gut feel.

I'm probably wasting my time.
 
I am? Damn, that sucks.. Wish I'd have known...

Yeah, man. This is how it starts. First, you think you're not out of control on a message board. Then, you're telling people they're making buckwheat jokes or quoting Ann Coulter.

I'll comment on your posts later. They're blowing my brain up for now trying to grasp the maths.

While I respect that statistics are the easiest thing to turn to when it comes to crime and reflection of human behavior en masse, I've just never been willing to write off my gut instinct when it comes to the way the human mind works. Particularly as it reacts to parenting and authority.

The way the mind works is impossible to map out on paper, and is extremely difficult to track using numbers of any kind, but I'm very confident just based on intuition that I understand how people's minds work that commit crimes, particularly violent ones.

There is no way for me to prove that to you, however. Not sure that's even worth discussing?
 

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