However, Damian Lillard being traded to Milwaukee; Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis being traded to Boston and Bradley Beal being dealt to Phoenix provided some obstacles for this young core to have to maneuver around to reach their end destination.
But within that, one player holds the key to the Cavs future more than all the others: Evan Mobley. No pressure, right?
The NBA is built on star power – always has been, always will be. For awhile, it required a dominant big such as Shaquille O’Neal or Tim Duncan to even have a fighter’s chance. Then, LeBron James and the Warriors came along and swung the pendulum in the opposite direction.
ESPN came out with their player rankings for the 2023-2024 season. The Celtics have a top-10 player and three in the top-26. The Bucks have the league’s best player, two top-15 players and three total within the top-50. The Nuggets have two top-20 ranked players with the league’s best offensive player and a back-to-back MVP. The Suns have three top-40 players and one of the very best in the league included. The Lakers have two top-10 players.
The Cavs ended up with a top-15 player and four top-50 players. Not bad but likely not good enough.
If there’s any detectable pattern of the teams listed above with the highest odds of winning an NBA championship, it’s that they all have a top-10 NBA player and at least two in the top-20ish. The Cavs have Mitchell at 15, Garland at 36 and Mobley at 40. So close, but not quite.
So, what does this have to do with Mobley?
He has the best chance to attain the levels of stardom required to win at the highest level.
This isn’t taking anything away from Garland, who is good in his own right, or assuming Mitchell will be elsewhere within the next few years. This is simply seeing the potential in Mobley and realizing he has the best bet to break through. And if he can, it changes everything.
Mobley has already made an NBA All-First Team Defense, and finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting all while being the second youngest player ever to make an All-NBA First Team on defense. The youngest? Kobe. The last player to do it within their first or second year in the league was Duncan. It speaks to the talent and accomplishments thus far for Mobley.
Mobley finished first in defensive win shares, fifth in defensive rating, sixth in blocks and 16th in defensive plus minus. Safe to say he has that side of the ball figured out.
Where Mobley’s offensive game takes him truly determines how good he will be and in turn how good the Cavs will be.
Don’t get it twisted: Mobley is already a tremendously valuable and effective offensive player. His offensive numbers were good his rookie year, and then improved across the board his sophomore season.
He’s already an excellent roll threat, possessing the wherewithal to distribute on the short roll. He’s a dangerous vertical threat on pick and rolls because of his length and quick jumping ability. He can push bigs in transition thanks to being light on his feet. Anything around the rim is hard to contest for defenses due to his length and touch.
The makings of an effective offensive big are already there and present. Where the leap comes is being a more consistent offensive threat.
Mobley came into the league drawing Duncan, Chris Bosh, Kevin Garnett, Anthony Davis, etc., comparisons which may ultimately be true someday. And let’s be clear: If he ends up closer to a Bam Adebayo or Jaren Jackson Jr., that is still a tremendously useful and valuable player as well and should not be discounted.
But, in trying to keep up with the league’s elite Mobley’s next step offensively is the quickest, and most efficient way for the Cavs to keep pace.
The Knicks series exposed one of Mobley’s fatal flaws: he’s simply not strong enough to navigate the paint at a consistent level. There are ways around that but for now, asking him to operate at the elbow or low-block typically ends in a fadeaway shot or being pushed off his spot due to lack of strength.
Further confounding the issue is Mobley’s lack of range. It’s one thing to not have the strength (yet) to effectively operate down-low if the range is a consistent threat. It’s another if operating on the perimeter is also not a strong suit.
While Mobley attempted over a three per game last year, his shooting percentages from deep were the one offensive attribute that decreased. He went from 25% on threes to 21.6%. In today’s NBA of pace and space and unicorn bigs, that sticks out.
Depending on if you’re a glass half-full or glass half-empty type of person, you may either see this as being this good this young despite those limitations means there’s only room for improvement or you may see the lack of offensive prowess not being something that be developed overnight to the point the Cavs need it.
I tend to be more of a glass half-full type person myself.
Mobley doesn’t have to be the Al Jefferson of the low-post or the Karl Anthony-Towns of the perimeter to be offensively what the Cavs need – he just has to be good enough at either or both spots.
There were flashes late last year. Such as Mobley having 7 games of 20+ points during the last month of the season whereas he had 11 total the rest of the year.
There’s promises, like Bickerstaff promising to get Mobley more involved on offense. Getting the ball in Mobley hands to be a playmaker will not only help Mobley, it’ll take pressure off Garland and Mitchell, and open up more off-ball opportunities for both. Playing with more pace and space should also provide Mobley with better offensive structure to operate in.
There’s history to consider. Offensive development for bigs can take time. Mobley averaged more points per 100 possessions in his second year than Bosh, Garnett or Adebayo did in their second year. Bosh hit 30+ points per 100 possessions his third year, Garnett his seventh and Adebayo also in his seventh.
So how good is good enough?
The lowest scoring player within ESPN’s NBA Rank top-10 was Anthony Davis at 25.95 points per game. Mobley was at 16.2 last year. That jump may be too steep in one year. In his third year, Garnett averaged 18.5 per game – that may be more realistic.
Garland’s ascension and Mitchell’s continued ascension may not require Mobley to make the leap 30 spots from 40th best player to top-10 this year, but the quicker the Mobley ascension comes, the sooner a deep playoff run is within reach.
Ultimately, where the Cavs end up may be a result of Mobley in the driver’s seat.
Buckle up.
