nime
Boilermaker
- Joined
- Oct 29, 2007
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Baseball America
<TABLE style="BORDER-BOTTOM: rgb(237,23,76) 1px solid; BORDER-LEFT: rgb(237,23,76) 1px solid; MARGIN: 0px 0px 2px 2px; BORDER-TOP: rgb(237,23,76) 1px solid; BORDER-RIGHT: rgb(237,23,76) 1px solid" class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=275 bgColor=#ebebeb align=right><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>TOP TEN
PROSPECTS
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>1.</TD><TD>Carlos Santana, c</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2.</TD><TD>Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3.</TD><TD>Nick Hagadone, lhp</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>4.</TD><TD>Jason Knapp, rhp</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>5.</TD><TD>Michael Brantley, of</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>6.</TD><TD>Nick Weglarz, of</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>7.</TD><TD>Hector Rondon, rhp</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>8.</TD><TD>Carlos Carrasco, rhp</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>9.</TD><TD>Alex White, rhp</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>10.</TD><TD>Jason Kipnis, 2b/of</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>BEST
TOOLS
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Hitter for Average</TD><TD noWrap>Michael Brantley</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Power Hitter</TD><TD noWrap>Nick Weglarz</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Strike-Zone Discipline</TD><TD noWrap>Carlos Santana</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Fastest Baserunner</TD><TD noWrap>Delvi Cid</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Athlete</TD><TD noWrap>Michael Brantley</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Fastball</TD><TD noWrap>Nick Hagadone</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Curveball</TD><TD noWrap>Alexander Perez</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Slider</TD><TD noWrap>Nick Hagadone</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Changeup</TD><TD noWrap>Carlos Carrasco</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Control</TD><TD noWrap>Hector Rondon</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Defensive Catcher</TD><TD noWrap>Carlos Santana</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Defensive Infielder</TD><TD noWrap>Jason Donald</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Infield Arm</TD><TD noWrap>Carlos Rivero</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Defensive Outfielder</TD><TD noWrap>Jordan Henry</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Best Outfield Arm</TD><TD noWrap>Matt Brown</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>PROJECTED 2013
LINEUP
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Catcher</TD><TD noWrap>Carlos Santana</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>First Base</TD><TD noWrap>Matt LaPorta</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Second Base</TD><TD noWrap>Luis Valbuena</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Third Base</TD><TD noWrap>Lonnie Chisenhall</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Shortstop</TD><TD noWrap>Asdrubal Cabrera</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Left Field</TD><TD noWrap>Michael Brantley</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Center Field</TD><TD noWrap>Grady Sizemore</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Right Field</TD><TD noWrap>Shin-Soo Choo</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Designated Hitter</TD><TD noWrap>Nick Weglarz</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>No. 1 Starter</TD><TD noWrap>Nick Hagadone</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>No. 2 Starter</TD><TD noWrap>Jason Knapp</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>No. 3 Starter</TD><TD noWrap>Hector Rondon</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>No. 4 Starter</TD><TD noWrap>Justin Masterson</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>No. 5 Starter</TD><TD noWrap>Carlos Carrasco</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Closer</TD><TD noWrap>Alex White</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>TOP PROSPECTS
OF THE DECADE
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Year</TD><TD>Player, Position</TD><TD align=right>2009</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2000</TD><TD>C.C. Sabathia, lhp</TD><TD align=right>Yankees</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2001</TD><TD>C.C. Sabathia, lhp</TD><TD align=right>Yankees</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2002</TD><TD>Corey Smith, 3b</TD><TD align=right>Royals</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2003</TD><TD>Brandon Phillips, ss/2b</TD><TD align=right>Reds</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2004</TD><TD>Grady Sizemore, of</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2005</TD><TD>Adam Miller, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2006</TD><TD>Adam Miller, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2007</TD><TD>Adam Miller, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2008</TD><TD>Adam Miller, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2009</TD><TD>Carlos Santana, c</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>TOP DRAFT PICKS
OF THE DECADE
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Year</TD><TD noWrap>Player, Position</TD><TD align=right>2009</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2000</TD><TD noWrap>Corey Smith, 3b</TD><TD align=right>Royals</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2001</TD><TD noWrap>Dan Denham, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Angels</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2002</TD><TD noWrap>Jeremy Guthrie, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Orioles</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2003</TD><TD noWrap>Michael Aubrey, 1b</TD><TD align=right>Orioles</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2004</TD><TD noWrap>Jeremy Sowers, lhp</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2005</TD><TD noWrap>Trevor Crowe, of</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2006</TD><TD noWrap>David Huff, lhp (1st supplemental)</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2007</TD><TD noWrap>Beau Mills, 3b/1b</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2008</TD><TD noWrap>Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>2009</TD><TD noWrap>Alex White, rhp</TD><TD align=right>Indians</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>LARGEST BONUSES
IN CLUB HISTORY
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Danny Baez, 1999</TD><TD align=right>$4,500,000</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jeremy Guthrie, 2002</TD><TD align=right>$3,000,000</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jeremy Sowers, 2004</TD><TD align=right>$2,475,000</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Alex White, 2009</TD><TD align=right>$2,250,000</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Michael Aubrey, 2003</TD><TD align=right>$2,010,000</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ed174c align=middle>INDIANS
LINKS
</TD></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=small border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>Indians' Team Page</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>Indians Top 10 Scouting Reports </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>Last Year's Indians Top 10 Prospects</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>2009 Draft: Indians (Basic Database)</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>2009 Draft: Indians (Advanced Database)</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>2009 Draft Report Cards: Cleveland Indians </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>Complete Index of Top 10 Prospects</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD align=middle>Pre-Order the 2010 Prospect Handbook</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
The Indians thought a few better players or even better fortune would get them to the playoffs. After all, they had scored more runs than they allowed in each of the previous five seasons, which included a pair of 90-plus win campaigns.
The 2009 season disavowed them of that belief.
Cleveland tied Kansas City for last place in the American League Central with a 65-97 record, their worst mark since 1991 and a performance that ultimately cost manager Eric Wedge his job.
The Indians went outside the organization for his replacement, hiring Manny Acta, who went 158-252 (.385) while managing the Nationals for parts of the last three seasons.
Acta tried to oversee a rebuilding effort in Washington, and that's what he has on his hands in Cleveland. The 2009 Indians had a middle-of-the-road offense, but the Orioles and Nationals were the only teams in baseball that allowed more runs.
Cleveland was plagued by poor pitching from both starters and relievers, and a defense that ranked 27th in the majors in defensive efficiency.
Things look better in the farm system, where the Indians have one of the deepest collections of prospects around. Much of that talent came via the trade market, including five of their top eight prospects: catcher Carlos Santana, lefthander Nick Hagadone, righthanders Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco and outfielder Michael Brantley.
Those players didn't come cheaply, however, as they were parts of deals including the two Game One starters in the 2009 World Series—Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia—as well as three-time all-star Victor Martinez and solid veteran Casey Blake.
Smaller deals that shipped off Rafael Betancourt, Mark DeRosa and Ryan Garko during the 2009 season provided additional depth.
The Indians are developing an intriguing group of homegrown Latin American players, most notably Venezuelan righthander Hector Rondon, Dominican lefty Kelvin de la Cruz and Venezuelan shortstop Carlos Rivero.
But Cleveland was burned in Latin America last year when it found out that Dominican shortstop Jose Ozoria, who was believed to be 16 when he signed for $575,000 in 2008, was actually three years older and named Wuali Bryan.
While the Indians have built an impressive farm system, trading away big leaguers in exchange for prospects every year isn't a sustainable model for competing.
They realize they need to get more out of their drafts, especially now that they're picking fifth overall in 2010.
It's Cleveland's highest draft position since taking Paul Shuey second overall in 1992, and it will have to get more than the last time it had a top-10 choice and drafted Jeremy Sowers sixth overall in 2004.
The Indians have a strong nucleus of up-the-middle talent to build around, with Grady Sizemore in center field, Asdrubal Cabrera at shortstop and Santana soon to arrive behind the plate.
In the short term, one of the Indians' most important tasks will be to improve their run prevention. The Indians don't have any defensive stalwarts on the cusp of the major leagues, but they do have Rondon and Carrasco close to helping the major league starting rotation and several potentially useful bullpen arms nearly ready to offer relief.
Baseball Prospectus
Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHP
Four More:
12. Jess Todd, RHP: Todd is a short, squat reliever acquired from the Cardinals, and one who reached the big leagues in short order, but his ceiling is probably as a seventh-, maybe eighth-inning set-up man.
13. Nick Weglarz, OF: Two years of non-performance have dropped him significantly, as a ton of walks can only get you so far. As a first baseman or left fielder, Weglarz needs to show more.
14. T.J. House, LHP: He was an over-slot lefty from 2008 who showed solid stuff in his full-season debut; he’s a good breakout candidate.
15. Jason Donald, SS: He's always been a bit overrated, and profiles best as a nice utility type.
John Sickels MinorLeagueball.com
1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade A: Needs a bit more polish with the glove, but looks like a future star to me. Bat looks awesome.
2) Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Grade B+: Coming along nicely with his beautiful swing, though I suspect he's two years away from being ready to help.
3) Nick Hagadone, LHP, Grade B: I'm assuming that the Tommy John recovery is complete and that he can take on a larger workload in 2010. Could push into B+/A- category if all goes well.
4) Alex White, RHP, Grade B: Need to see how pro adaptation goes, but like Hagadone he has B+/A- potential a year from now.
5) Hector Rondon, RHP, Grade B: Ceiling isn't quite that of Hagadone and White, but he's a solid guy and will be ready sooner. Scouts complain about secondary pitches being erratic, but he throws strikes with the heater.
6) Michael Brantley, OF, Grade B-: Borderline B. I've been pushing Brantley as a prospect since he came out of high school, due to his patience/contact/speed combination. My only concern is that his lack of power will relegate him to a fourth outfielder role.
7) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B-: Hard to grade given his very erratic track record. He'll look awesome at times, awful at others, you never know what you're going to get. Could be Rookie of the Year. . .or he could post a 5.00 ERA in Triple-A.
8) Nick Weglarz, OF, Grade B-: Like Carrasco, he's hard to rank. When he's going good Weglarz is a monster power hitter with great patience. But injuries hamper him and his body could go bad easily.
9) Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B-: Would rank higher on pure stuff alone, but I'm afraid his arm might fall off.
10) T.J. House, LHP, Grade B-: Aggressive ranking that others may not share, but he made a successful pro debut in full-season ball with no rookie league experience, has a live arm, and is a lefty. Breakthrough candidate for 2010.
11) Jason Kipnis, 2B-OF, Grade C+: Borderline B- due to his bat, but I want to see how the second base conversion goes in real games.
12) Lou Marson, C, Grade C+: I respect his defense and his contact hitting ability, and he'll have a long career. But I just don't think he'll hit for enough power to be as good as his partisans expect. Will hold down the fort until Santana is ready.
13) Zach Putnam, RHP, Grade C+: Will reportedly move back to starting role, where he projects as an inning-eater type. I like him.
14) Tony Sipp, LHP, Grade C+: Under the 50-inning limit. At worst a very impressive LOOGY, but he gets right-handers out too. If his command sharpens up, he could end up with some saves.
15) Josh Judy, RHP, Grade C+: Hard-throwing reliever with some command, could help in the bullpen very soon and deserves more attention than he's received.
16) Jess Todd, RHP, Grade C+: Didn't look good in Cleveland, but was excellent in Triple-A. Gets grounders, will get more chances.
17) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Grade C+: This is a good pickup from Tampa. An older prospect, but assuming his elbow is OK, he could pull a Randy Wells in 2010. Has nothing left to prove in Triple-A.
18) Scott Barnes, LHP, Grade C+: Strike-throwing deceptive lefty could be fourth starter. Nice pickup from Giants.
19) Eric Berger, LHP, Grade C+: Strike-throwing deceptive lefty could be fourth starter.
20) Jason Donald, SS-2B Grade C+: Injuries hampered him last year. If healthy, could be a fine utility infielder or a short-term starter at second base.
21) Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher than some of the others on upside alone, but is further away from the majors and has to prove he's healthy.
22) Conor Graham, RHP, Grade C+: Amazing movement and velocity, but needs better control. Nice pickup from Rockies.
23) Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, Grade C+: Finesse righty could be useful utility pitcher/fourth-fifth starter.
24) Alex Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Projectable arm is breakthrough candidate.
OTHERS: (Grade C): Abner Abreu, OF; Hector Ambriz, RHP; Jesus Brito, 3B; Jordan Brown, OF-1B; Clayton Cook, RHP; Paulo Espino, RHP; Joe Gardner, RHP; Jordan Henry, OF; Wes Hodges, 3B; Matt McBride, C-OF; T.J. McFarland, LHP; Beau Mills, 1B; Yohan Pino, RHP; Carlos Rivero, SS; Donnie Webb, OF.
I originally indentified 65 guys who could have been written up as at least Grade C prospects, and it was tough to whittle that down.
Let's start with the hitters. At the top you have Santana, who has everything needed to be a star, and Chisenhall, who is a bit behind him but highly promising. Brantley has been a personal favorite for a long time. Weglarz is something of an enigma, and there's some risk he could devolve into a Quadruple-A slugger. He could also become Jim Thome. I've never been really wild about Marson but he's fine to catch until Santana is ready, and at worst he'll make a wonderful backup. Same with Donald, the other former Phillie who could be a good utility guy but still has a chance to start if '09 was an injury-induced slippage. The hitting is thinner than the pitching and they could use some impact bats beyond the top two.
But the pitching. . .wow, there is a lot of depth in pitching. Hagadone and White have terrific ceilings, even if both still have some unanswered questions. Rondon should also be very good. Carrasco is an enigma, but one that is worth taking a chance on. There is just a huge variety of C+ arms beyond this group, mixing up guys with hot stuff, guys with projection, and guys with pitchability.
All told, the Indians need more depth in impact talent, but they have an enormous number of C+ and intriguing C prospects. They mine Latin America, they've done well in trades, and they pick up some sleepers (Sipp, Judy, House, Berger) in the draft. If Chisenhall and White lives up to their billing, perhaps that presages improvement in the early impact rounds as well.
Gotta love the amount of talent the team has again in the minors.
Carlos Santana was a joy to watch in Akron this past year. He could be in Cleveland by July.
This year feels like 2004 again when we had Vic and Hafner up and waiting on Sizemore.
It would be nice to sign Grady longterm. Keep this new core together with Grady the vet.
Future Offense
OF: Brantley, Grady, Choo
INF: Lonnie 3rd, Cabrera SS, Valbuena 2nd, LaPorta 1st
DH: Welgarz
It will be fun to watch Hagadone, White, Rondon, Gomez, Berger, De La Cruz, House, and Alexander Perez this year.