gourimoko
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Cityeon Director @gourimoko is a wizard with trades.
M. Gouri, could you explain to the lads how the Cavs can land Kemba and Howard without using the Nets pick?
Sure..
So, to get Kemba, George AND keep one of either the BKN pick OR Kevin Love; effectively you'd need a few things to be true:
1) Charlotte is still willing to attach Kemba to massive salary relief (i.e., Howard+MKG+Williams or Batum+; here we will assume worst case scenario, Batum+Howard)
2a) George is willing to opt-in and be traded, or
2b) If George isn't willing to opt-in; and demands a max contract, then LeBron has to take a paycut.
For the Hornets, the incentive to trade Kemba for salary is less enticing going into this upcoming season - so the time to make such a trade may have passed at the deadline; however, if they're still willing, we can map out how that would work...
Cavs could trade Hill, Smith, Thompson, Osman, Nance and $5.1M in salary (+potential pick from Thunder, depending) for Kemba, Howard, and Batum. The Hornets would likely prefer not to take back Thompson but instead Clarkson; that works too -- at the end of this analysis, just add the ~$5M salary difference in to the Cavs salary. But for now, let's assume they're okay taking Thompson if we include a pick from OKC.
For the Hornets, they're unloading an insane amount of salary in Batum; they're moving Howard off the team (he won't want to remain for a rebuild); they're getting back Nance for Howard which is a much better asset, and Nance is worth a first round pick. They're also getting back Cedi Osman, who looks like he could develop into a quality NBA-caliber wing.
If they could get a pick back, then that would fulfill Jordan's stated requirements for a Kemba trade (last deadline -- which, again, may not be the case any longer).
For the Cavs, we'd be sending out $56M and taking back $62M, so a net total of +$6M in salary. We'd be sending out 5 players and taking back 3, so we'd be -2 on the roster.
So immediately after this Hornets trade, the Cavs would have a salary commitment of $110.9M ... that's without LeBron signed.
To free up salary, the Cavs can stretch Batum's remaining 3 years over 7 years (3x2+1) reducing their cap hit to $10.96M/yr... It's a hefty price to pay, but this should also explain exactly why the Hornets hope to get from under this burden (because Batum is not opting out, or taking less).
This would immediately free up $14M in cap space. It actually would be slightly more than this given the set-off clause and since Batum would play again -- but it's likely that Batum would sign for the vet min over the next 3 seasons anyway, so the Cavs would be paying him to basically play on the team of his choice.
Again, see why the Hornets would be thrilled to be rid of his contract?
But by stretch/waiving Batum, the Cavs go $32M under the apron, having a payroll of ~$96.85M (pre-LeBron).
At this point, a few things can happen:
1) George opts-in and requests a trade; Cavs trade Love for George straight-up (OKC would prefer Love to the BKN pick, IMHO).
Cavs send out $24M, take back $20.7M, actually gain $3.3M in space below the apron. Cavs can resign LeBron to the full max and only be slightly in the tax (but the repeater tax)..
This isn't a sign-and-trade, and the Cavs would have they're exceptions to use to fill out the roster.
To salary would be right at the apron, or $129M.
2) George opts-out, and requests a sign-and-trade at the max.
Cavs would trade Love+Korver for George+OKC first (to go to the Hornets); Cavs are hardcapped and could sign James to a max of $33.5M - $1M (2 roster slots), so $32.5M. It might behoove James to take somewhat less so that the Cavs could use the BAE ($3.6M) or the tMLE ($5.6M) to acquire some more talent; but that'd be his call to make.
A more preferrable option in my opinion would be to change the trade from Love+Korver (which is better for OKC) to Love+Clarkson (which, IMHO, is better for the Cavs) since Kemba, James, and George can all create their own offense. Doing it this way creates $5M in additional space below the apron
So that gives you the following three outcomes:
George Opts In (Love traded):
------------------
James $35.6M (max)
Howard $25M
George $20.7M
Clarkson $12.5M
Kemba $12M
Korver: $7.5M
Zizic: $1.9M
Hood: $3.6M (QO)
4 Slots $2.2M
**Batum's Ghost $11M
- Cavs salary pre-LeBron = $94.2M
- Cavs can sign James to the max
- Cavs still have tMLE and vet min exceptions
George Opts Out (Love+Clarkson traded):
------------------
James $34.9M (or less)
George $30.3M
Howard $25M
Kemba $12M
Korver $7.5M
Zizic: $1.9M
Hood: $3.6M (QO)
5 Slots $2.75M
**Batum's Ghost $11M
- Cavs salary = $91.36M ($37.64M below the apron)
- Cavs can sign James to up $34.9M (slightly below the max)
- Cavs would have exceptions if James took a paycut, or if they chose to cut salary.
- Cavs don't need to bring back Hood, and could trade Korver in a salary dump.
- Trading Korver makes the most sense here.
- Cavs are hard-capped.
George Opts Out (Love+Korver traded):
------------------
James $30M (or less)
George $30.3M
Howard $25M
Clarkson $12.5M
Kemba $12M
Zizic: $1.9M
Hood: $3.6M (QO)
5 Slots $2.75M
**Batum's Ghost $11M
- Cavs salary = $96.3M ($32.7M below the apron)
- Cavs can sign James to up $30M (slightly below the max)
- Cavs likely would not have exceptions without James taking a paycut.
- Cavs don't need to bring back Hood, and could maybe trade Clarkson in a salary dump.
- Trading Clarkson makes the most sense here.
- Cavs are hard-capped.
So in the sign-and-trade scenarios, you'd likely see the Cavs try to get minor players back from the Hornets and Thunder so as to fill roster slots; and of course, it becomes easier if James does what Durant did and takes a paycut.
And yes, assuming the Hornets went along; after all of this, the Cavs would still have the BKN pick. The only problem there is that, to get someone like Beal, as you can see from the above salary situation, you'd almost assuredly need George to opt-in in order to add the $25M in salary; otherwise you'd need James to take a very steep almost $15M+ paycut...
FWIW, to get Beal on the above teams, you'd end up trading Clarkson+Korver+BKN for Beal (making the Love/George trade straight up). You would not bring back Hood, and you'd have less than $20M remaining to sign LeBron.
All in all, this becomes much easier if George opts-in.
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