Now, let's get
REALLY thorough (I wish we had easy access to full-game footage, even if just PS).
First, let's consider something. What makes Lebron, Lebron? Above all else? It is his drive-and-kick game. Make no mistake about it, this is the core of who Lebron is, exceptional first-step quickness/explosion to beat defenders off the dribble, get to the basket and finish at 70-80% (which is Shaq/Barkley-esque, except being able to do this from the perimeter is perhaps even more significant). As a result, defenses MUST collapse (smarter defenses make more drastic adjustments, which can succeed or backfire, case in point 2013 Spurs games 1/2/3/5/6 vs. 4/7), which leaves shooters open and creates seams for cutters, and Lebron, with his exceptional vision and physical passing ability, is able to find these guys for easy, high-percentage buckets, or those guys can dish out a hockey assist to an even better basket (which is still created by Lebron's penetration).
This is where the bulk of his +/- or RAPM impact comes from, everything else (shooting ability, post-game, movement, etc.) is all secondary/tertiary, it is meant to complement/supplement this or to have additional options available (for both stamina and strategy).
I understand that this seems like I'm pointing out the obvious here, but reiterating all of this makes it easier to make my next point.
2011 and 2012 Lebron
don't quite have this ability! Or better yet, drastically lack it to the degree that the other versions I'm specifically championing (09/10/13/14/15) do. Let's say the hypothetical perfect offensive player is a +8. Lebron's offense in his top years is in the vicinity of +5-6.5, and no player ever has really gone
too far beyond that range (Bird/Nash/Jordan/Magic). And let's say in 2009, at his slashing best, his drive-and-kick game makes up +2.75 of that 5-6.5. Here's how I would rate 09-15 relative to 2009.
2009 - 100
2010 - 98
2011 - 25
2012 - 35
2013 - 60
2014 - 80
2015 - 75
Before we move forward with this, my explanation as to
why 2011 and 2012 are so far below the pack is his weight gain. There's already been an extensive thread and extensive discussion on his athletic/explosive/quickness dropoff in 2011 and 2012. He added mass, lost his quickness and upper body control and diminished as a slasher (unable to blow-by most defenders unless he got a switch on a particularly immobile big, not agile at high/quick speeds to wind through defenses, lacking the body control to be the level of finisher he once was). In 2012 he dropped a bit of weight, and there was a minor improvement but nothing dramatic. 2013 OTOH, he dropped a considerable amount of weight, and then shed a bit more in 2014 as well, to the point where he was a drastically more effective slasher in those years.
HE CAN STILL LEAP OUT OF THE BUILDING THOUGH PLEASE LET'S NOT BRUSH THIS ALL OFF WITH HIGHLIGHTS OF LEBRON JUMPING OVER JOHN LUCAS III I CAN'T TELL YOU HOW MANY TIMES MY ENTIRE ARGUMENTS HAVE BEEN NULLIFIED WITH SILLY DUNKING HIGHLIGHT VIDEOS.
Again, I wish we had better available game footage, but at least pay close attention to the highlights (maybe I'll try to dig out some examples that make this clear). 2012 Lebron is not frequently creating baskets through slashing; he's gotten very smart at finding backdoor cuts, he's dabbling in the post a little more than before, and but his jumper, while solid, is inconsistent and not quite as good as it was in the three previous years or the two following ones.
This means that his bread-and-butter as described above, the drive-and-kick game is
heavily diminished. Why should that matter you say? If he can still put up 27 and 6 assists on 61% TS and 30 and 5 assists on 58% TS against solid competition in the playoffs? Why should the method matter if he can still put up the production in other ways? Because those 27/6 and 30/5 are being produced on like 30 possessions, and Lebron plays 70-85 possessions a game (higher end in the playoffs), and the amount of impact he has on those leftover 40-55 possessions is greatly diminished when his primary offensive option is 35% as good as it once was.
That +2.75 from slashing has now become less than a +1. How would we rate out the rest of 09's offensive game?
2009
-Improved jumpshot over previous years following the Olympics. This changes the way defenders cover him, because while they have to give him space to cover the drive, they can't give him too much because now he's better at hitting them with some space. Plus he's also a solid 3-point shooter so he can space the floor a little bit and occasionally pullup from outside as well. Let's say his improved jumpshot adds +1.
-Playmaking and pick-and-roll play. He can run/operate an offense from the top like a PG. He can manipulate defensive rotations to create ideal matchups for his teammates with playcalling, run the PnR with the threat to drive, hit the roll man, hit the pop man, or pullup himself with his better jumper OR sell any one of these actions, force a missed rotation/over-commital by the defenders and find an open basket or three-pointer. Let's say this is a +1.50.
-Primitive post-game, decent off-ball game (doesn't get to showcase much given how much Cleveland relies on him to create) He's better at both in 2010, I'd say these sum to break-even.
-Transition game. Best fastbreak finisher in the league, can finish in either direction, go through, over, or blow by defenders, and is arguably one of the best at finding leading AND trailing teammates as well. Even cleans up the glass on the trail on occasion. Still, fastbreak possessions are hard to come by and even more rare in the postseason. Let's say this is an additional +0.25.
Summary
Slashing +2.75
Shooting +1.0
PnR/Playmaking +1.50
Transition +0.25
Post/Off-Ball +0.0
Overall +5.5. Best offensive player in the league in a season where Wade, Paul, Kobe are peaking
2010
I think he's like a quarter step slower, but all skills have been refined, I would go:
Slashing +2.75
Shooting +1.25
PnR/Playmaking +1.50
Transition +0.25
Post/Off-Ball +0.25
Overall +6.0. Best offensive player in the league (Nash has a monster year as well) and entering offensive GOAT territory
2011
-Major dropoff in athleticism. Halfcourt slashing game just isn't there anymore (
he can get to the basket with an open lane though), though in semi-transition with a head of steam he can still barrel through and get to the basket (though his offensive foul rate shoots up this year) but he's not quite as good a finisher as before or later either (too much upper body mass, not enough body control/contortion ability to avoid/dodge defenders/deterrence). All this means that defenses aren't as worried about his basket pressure, they don't have to collapse unless he attacks, and he doesn't really attack, and there's not a lot of preventive measures anymore either (strong side overload, packing the paint, heavy shading, icing the PnR, etc.), and thus the teammates off the ball are just not getting the kind of looks that the other Lebron's would be able to provide them with his penetration. I've rated his slashing +0.50, 25% of his 09 peak.
-Shooting is pretty much improved across the board except for a couple issues. The 3 point shot isn't quite as good as 2010, where he was so deadly off the dribble and spotting up. He's also not quite as good at actually using his dribble to create them because A.) he no longer has the threat of the drive to force defenders to give space and B.) the added weight has also affected his coordination, which hampers his ball-handling a little bit, so he can't use the dribble as effectively to create separation. But everywhere else he's clearly better, his jumpshot anywhere from 10-23 feet is crazy deadly, in the 2011 calendar year he was shooting nearly 49% from that range and following the all-star break, ~55% (!!). Overall, I credit him +1.25 for shooting, accounting for both shifts.
-ITO playmaking and PnR play, the slashing dropoff has just made his overall creation game weaker. Now he's relegated to pretty much only relying on defenders over-committing, and/or taking advantage of his better midrange jumpshot on the pullup. He's still got his vision/passing ability, so you can bet when he sees a seam or opportunity for a teammate, he's going to capitalize, BUT the problem is he's no longer
creating as many opportunities (Elgee actually used to track this, perhaps he still does). I rate this a +1.00.
-Transition game is interesting. On one hand, he's got better teammates to dish it to in Wade/Bosh (though Varejao, Hickson, etc. were solid finishers in their own right). On the other hand, he's not quite as good a finisher at the basket, although when he's got that head of steam, he's still pretty much unstoppable. I'd still rate him at +0.25 for transition offense, he's still probably the amongst the deadliest open-court players in the league.
-Post-game is weaker than 2010, when he had begun playmaking in the low-post (or draw fouls) and used the mid-post face-up game as he was able to use a quick explosive step to get to the basket. Off-ball game is slightly better later in the season, when he learns to take advantage of the attention Wade/Bosh can receive in their own two-man game or even just on Wade drives, and starts to find quick and easy cuts to the basket. I rate this about the same as 2010, gain in one area, loss in the other. +0.25
Summary
Slashing +0.50
Shooting +1.25
PnR/Playmaking +1.00
Transition +0.25
Post/Off-Ball +0.25
Overall +3.25
Major dropoff (and one of the weaker offensive seasons of his career, IMO even 06 and 08 are better). Notice how much he relies on easy/opportunistic buckets, and his self-creation is limited to shooting.
THIS is the biggest reason for his major dip in scoring in the postseason. Luckily he was near his defensive peak. Also, just to be clear, this is still an
elite offensive player, heck you start seeing all-star selections at the +2.0 threshold overall, and Lebron's +3.25 on just offense. What it isn't is best in the league type of offense (In 2011 Wade, Dirk, Paul, Nash are absolutely better, Durant, Kobe are probably better, and guys like Rose and Westbrook are not far below him).
2012
-The good: he's shed some weight, and isn't quite as inadequate as before AND he's also started to refine/add to his skillset in order to try to combat the athletic dropoff. The bad: that weight gain isn't enough, and his new skills aren't quite polished yet.
-Slashing, slightly better than 2011 but still pretty lacking. I still see him as incapable of consistently breaking defenders down off the dribble, and very rarely do we see blowbys (though unlike 2011, we at least see them). Again, with a head of steam from full or halfcourt (in semi-transition OR when he brings the ball up himself) he can manage to blow through defenders and get to the basket, but from a standstill in the halfcourt? Almost no chance, he's more likely going to just try and run PnR or isolate and jack up a jumpshot. Still very little drive-and-kick and again, this means fewer open shots created by him at large volume. He's a little quicker/better than 2011, he's smart enough to get advantageous switches on the PnR to draw bigs that he can occasionally drive by, but its nowhere near the same as what we're about to see in the next season. I give his slashing game a +0.75 for this year.
-Shooting is interesting. He starts off hot for the first few weeks, then if I recall correctly, injures his hand and doesn't quite look the same again for the rest of the season (and really struggles in the playoffs). He starts the season not shooting much at all, particularly 3 pointers, which I wasn't a fan of (a lot of those 3s just got replaced by long 2s instead), and then spends the rest of the season being really selective with his 3 point shooting, preferring to take wide open ones and often passing up those that would hurt his %. Typical intuition says that this is smart, but the problem is that he's often passing these up late in the shot clock for worse shots for his teammates, rather than simply dishing it to a better shot; in those cases I'd rather he just take them. This makes his % look rather nice, but he couldn't continue doing this in the postseason and it showed in the numbers. Mid-range shooting itself sees a similar struggle especially the long 2s, but he does improve his actual on-ball shot creation ability, incorporating rocker-steps, jabs, fakes, etc. to throw off defenders and buy himself some space. However, impressively, his inner midrange game (5-15 feet) thrives, and I'll get to this a little more when discussing the post-game. Overall though, I dock him from 2011 for his shooting, and the close-range shooting points will be awarded in the post-category. +1.00
-PnR/Playmaking. I don't see much change from 2011. Slightly better at taking advantage of seams created on the PnR because he's a little bit quicker than the year before, but his jumpshot is worse when trying to pullup. +1.00
-I've separated post-game and off-ball game now, as he's made decent strides in both. Lets talk post first. So, as Quotatious said, this is the first year he really starts utilizing this. That's a key statement because A.) it means he's not quite that great at yet it but also B.) it adds a completely new avenue in his game (new tool against defenses and a whole new way to playmake). So yeah he starts using this now, he's
really good at getting good and ideal positioning for himself because of his lower-body strength, and that also allows him to work against stronger defenders when he's down there, which means he can now very effectively be played at the PF. Of course we later see teams adjust to this positional change in the following seasons but in 2012, teams weren't quite ready for this. His game is relatively limited though, power-down weaker/smaller defenders and get inside and finish, tries the jump-hook but isn't consistent with it and doesn't use it game-to-game, loves the counter (the jumper over the right-shoulder) so much that it practically becomes his go-to option in the playoffs (and he's awesome at it, shot like 47-48% for the year from the 10-15 ft range) as he gets SO much elevation on the jumpshot. Kind of a problem though, because he just doesn't really go middle (though he's also got a nice little floater for secondary rotating bigs), and doesn't have the drop-step of later years when going baseline to be able to get right to the rim. He hasn't begun to gobble up attention yet, but he's still exceptional at recognizing when defenders will turn their attention to him (often from the weak side corner) and finds open shooters on reversal AND finds guys in position to pass it to an open[er] man (hockey-assist). This is a dynamic and important addition to the toolbox and one that would develop and thrive later on. +0.5
-Off-ball game is also blooming. He's gotten comfortable and frequent with the backdoor cuts and is better at
just moving, which, given his threat to finish (much easier to get to the basket off the ball than on it), can throw defenses into complete distortion. He's also starting to actively set screens, be the roll/pop man on the PnR (mostly with Wade - which is impossible to defend - but also a bit with Chalmers), and this is also the season where he was a presence on the offensive glass. This gets a +0.75.
-Transition is again about the same. Honestly it's probably been roughly the same year-in-year-out, he's pretty consistent on this front. +0.25
Summary
Slashing +0.75
Shooting +1.00
PnR/Playmaking +1.00
Transition +0.25
Post-game +0.5
Off-Ball +0.75
Overall +4.5. Elite offensive player, best in the league level (Durant and Paul are rather impressive as well this season). Note that his assists are down due to A.) cut in slashing, B.) more frequent post-play so more hockey assists and C.) more off-ball play so less time spent playmaking from the perimeter.
. But let me offer a little more cerebral stance.
