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MKC: With Manziel's upside uncertain, Browns will look at all QB options
- Thread starter MoFlo
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http://beta.espn.go.com/nfl/insider...prove-elusive-philadelphia-eagles-nfl/insider
Missing the playoffs has put the Philadelphia Eagles in the wrong kind of exclusive company. This Eagles team will go down in NFL history with the 2008 Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the only ones since divisional realignment in 2002 to turn a 9-3 record into an early offseason. Forty-three other 9-3 teams went on to qualify for postseason play, including four this season.
The way things unraveled for Philadelphia, the Eagles' quarterback situation is going to be front and center this offseason. The pivotal interception Mark Sanchez threw during a 27-24 defeat at previously 3-11 Washington in Week 16 was his 10th since replacing the injured Nick Foles at midseason. Sanchez can become a free agent. Foles is an option, but not necessarily the answer.
What's next at quarterback for coach Chip Kelly and the Eagles? Here we run through some of the options while explaining why the odds are strongly against Philadelphia upgrading from the status quo. It's the first of 10 takeaways from a Week 16 that brought clarity to the playoff picture while raising longer-term questions in Philly and elsewhere.
1. Upgrading at quarterback will be difficult for the Eagles
• Draft options: The Eagles are one of six teams to lose their past three games, but with nine victories, they stand 18th in the projected draft order entering Week 17. Closing with a road defeat against the New York Giants would not push them high enough in the order to realistically contend for Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who would be an obvious fit for Kelly's offense. Trading up is a long shot for a couple reasons. One, QB-needy teams drafting ahead of the Eagles could resist trading down. Two, it's no sure thing the Eagles would want to trade up when they know first-round picks succeed about 60 percent of the time, which means having additional picks is usually better than having a single higher pick.
• Free-agent options: The list of projected free agents will shrink as teams re-sign veteran backups. Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck and Michael Vick are the most accomplished veterans without contracts for next season. Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett and Colt McCoy are the relatively young recent draft choices with varying degrees of upside. None of those players looks like an automatic upgrade from Foles. The names get less promising from there. Jason Campbell, Matt Flynn, Shaun Hill, Brian Hoyer, Tarvaris Jackson, Luke McCown, Matt Moore, Dan Orlovsky, Jordan Palmer, Tyrod Taylor, Scott Tolzien, Joe Webb and T.J. Yates are on that list.
• Other veterans: Jay Cutler could become available. So could Matt Schaub. I would expect the Washington Redskins to bring back Robert Griffin III for another year because the price will be modest, Griffin still has potential and he might be the best option on the roster. That could change if the Redskins used an first-round pick for a quarterback, but even then, why would the Redskins give away Griffin on the cheap (especially to a division rival in the Eagles), and why would Philly give up much to get him?
• Status quo not so bad: Sanchez completed a season-high 74 percent of his passes for a season-high 374 yards with a 99.9 passer rating and 78.7 Total QBR score against Washington. His QBR score for the season was a career-best 57.4. Foles was at 62.2. Overall, the Eagles rank 14th in QBR at 60.1. All the teams ranked ahead of them have franchise quarterbacks or appear settled at the position for the immediate future (Green Bay, Denver, Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, the Giants, Atlanta, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Seattle and Miami).
• Tweaking approach could help: The idea that Kelly's system can magically transform mediocre quarterbacks into top-flight ones was never realistic, but it was a tough notion to disprove after Foles finished the 2013 season with 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions. This season showed some limitations. Dosage could be key for whichever quarterbacks take the snaps next season. Foles averaged 40.8 dropbacks per game this season, up from 27.9 in 2013. That plus-12.8 differential was easily the largest year-over-year gain among players with at least 200 attempts in each season. Jay Cutler (plus-6.5) and Colin Kaepernick (plus-5.2) were next, and both also seemed to suffer. Most of the players with the largest year-over-year reductions seemed to benefit.
2. Throwing less has made Tony Romo play better.
There are many ways to slice and dice Romo's production as he has surged into the league leads for passer rating (114.4) and Total QBR (82.3) following the Dallas Cowboys' 42-7 victory over Indianapolis, but it's all within the context of dosage. The team's commitment to running the ball and reducing its reliance on Romo has reduced his exposure to negative plays, and to chances for injury.
The more times a quarterback drops back to pass, the tougher it becomes for him to play well consistently. This is intuitively true, and it is also what quarterbacks say is true for a few reasons, including the idea that play-action and other quarterback-friendly tactics become less useful as the dropbacks accumulate. The second chart in this column from November shows which quarterbacks frequently have had high-dropback games and just how few of them have performed well consistently in those games. Once Romo reached 35 dropbacks in a game, he was just as likely to have an especially poor performance as he was to have a good one.
While Foles' play suffered this season in part because he averaged an additional 12.8 dropbacks per game compared to 2013, the reverse has been true for Romo. He has dropped back to pass 7.2 fewer times per game on average, the second-largest year-over-year reduction in that category among players with at least 200 pass attempts in each season. Romo has had three games this season with 35-plus dropbacks, down from eight in 2013, 13 in 2012 and nine in 2011.
Not mentioned in the article but another option IMO would be for Chip to look at Manziel. Manziel would seem to be a good fit in their system potentially. I would certainly trade Manziel for Foles even if Foles is coming off a poor year.
Missing the playoffs has put the Philadelphia Eagles in the wrong kind of exclusive company. This Eagles team will go down in NFL history with the 2008 Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the only ones since divisional realignment in 2002 to turn a 9-3 record into an early offseason. Forty-three other 9-3 teams went on to qualify for postseason play, including four this season.
The way things unraveled for Philadelphia, the Eagles' quarterback situation is going to be front and center this offseason. The pivotal interception Mark Sanchez threw during a 27-24 defeat at previously 3-11 Washington in Week 16 was his 10th since replacing the injured Nick Foles at midseason. Sanchez can become a free agent. Foles is an option, but not necessarily the answer.
What's next at quarterback for coach Chip Kelly and the Eagles? Here we run through some of the options while explaining why the odds are strongly against Philadelphia upgrading from the status quo. It's the first of 10 takeaways from a Week 16 that brought clarity to the playoff picture while raising longer-term questions in Philly and elsewhere.
1. Upgrading at quarterback will be difficult for the Eagles
• Draft options: The Eagles are one of six teams to lose their past three games, but with nine victories, they stand 18th in the projected draft order entering Week 17. Closing with a road defeat against the New York Giants would not push them high enough in the order to realistically contend for Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, who would be an obvious fit for Kelly's offense. Trading up is a long shot for a couple reasons. One, QB-needy teams drafting ahead of the Eagles could resist trading down. Two, it's no sure thing the Eagles would want to trade up when they know first-round picks succeed about 60 percent of the time, which means having additional picks is usually better than having a single higher pick.
• Free-agent options: The list of projected free agents will shrink as teams re-sign veteran backups. Sanchez, Matt Hasselbeck and Michael Vick are the most accomplished veterans without contracts for next season. Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett and Colt McCoy are the relatively young recent draft choices with varying degrees of upside. None of those players looks like an automatic upgrade from Foles. The names get less promising from there. Jason Campbell, Matt Flynn, Shaun Hill, Brian Hoyer, Tarvaris Jackson, Luke McCown, Matt Moore, Dan Orlovsky, Jordan Palmer, Tyrod Taylor, Scott Tolzien, Joe Webb and T.J. Yates are on that list.
• Other veterans: Jay Cutler could become available. So could Matt Schaub. I would expect the Washington Redskins to bring back Robert Griffin III for another year because the price will be modest, Griffin still has potential and he might be the best option on the roster. That could change if the Redskins used an first-round pick for a quarterback, but even then, why would the Redskins give away Griffin on the cheap (especially to a division rival in the Eagles), and why would Philly give up much to get him?
• Status quo not so bad: Sanchez completed a season-high 74 percent of his passes for a season-high 374 yards with a 99.9 passer rating and 78.7 Total QBR score against Washington. His QBR score for the season was a career-best 57.4. Foles was at 62.2. Overall, the Eagles rank 14th in QBR at 60.1. All the teams ranked ahead of them have franchise quarterbacks or appear settled at the position for the immediate future (Green Bay, Denver, Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, the Giants, Atlanta, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Seattle and Miami).
• Tweaking approach could help: The idea that Kelly's system can magically transform mediocre quarterbacks into top-flight ones was never realistic, but it was a tough notion to disprove after Foles finished the 2013 season with 27 touchdown passes and two interceptions. This season showed some limitations. Dosage could be key for whichever quarterbacks take the snaps next season. Foles averaged 40.8 dropbacks per game this season, up from 27.9 in 2013. That plus-12.8 differential was easily the largest year-over-year gain among players with at least 200 attempts in each season. Jay Cutler (plus-6.5) and Colin Kaepernick (plus-5.2) were next, and both also seemed to suffer. Most of the players with the largest year-over-year reductions seemed to benefit.
2. Throwing less has made Tony Romo play better.
There are many ways to slice and dice Romo's production as he has surged into the league leads for passer rating (114.4) and Total QBR (82.3) following the Dallas Cowboys' 42-7 victory over Indianapolis, but it's all within the context of dosage. The team's commitment to running the ball and reducing its reliance on Romo has reduced his exposure to negative plays, and to chances for injury.
The more times a quarterback drops back to pass, the tougher it becomes for him to play well consistently. This is intuitively true, and it is also what quarterbacks say is true for a few reasons, including the idea that play-action and other quarterback-friendly tactics become less useful as the dropbacks accumulate. The second chart in this column from November shows which quarterbacks frequently have had high-dropback games and just how few of them have performed well consistently in those games. Once Romo reached 35 dropbacks in a game, he was just as likely to have an especially poor performance as he was to have a good one.
While Foles' play suffered this season in part because he averaged an additional 12.8 dropbacks per game compared to 2013, the reverse has been true for Romo. He has dropped back to pass 7.2 fewer times per game on average, the second-largest year-over-year reduction in that category among players with at least 200 pass attempts in each season. Romo has had three games this season with 35-plus dropbacks, down from eight in 2013, 13 in 2012 and nine in 2011.
Not mentioned in the article but another option IMO would be for Chip to look at Manziel. Manziel would seem to be a good fit in their system potentially. I would certainly trade Manziel for Foles even if Foles is coming off a poor year.
AZ_
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The study was certainly confirmed.
And I agree with Farmer's quote here, that study would be one piece of the puzzle in trying to determine the best fit at QB.
With that said, there isn't much mincing of words necessary.
The Browns should continue doing these studies, it shows they're doing everything they can.
Claiming this makes the organization look bad is crazy, IMO.
I don't think anyone has done that, either.
CosmoKramer
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Shakalu M.D.
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Well if legit, the study looks right so far. I still think Bortles has shown flashes and could end up being the best down the road, but for now it's Teddy.
If their study said Teddy would be the best, I still can't believe they went with fucking Manziel.
If their study said Teddy would be the best, I still can't believe they went with fucking Manziel.
The Voice
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If haslam did in fact pull the trigger, I'm not sure I can blame farmer for that pick. He's the guy signing the checks and I'm pretty sure we all would have taken him if we were in his shoes.
However, the gilbert pick looks awful and inexcusable. You take a guy 8th overall and he hasn't even sniffed the starting lineup.
On a bright side the rest of the draft looks decent to great and the free agent signings were great.
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EdMonix11
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Carr has been and will continue to be better than Teddy IMO.
Shakalu M.D.
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Meh, he's been impressive too. It's close enough that I don't think it's really worth arguing. It's tough to truly gauge at this point because A) still rookies and B) both have dog shit around them.
I think Bortles, Bridgewater, and Carr will have successful careers while the Browns get laughed at again for drafting hype.
Frank Stallone
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A lot of Eagles fan friends... they're in as shitty of a spot as the Browns are. A lot of very good pieces. Promising coach. One point a lot of hope this year... won too many games to get a top 10 QB in the draft.
The Voice
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We sure shit the bed on that one...
Or at least it looks like it. It's hard to judge a draft after one season though.
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I don't get too bent out of shape about the study. Like all evaluating tools, I'm sure it was part of the equation and not the end all be all to the pick.
Looking back if it was me, I was taking Bridgewater. If I had to do the pick today, I'm taking Carr. I think Carr is the better player with the higher upside. I think Bridgewater will be a competent QB that will take his team to the playoffs multiple times but never really be in the conversation about elite QBs. Carr may not be an elite QB either but I think he has the tools to get into the conversation one day.
Bortles scared me a little bit and I was happy they didn't have an opportunity to take him at 4. He can be real good or just as easily be a journeyman QB. Not sure which it'll be.
As far as Manziel, as you would imagine, I wouldn't have taken him any earlier than the 5th round back then. Now, I wouldn't touch him and I would pray that the other teams in the division wasted their time with him.
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