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http://www.ohio.com/sports/63452327.html
Next year might not be so bad for Tribe
By Sheldon Ocker
Beacon Journal staff writer
POSTED: 05:36 p.m. EDT, Oct 03, 2009
BOSTON: Nobody wants to confront grim reality, but sometimes it's unavoidable. So how bad will the Indians be next year?
Forty wins? How about 55? Do I hear 60? The perception is that 2010 will be the ideal season for all but the most hard-core fans to turn an apathetic ear to the Tribe.
Many fans — some of my personal acquaintance — say they would rather spend the summer mowing their lawns in the middle of a swarm of bees rather than pay attention to Northeast Ohio's favorite baseball team.
''Let me know when they have some guys worth watching,'' is the impression I get, and those are the fans who have put aside their anger over the trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.
Worth watching is the operative phrase, of course. In this age of instant gratification, a lengthy baseball season often merits the interest of the masses only if the payoff at the end is a championship or at least a serious run.
That's not my view, but I watch baseball for a living, so I don't count. And maybe I overvalue the enjoyment of following a work in progress. Now there's another buzz word: progress. Will the Indians next year be a club that progresses from bad to something more proficient?
I think so. In fact, this team might surprise the sporting public. Many of the pieces already are in place to make next season ''interesting.'' That is not to say the Tribe will challenge for a Central Division title.
But another 90-plus loss season shouldn't happen. It could, of course, if young players are slow to develop, and if injuries strike down key members of the roster. I know this will sound crazy, but the Tribe might win more than half its games. Eighty-two wins is not out of the question.
I understand finishing with two more wins than losses is not a reason to hold a ticker-tape parade down Euclid Avenue. Nobody is likely to ask Mark Shapiro to run for mayor if his team ekes out a plus-.500 season. But remember, I was talking about progress.
Increasing their win total by 15-20 would be an indisputable sign that the Indians are on the right track. But is it reasonable to predict the team can make that steep climb into the realm of the average? Here's how, and keep in mind I'm not making any guarantees.
Travis Hafner should be totally recovered from last year's shoulder surgery that turned his season into one long spring training camp. If Hafner can't return to being a 30-home run, 100-RBI slugger next year, he probably never will. However, I don't know any reason why he can't do that.
His presence in the middle of the lineup is crucial to the offense, as is Grady Sizemore scoring 100 runs, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 25 bases as the leadoff hitter (and that's where he should bat). Keep in mind his numbers plummeted this year, because he played every game with two injuries that have been surgically repaired.
We can assume by now that Asdrubal Cabrera is a legitimate big-time player. That is, he is a solid shortstop who can make the special play, and he has the kind of makeup that turns him into a lethal hitter when it counts most.
Shin-Soo Choo is dedicated to being the best player he can be. Better yet, he has the tools to accomplish his goals. He can throw, run and hit. Of all the players on the roster, his production might be the most predictable and consistent.
These four players form the heart of the lineup; they must perform, and they probably will. Abetting them will be the dilemma. Will Matt LaPorta keep developing as a run producer in his first full season in the big leagues? Will Michael Brantley fulfull his promise as a guy capable of delivering a .400 on-base percentage or something close to it?
Both of these rookies look like the real deal, but the maturation process might take two or three years. While they continue to learn, they need to make positive contributions, starting in 2010.
Luis Valbuena made incremental improvements in his game all season. That gently-sloped curve should persist next year.
That leaves Jhonny Peralta and the catcher, probably Lou Marson. What do we know about Marson? Not much, except that he might be the guy who holds down the catching position until Carlos Santana is ready to make his big-league debut, sometime in 2010 or early in 2011.
We know a lot about Peralta. He will play third at the same level of expertise that he played shortstop, and he will produce these approximate numbers: 20 homers, 70 RBI, .270 average. The problem is the same as it's always been: How did he get there?
This is hardly an offense that can rival the 1995 Indians, but it can produce enough runs if the pitching is solid. So what about the rotation?
Nobody who will compete for a job as a starter has the ability to be an ace, except Fausto Carmona. How's that for a comforting thought? Carmona has the talent to win 20 games, but he has to be in control of his emotions. His adrenaline can't erupt every time a teammate makes an error or he walks two batters in a row.
There is nothing wrong with Carmona that a couple of beers wouldn't cure (adminstered intravenously, of course, about the time the national anthem is sung), but that's not the way it's done in baseball. Some day Carmona will be a No. 1 starter, No. 2 at worst. Will he still be with the Indians by then? It might take three years, but it might be in 2010.
Aaron Laffey has proven he can be a winner, and Jeremy Sowers rebounded from two awful seasons. Justin Masterson has a great arm; his pitches move at angles that seem to defy physics. But can he be an effective starter? I'm not sure.
Jake Westbrook will be coming off Tommy John elbow surgery. He'll be fine — once he remembers how to pitch again. That might take three months; maybe not. Rookie David Huff had an up-and-down season and still won 11 games. Thankfully, he did not have a bravura season, one that might induce him to think pitching in the majors isn't as hard as he thought.
Carlos Carrasco might not be ready to step into a major-league rotation, but if he returns to Triple-A, he will give the Indians starting depth. They'll probably need it. And since there will be at least seven contenders for the rotation, he won't be the only one in danger of opening the season in the minors.
This year's relievers contributed most to the team's early demise. That could happen again, but the bullpen has the arms to be successful: closer Kerry Wood, Chris Perez, Tony Sipp, Joe Smith. I predict that Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez will be models of consistency in 2010.
A plus-.500 season is a conceivable outcome. But it's only a first step. It's easier to go from 65 wins to 82 than it is to go from 82 wins to 95. But that's a problem for another year.
