Next Year Might Not Be So Bad For Tribe

[7foot3]

Nope. I'd prefer Cabrera batting second or even third. Second is best for him. I'm not sure why people are hesitating about Brantley. What did he need to do the last 5 weeks of the season? He only batted .310 or something like that. I guess .350 would have been better?

With a probably unsustainable .376 BABIP. He also had a walk rate of 6.6% and just 4 XBH in 121 PAs. Both those are pretty poor marks. What happens when balls in play fall for hits at the same rate they did for him in the minors (.328)? If that happens, without an improvement in walk rate or power, he doesn't belong in the lineup anywhere, much less in LF. He's a pretty good prospect, and can probably help next year, but using BA on a 121 PA sample size isn't bright.




And on the FA pitchers? The Indians had to give up players because they were certain they were going to lose money next year. They aren't spending more. And besides, what does spending money on crappy older pitching do for you? If you weren't a .500 team without those guys, you have no business spending money, just to be hoping for 83 wins.

 

[Gunther]

With a probably unsustainable .376 BABIP. He also had a walk rate of 6.6% and just 4 XBH in 121 PAs. Both those are pretty poor marks. What happens when balls in play fall for hits at the same rate they did for him in the minors (.328)? If that happens, without an improvement in walk rate or power, he doesn't belong in the lineup anywhere, much less in LF. He's a pretty good prospect, and can probably help next year, but using BA on a 121 PA sample size isn't bright.




And on the FA pitchers? The Indians had to give up players because they were certain they were going to lose money next year. They aren't spending more. And besides, what does spending money on crappy older pitching do for you? If you weren't a .500 team without those guys, you have no business spending money, just to be hoping for 83 wins.

I disagree with your assesment of Brantley. I'm not one for sabermetrics and fantasy league stats, but I know what I saw: Brantley looked like a legitimate leadoff hitter to me. One thing the stats don't mention is that he was fighting an ankle injury all year - even before he was called up. He missed three games due to an unrelated ankle injury on the same ankle.

He showed toughness and poise. He raised his game when he was called up. I want a guy who can perform under pressure on my team.

Only 4 XBH in 121 PA's? So what? He got a lot of singles. He set the table from the front end of the lineup very well. He did his job as a leadoff hitter. He also stole 4 bases on 8 attempts. Not bad for a newbie, and definately something I would expect to see improvement on when he is 100% healthy.

As a young player, he has a lot of adjustments to make next year. The league will adjust to him and will pitch him differently. But this is the same obstacle that every other young player has to go through. And the Indians will have a lot of young players in the same boat. That's why their selection of a new coaching staff is so critical. I say let him play and let's see what he can do. Leadoff and play left field.

The pitching is another story.

 

[7foot3]

I disagree with your assesment of Brantley. I'm not one for sabermetrics and fantasy league stats, but I know what I saw: Brantley looked like a legitimate leadoff hitter to me. One thing the stats don't mention is that he was fighting an ankle injury all year - even before he was called up. He missed three games due to an unrelated ankle injury on the same ankle.

He showed toughness and poise. He raised his game when he was called up. I want a guy who can perform under pressure on my team.

Only 4 XBH in 121 PA's? So what? He got a lot of singles. He set the table from the front end of the lineup very well. He did his job as a leadoff hitter. He also stole 4 bases on 8 attempts. Not bad for a newbie, and definately something I would expect to see improvement on when he is 100% healthy.

As a young player, he has a lot of adjustments to make next year. The league will adjust to him and will pitch him differently. But this is the same obstacle that every other young player has to go through. And the Indians will have a lot of young players in the same boat. That's why their selection of a new coaching staff is so critical. I say let him play and let's see what he can do. Leadoff and play left field.

The pitching is another story.

These aren't fantasy league stats, and dismissing digging a little deeper into the numbers seems pretty ludicrous to me. He did look good, and you'll notice I didn't use solely his numbers from AAA this year, the ones most likely to be affected by the ankle injury.

He had a bunch of singles fall in at a higher rate than he did for his career in the minors. Can he keep that up? Possibly, but probably not. He also saw big swings (in the wrong direction) for his K% and BB% compared to his minor league career. This is something we should be expecting from such a young player in his first stint, but it's probably more important to pay attention to than how often some extra singles fell in.

XBH are important from any spot in the lineup. We can't dismiss them for leadoff hitters. Especially when said-leadoff hitter is playing a position where you can find players who can rack up XBH fairly easily.

I have to repeat my last line about Brantley - He's a pretty good prospect, and can probably help next year, but using BA on a 121 PA sample size isn't bright - He could just as easily hit .280 next year, and unless that walk rate and power improves, that's not going to cut it.

 

[DougHeil]

These aren't fantasy league stats, and dismissing digging a little deeper into the numbers seems pretty ludicrous to me. He did look good, and you'll notice I didn't use solely his numbers from AAA this year, the ones most likely to be affected by the ankle injury.

He had a bunch of singles fall in at a higher rate than he did for his career in the minors. Can he keep that up? Possibly, but probably not. He also saw big swings (in the wrong direction) for his K% and BB% compared to his minor league career. This is something we should be expecting from such a young player in his first stint, but it's probably more important to pay attention to than how often some extra singles fell in.

XBH are important from any spot in the lineup. We can't dismiss them for leadoff hitters. Especially when said-leadoff hitter is playing a position where you can find players who can rack up XBH fairly easily.

I have to repeat my last line about Brantley - He's a pretty good prospect, and can probably help next year, but using BA on a 121 PA sample size isn't bright - He could just as easily hit .280 next year, and unless that walk rate and power improves, that's not going to cut it.

.280 won't cut it? Okay. I'll take it and so will any new manager we hire.

The walks will come. If that's your basis for saying Brantley should start the year in the minors, that's a bad basis for sure. Walking means you are patient. Most rookies are NOT patient and is something they get better at over time. In Brantley's case, he showed remarkable patience for his very first stint in MLB. He will only get better. He also showed a remarkable nack for getting a hit after he had two strikes, and after a good at bat with more than average number of pitches thrown at one at bat. I see almost no downside so far with him at all. His defense will improve as with any rookie as well. I can remember a ball in the last week hit over his head and he ran back to get it as smooth as any OF I have seen. It looked like he almost wasn't trying, with any average OF'er not getting to the ball at all.

Here's my revised lineup, including the actual batting order:

Brantley = LF
Cabrera = SS
Sizemore = CF
Choo = RF
Hafner = DH
LaPorta = 1B
Peralta = 3B
Santana = C
Valbuena = 2B

yes Santana as well. He will shine in spring training to force the Indians to play him. Marson will be the backup. Toregas is "not a starting C or backup when we have this kind of depth at catcher anyway.

I like the idea of Valbuena hitting nine because he has speed. Being in front of Brantley, Cabrera and Sizemore would be a damn good thing.

Bench Position Players:

Marson = C
Donald = Utility
Marte = 3B and 1B
Crowe = CF, LF, RF

We'll keep 12 pitchers. 13 is nutty. That's a total of 25 roster spots.

 

[7foot3]

.280 won't cut it? Okay. I'll take it and so will any new manager we hire.

The walks will come. If that's your basis for saying Brantley should start the year in the minors, that's a bad basis for sure. Walking means you are patient. Most rookies are NOT patient and is something they get better at over time. In Brantley's case, he showed remarkable patience for his very first stint in MLB. He will only get better. He also showed a remarkable nack for getting a hit after he had two strikes, and after a good at bat with more than average number of pitches thrown at one at bat. I see almost no downside so far with him at all. His defense will improve as with any rookie as well. I can remember a ball in the last week hit over his head and he ran back to get it as smooth as any OF I have seen. It looked like he almost wasn't trying, with any average OF'er not getting to the ball at all.

Here's my revised lineup, including the actual batting order:

Brantley = LF
Cabrera = SS
Sizemore = CF
Choo = RF
Hafner = DH
LaPorta = 1B
Peralta = 3B
Santana = C
Valbuena = 2B

yes Santana as well. He will shine in spring training to force the Indians to play him. Marson will be the backup. Toregas is "not a starting C or backup when we have this kind of depth at catcher anyway.

I like the idea of Valbuena hitting nine because he has speed. Being in front of Brantley, Cabrera and Sizemore would be a damn good thing.

Bench Position Players:

Marson = C
Donald = Utility
Marte = 3B and 1B
Crowe = CF, LF, RF

We'll keep 12 pitchers. 13 is nutty. That's a total of 25 roster spots.

Batting average by itself doesn't tell us much. .280 with a 6.6% walk rate and an XBH every 30 PA won't cut it. That's about a .280/.328/.316 line. Terrible anywhere, much less in LF.

I know that Brantley has shown great plate discipline in the minors, and he'd be a great defender in LF. But those qualities have to become great, for a major leaguer, for him to be a legit starting LF. Sure, they're not expecting to contend anyway, so why not throw him in LF and let him learn. But Brantley projects to be a well below average hitter next year, especially in LF (position context is huge), and may very well be your worst hitter next year if he doesn't keep up a BABIP higher than every regular but Ichiro in the AL.

 

[Gunther]

These aren't fantasy league stats, and dismissing digging a little deeper into the numbers seems pretty ludicrous to me. He did look good, and you'll notice I didn't use solely his numbers from AAA this year, the ones most likely to be affected by the ankle injury.

He had a bunch of singles fall in at a higher rate than he did for his career in the minors. Can he keep that up? Possibly, but probably not. He also saw big swings (in the wrong direction) for his K% and BB% compared to his minor league career. This is something we should be expecting from such a young player in his first stint, but it's probably more important to pay attention to than how often some extra singles fell in.

XBH are important from any spot in the lineup. We can't dismiss them for leadoff hitters. Especially when said-leadoff hitter is playing a position where you can find players who can rack up XBH fairly easily.

I have to repeat my last line about Brantley - He's a pretty good prospect, and can probably help next year, but using BA on a 121 PA sample size isn't bright - He could just as easily hit .280 next year, and unless that walk rate and power improves, that's not going to cut it.

Well, we'll see. One of the reasons the team was attracted to Brantley was because they considered him a potential leadoff hitter of the future. Given his performance at the end of 2009, I say all he has to do is make a solid effort in Spring Training next year and he'll be our leadoff hitter. Brantley will be turning 23 in May, BTW. Lots of room for growth (or failure if you choose to look at it that way).

 

[Snowblind]

.280 won't cut it? Okay. I'll take it and so will any new manager we hire.

The walks will come. If that's your basis for saying Brantley should start the year in the minors, that's a bad basis for sure. Walking means you are patient. Most rookies are NOT patient and is something they get better at over time. In Brantley's case, he showed remarkable patience for his very first stint in MLB. He will only get better. He also showed a remarkable nack for getting a hit after he had two strikes, and after a good at bat with more than average number of pitches thrown at one at bat. I see almost no downside so far with him at all. His defense will improve as with any rookie as well. I can remember a ball in the last week hit over his head and he ran back to get it as smooth as any OF I have seen. It looked like he almost wasn't trying, with any average OF'er not getting to the ball at all.

Here's my revised lineup, including the actual batting order:

Brantley = LF
Cabrera = SS
Sizemore = CF
Choo = RF
Hafner = DH
LaPorta = 1B
Peralta = 3B
Santana = C
Valbuena = 2B

yes Santana as well. He will shine in spring training to force the Indians to play him. Marson will be the backup. Toregas is "not a starting C or backup when we have this kind of depth at catcher anyway.

I like the idea of Valbuena hitting nine because he has speed. Being in front of Brantley, Cabrera and Sizemore would be a damn good thing.

Bench Position Players:

Marson = C
Donald = Utility
Marte = 3B and 1B
Crowe = CF, LF, RF

We'll keep 12 pitchers. 13 is nutty. That's a total of 25 roster spots.

We arnt Minnesota. We shouldnt put 3 left handers right after one another. Either move, Peralta or Laporta into that 4 spot. And have Choo bat 6. Besides that, I wouldnt mind that line-up. The only thing with this team (looking into the future that is) is the pitching and the bullpen. I think Westbrook/Carmona?/Masterson?/Laffy/Huff will in be the rotation and its not that good of one either. Westbrook had that surgery and who knows how he will preform. Laffy and Huff looked pretty good this year, and the other 2 (Fausto, and Justin) are huge question marks. The only people in our bullpen I like are Chris Perez, Joe Smith, Kerry Wood (maybe), Tony Sipp (meh not really). You dont know what you're going to get with Raffy Perez either, and hopefully Tomo Ohka is gone, and we put Sowers in Ohkas spot (or trade him).

 

[7foot3]

Well, we'll see. One of the reasons the team was attracted to Brantley was because they considered him a potential leadoff hitter of the future. Given his performance at the end of 2009, I say all he has to do is make a solid effort in Spring Training next year and he'll be our leadoff hitter. Brantley will be turning 23 in May, BTW. Lots of room for growth (or failure if you choose to look at it that way).

They were attracted to a player with a wide variety of skills, who demonstrated them while being one of the youngest players at his level. The Indians have rarely tried to pigeonhole a player, especially in something as trivial as 'leadoff hitter'. And we also know the Indians take a lot more into account than Spring Training. If I had to take a guess now, they'll continue to bat their excellent leadoff hitter, Sizemore, first, just like they did when he and Brantley were both in the lineup.

 

[macbdog]

Yeah, you can't have 3 lefties in a row. That opens a team up to getting killled by loogies. Grady either bats 1st or he bats 5th. THe more I think about it, with Brantley still growing into his game, having him start next year lower in the lineup makes some sense. Hitting leadoff in September, when teams are cycling in their AAA callups, isn't quite the same as starting the year in that kind of role. That, and Brantley was far from perfect- he was making good contact but he wasn't walking enough. That, and he was getting caught stealing too much. He has work to do and maybe doing it lower in the lineup will be more beneficial.

 

[BooyaCS]

My lineups

vs Lefties
Brantly
ACab
Choo
Laporta
Grady
Peralta
Hafner
Santana
Valbeuna

vs Righties
Brantely
ACab
Choo
Hafner
Laporta
Grady
Peralta
Santana
Valbuena

 

[AZ_]

I don't think you can justify cutting at-bats for Sizemore in favor of Brantley, Hafner or Choo.