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Whoever promises the most free stuff will win.
I suspect that's true at this point, which was the underlying point behind Romney's 47% comment even though the comment itself was overly broad.
The demographics of the current core Democratic coalition -- minorities, single women, and young people -- are all in their favor. I question whether someone like Hilary will get the same minority/young people turnout as did Obama, but I still believe the demographics are sufficiently in their favor to make it extremely difficult for a GOP candidate to win in 2016.
The GOP must force some cracks in that coalition if they're going to have any chance of winning. I don't think there's really a possibility of that happening with minorities, or with single women who look to government to be their daddy/husband/provider.
The only group that might be getable is young people, and there is a bit of a similarity between the situation pre-1980, and now. Young people were overwhelmingly Democratic in the aftermath of Vietnam, but Reagan communicated an insurgent message that appealed to young people disillusioned by the stagflation of the late 70's, and by seeing American flags burned every night on TV. A GOP candidate must be able to push a similar conversion to win.