All4One1ForAll
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We all remember that ill-fated season. Our Cleveland Cavaliers had just won 66 games, good enough for 1st in the Eastern Conference and best in the league. It looked like Cleveland might finally be able to get the taste of a championship again, and we also might get to see that ever-so-appealing Kobe vs. LeBron Finals. However, as we all know, the Cavs unfortunately fell to the Orlando Magic in the ECF, a combination of Mike Brown getting outcoached and our role players failing to match up with those on the Magic, including Turkoglu, Lewis, and Pietrus. But I don't think the end result should force us to overlook just how spectacular LeBron was that season. In fact, I would argue that 2008-09 LeBron was the greatest peak of any player in NBA history - ahead of 1991 Jordan, 2000 Shaq, 1977 Kareem, etc. And here's my reasoning, along with a comparison of LeBron's 2009 season to Jordan's 1991 season, which I believe to be the second greatest peak of all time, in order to put in perspective how great LeBron was that year.
STATISTICAL COMPARISON:
Michael Jordan (1990-91)
Regular Season:
31.5 PPG / 5.5 APG / 6.0 RPG / 60.5% TS / 31.6 PER / .321 WS/48 / 10.8 BPM / 9.8 VORP / +23 Net Off-Def Rating / 5.0 RAPM (4th in the league)*
Postseason:
31.1 PPG / 8.4 APG / 6.4 RPG / 60.0% TS / 32.0 PER / .333 WS/48 / 13.8 BPM / 2.8 VORP / +26 Net Off-Def Rating
LeBron James (2008-09)
Regular Season:
28.4 PPG / 7.2 APG / 7.6 RPG / 59.1% TS / 31.7 PER / .318 WS/48 / 13.0 BPM / 11.6 VORP / +19 Net Off-Def Rating / 11.3 RAPM (1st in the league)*
Postseason:
35.3 PPG / 7.6 APG / 9.1 RPG / 61.8% TS / 37.4 PER / .399 WS/48 / 18.2 BPM / 2.9 VORP / +28 Net Off-Def Rating
*I provided both MJ's and LeBron's respective places in the league regarding their rankings in RAPM because technically they weren't calculated using the same formulas, seeing that RAPM wasn't a calculable stat at the time, so their ranking should at least help give some perspective as you can't really compare the pure numbers to one another.
TEAM SUCCESS:
LeBron James led the Cavs to a 66 win season (+8.68 SRS) in 2009 while Michael Jordan led his Bulls to 61 wins (+8.51 SRS) in 1991. It is true that the Cavs ended up losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Magic while Jordan's Bulls went on to win the title that year, which might lead to some people immediately dismissing LeBron's case in this comparison. However, let me point out that I could have simply used LeBron's 2013 season, in which he went on to win the title, if it was absolutely necessary for one to win the championship in order to claim the GOAT peak honor for a single season. I chose LeBron's 2009 season for a reason and that's because I think he was simply the most dominant, impactful player he had ever been in his career, despite the fact that he didn't win the title. In my opinion it's silly to ignore context (in this case, the fact that the second option on LeBron's team was Mo Williams and his coach was Mike Brown compared to Jordan whose Robin was a top 50 player of all time and whose coach was arguably the greatest NBA coach ever). If you just look at LeBron's postseason numbers (especially in the Orlando series), as well as his advanced stats, you can see that he did all he could to carry his team past Orlando, averaging 39/8/8 in the series while shooting on an efficient 59% TS. He shouldn't be faulted just because his teammates weren't good enough. We're evaluating him based on his individual play here, so it doesn't make sense to pretend like there aren't 4 other players out their on the floor with their own responsibilities.
Skillset Comparison:
At their peaks, Jordan was a better and slightly more efficient scorer while LeBron was a superior facilitator and rebounder. Despite Jordan's advantages in the steals department (they're about even in blocks), according to their advanced defensive stats, LeBron was more impactful on that end. Below, I included an analysis of LeBron's defensive impact in 2009, which I stole from this RealGM thread (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1241582) and edited slightly. It's pretty in depth and goes to show how dominant he was on that side of the floor, despite having to shoulder such a heavy load on the offensive side of the ball, considering how offensively challenged a good portion of that Cavs team was.
All in all, I personally would take peak LeBron over peak Jordan, and I believe during the 2008-09 season he was truly the overall best, most dominant version of any player the game had ever seen. From a career standpoint, LeBron is still multiple titles and a myriad of accolades and achievements away from catching Jordan - though we must remember he's still only 30 years old, and it would be silly to pretend that LeBron can't still eventually claim the title of the Greatest of All Time (which encompasses one's entire career) - but if we're simply analyzing absolute peaks, I don't think there was ever one greater than LeBron James in 2009.
STATISTICAL COMPARISON:
Michael Jordan (1990-91)
Regular Season:
31.5 PPG / 5.5 APG / 6.0 RPG / 60.5% TS / 31.6 PER / .321 WS/48 / 10.8 BPM / 9.8 VORP / +23 Net Off-Def Rating / 5.0 RAPM (4th in the league)*
Postseason:
31.1 PPG / 8.4 APG / 6.4 RPG / 60.0% TS / 32.0 PER / .333 WS/48 / 13.8 BPM / 2.8 VORP / +26 Net Off-Def Rating
LeBron James (2008-09)
Regular Season:
28.4 PPG / 7.2 APG / 7.6 RPG / 59.1% TS / 31.7 PER / .318 WS/48 / 13.0 BPM / 11.6 VORP / +19 Net Off-Def Rating / 11.3 RAPM (1st in the league)*
Postseason:
35.3 PPG / 7.6 APG / 9.1 RPG / 61.8% TS / 37.4 PER / .399 WS/48 / 18.2 BPM / 2.9 VORP / +28 Net Off-Def Rating
*I provided both MJ's and LeBron's respective places in the league regarding their rankings in RAPM because technically they weren't calculated using the same formulas, seeing that RAPM wasn't a calculable stat at the time, so their ranking should at least help give some perspective as you can't really compare the pure numbers to one another.
TEAM SUCCESS:
LeBron James led the Cavs to a 66 win season (+8.68 SRS) in 2009 while Michael Jordan led his Bulls to 61 wins (+8.51 SRS) in 1991. It is true that the Cavs ended up losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Magic while Jordan's Bulls went on to win the title that year, which might lead to some people immediately dismissing LeBron's case in this comparison. However, let me point out that I could have simply used LeBron's 2013 season, in which he went on to win the title, if it was absolutely necessary for one to win the championship in order to claim the GOAT peak honor for a single season. I chose LeBron's 2009 season for a reason and that's because I think he was simply the most dominant, impactful player he had ever been in his career, despite the fact that he didn't win the title. In my opinion it's silly to ignore context (in this case, the fact that the second option on LeBron's team was Mo Williams and his coach was Mike Brown compared to Jordan whose Robin was a top 50 player of all time and whose coach was arguably the greatest NBA coach ever). If you just look at LeBron's postseason numbers (especially in the Orlando series), as well as his advanced stats, you can see that he did all he could to carry his team past Orlando, averaging 39/8/8 in the series while shooting on an efficient 59% TS. He shouldn't be faulted just because his teammates weren't good enough. We're evaluating him based on his individual play here, so it doesn't make sense to pretend like there aren't 4 other players out their on the floor with their own responsibilities.
Skillset Comparison:
At their peaks, Jordan was a better and slightly more efficient scorer while LeBron was a superior facilitator and rebounder. Despite Jordan's advantages in the steals department (they're about even in blocks), according to their advanced defensive stats, LeBron was more impactful on that end. Below, I included an analysis of LeBron's defensive impact in 2009, which I stole from this RealGM thread (http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1241582) and edited slightly. It's pretty in depth and goes to show how dominant he was on that side of the floor, despite having to shoulder such a heavy load on the offensive side of the ball, considering how offensively challenged a good portion of that Cavs team was.
Analysis of LeBron's Defense (2009):
On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)
The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.
6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)
10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to that of E'Twaun Moore and Austin Rivers this year)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.
Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8
LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.
Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)
Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%
What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:
The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-
That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):
Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS%
Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)
+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]
All in all, I personally would take peak LeBron over peak Jordan, and I believe during the 2008-09 season he was truly the overall best, most dominant version of any player the game had ever seen. From a career standpoint, LeBron is still multiple titles and a myriad of accolades and achievements away from catching Jordan - though we must remember he's still only 30 years old, and it would be silly to pretend that LeBron can't still eventually claim the title of the Greatest of All Time (which encompasses one's entire career) - but if we're simply analyzing absolute peaks, I don't think there was ever one greater than LeBron James in 2009.