To Tank or not to Tank, that is the question

[Baseline Runner]

So much wrong with this post.

And I can't take a contradictory post that fails to elaborate seriously.

 

[Tornicade]

for all we know , zeller, Thompson and Waiters could end up traded. The NBa is Cyclical. a random nba team fire sale may be just around that has pieces the Cavs want.

The overall goal for the team now is to collect a young core that can develop together. if the oppurtunitie became available they could easily scrap that and surround Irving with a different set of players.


In either scenario AV can contribute and theres nothing in stone saying the cavs intend or will be a lottery team for the next two season.

You can look historically and see that great players do not stay in the celler long.This wont be any diferent for a pg superstar in a point guard driven league.

otherwise Irving is just another Stephen Marbury whose exit marked the road to contention for The Nets.

At some point the Cavs will have to start sacrificing some of their flexibility and commit to their core.

the Cavs are also in the position next year to sign a quality free agent or collect assets from teams making room to sign free agents or keep the ones they have.

worst case scenario they come up empty make another lottery draft and stay flexible for another year.

 

[Cavatt]

If Andy was 35 I would understand better, but the people who suggest trading him remind me of people buying lottery tickets with whatever money they win. "I know this is money, but it could be more!"

 

[Baseline Runner]

If Andy was 35 I would understand better, but the people who suggest trading him remind me of people buying lottery tickets with whatever money they win. "I know this is money, but it could be more!"

Nice analogy.

 

[Mdog1]

This is a good point but I would argue that we starting to shift out of the asset collection mode.

I don't think we are out of asset collection mode yet, although I will agree that we will be soon. Most likely at the draft in fact if I had to guess because we have so many pick.

With 4 talented young players in Kyrie, Dion, Zeller and TT, lots of upcoming draft picks including a likely lottery pick next year, plus plenty of cap space, the foundation for the future has already been laid. Now it is about trying to build as good of a team as possible and start competing.

I agree with you on this. After this year it is time to start getting our team some help. If that comes in the way of free agency than so be it, but I would assume it will come through trades.

Being mediocre for a couple of seasons is not such a bad thing while our young talent develops. The Bulls were mediocre when Scottie Pippen was still developing, the Pistons were mediocre when Joe Dumars and Rodman were developing, the same for Houston with Olajuwon (he was not as good of a player in the eighties as he became in the nineties even though the stats were not much different).

I completely disagree with this part. It's never a good thing to be mediocre. You're either winning 50 games, and competing, or you might as well just throw away the season imho.

Most teams go from bad to medicore to good, few jump straight from bad to good like OKC managed to do (really that team is way overused as a model on here, there are a lot of other teams in the past we can learn from).

That's true most teams don't make a 30+ win jump. It would be nice to make a push to 50 win next year though. If we fall at 45 then at least we're not the 8th seed, and just get swept in the first round by the Heat, which would be worst case scenario.

 

[MYoung23]

And I can't take a contradictory post that fails to elaborate seriously.

First off, the Cavaliers dont have 4 talented players. They have one stud in Irving. A guy that's looks like he can be good but not great in Waiters. A rich man's Spencer Hawes or an approximation of early 30s Z and Tristan Thompson, who many people now are just hoping he becomes Tyrone Hill. Basically, there's 2 guys in Irving and Waiters.

The Pistons made the playoffs Dumars rookie year and went to the ECFs in his 2nd, Finals in year 3 and champion in year 4. Everyone would love to be that mediocre. Olajuwon went to the Finals his 2nd year and he was absolute monster from day 1 in the league. It took the Rockets a long time to recover from Ralph Sampson's knees turning to jello. The Bulls won 50 games Scottie Pippen's rookie year and went to the 2nd round. Year 2 the ECFs, Year 3 the ECFs, and year 4 champion.

So bad examples.

 

[GonzoRatso88]

Windy is on the RBS WKNR:

-Says that Andy is playing at all All-Star level. Its rare to see a 30 year old have a career year. He said Andy has been here 9 years and even through the last couple years where the Cavs havent been good, Andy never wanted out and has been very loyal, which speaks to his character.

-He has a hard time guarding centers, so its difficult to asses his value.

-The Cavs dont have to trade him and they are getting offers across the board. It is the most valuable asset they have had in a long time and its hard to replace a guy like him. The Cavs want to be good in the next few years. You have to be careful in trading him. The Cavs will agonize over this.

-He thinks over the summer the Cavs would trade Andy by the deadline so they could add pieces. The way he is playing now, its changed the Cavs mindset now, he is under control for 2 more years for reasonable money. He doesn't see a guy in the draft like him, even if you do get a lottery pick you dont get a guy like him. He thinks its 50/50 he gets dealt.

-The Lakers team has a flawed roster. Guys dont fit well together and they aren't thinking or built for the future. Kobe plays iso, Dwight plays pick and roll, two opposite styles of play.

-The Lakers D has not been good and Dwight had issues with his back because he is not 100%. He is missing free throws at the highest rate of his career. If he is not healthy, he is not the player he once was. His biggest value is that he protects the rim and he isn't doing that now.

-LeBron said he was surprised about being SI Sportsman of the Year, but that is a lie because he did the photo-shoot 2 weeks ago. He had a great year so its not a huge surprise. He has been the best player in the league for the last 3-4 years. He will be the best player for the next 3-5 years.

-He was a little surprised that LeBron stood up for Mike Brown being fired in LA. But everyone can say that Brown didnt have a fair shot, so his reaction was honest. Its hard to justify firing a guy after 5 games, especially a guy like Mike who has a pretty good resume. Mike was appreciative that LeBron said that, and a lot of people agree with LeBron.

-Windy thinks the Thunder may regret trading Harden this season. He picked OKC to win the title but changed it after the trade. If you look at their stats, they aren't missing Harden at all. They are 13-2 in their last 15 and they are passing the ball more (Westbrook averaging 3 more assists per game). Durant is off to the best start in his career, even though his scoring is down. The team is playing better but Harden was great at taking over in the playoffs, which Kevin Martin may not do.

-Stern issuing the edict about the Spurs after hours, is still showing that he is in total control. When he announced his retirement, in a 5 min span he mentioned that he wasn't retiring til 2015. He has even more power because he is on his way out and there is no use in checking him.

-The new Brooklyn arena is smaller and cater to the high end fan. No point in going to games and sitting in the 20th row on the 3rd deck. This is a major concern for major sports. The Brooklyn arena has only 17K seats (smallest) with WiFi access for everyone.

There was one minor part I missed because a phone call came in but feel free to fill in.

 

[demonmt]

If Andy was 35 I would understand better, but the people who suggest trading him remind me of people buying lottery tickets with whatever money they win. "I know this is money, but it could be more!"

The only relation is that it would involve a gamble (this is clear with a trade, but als in regard to Andy's sustained success) and that a trade would return a "lottery" pick(s). A lottery pick has an EXPONENTIALLY higher chance of netting even a superstar than buying a lottery ticket has of winning, but this is stating the obvious, and I doubt you were actually comparing the probabilities. Buying a lottery ticket is a black/white win/lose gamble while a Varejao trade would also likely return already established young talent in addition to the chance to strike it big (or even strike it "little"- better than 0), so there is a guarantee of return of at least some value. There are more Andy trade possibilities than finding a contender w/ assets (a list of which is essentially comprised of OKC).

These are the type of gambles that the Cavs have to make (and hit on) to become a GREAT team.

There has been little talk of 3 or more team deals that pair a contender, a team with assets, and the Cavs. Also, for those saying that the lottery is a crapshoot, if an Andy trade were to go down, we would have a ridiculous pile of assets that we could potentially flip for existing young talent.

My position is based on the future, not the present/short term which is what many seem focused on. Andy can only help this team in the short-midterm. Our core, which will be composed of players drafted within the past two years and at least the next year, will be in their primes for long after Varejao is retired. Everyone can talk all they want about chemistry, Andy's teaching young players, and being good in the short term, but I am more excited about the potential of getting young talent that actually has the ability to grow and mature with our core so that our team instead of experiencing peaks and valleys as players at different points in their careers improve and decline simultaneously. I really believe that we are much further from contention than most think. We do have some young talent in addition to Kyrie, but we don't know to what extent this talent will develop, or what could happen. I think we need a lot more of this young talent before we switch gears. If we do this too early in the process, we risk being stuck on the mid-tier treadmill.

The fact is neither side of this disagreement is going to be persuaded by the other side because so much of BOTH sides' arguments are based on speculation and perceived value. I'll retain my views, but I'll be alright with whatever Grant & Co. decide because I trust their judgement.

Let's remember that we are all here because we care about the Cleveland Cavaliers and want our team to be the best that they can be.

 

[FiveThous]

This draft class sucks though

 

[The Process God]

I just cant ignore how biased this was to one side of the argument. I just cant. Thats my biggest pet peeve in this debate. Ppl act like its black and white. You put that ONE sentence in there, but this whole post was just one sided to trading AV, like nothing bad would happen if we traded him.

I just gotta....at best you said we trade AV draft a all star, and sign some FAs.....

ok.....
Why not talk about worst case because i honestly feel ppl are trying to straight IGNORE the bad.

WORST CASE, we trade AV, we lose any chance to get wins for these young guys, Kyrie now is playing wth NO big men who understand offense at all, and now him and Dion look like total trash because of our non existent post game. We have worst record and STILL only get the 3rd pick about. We draft a guy who takes 5 years for us to realize that hes just a role player, and AV is sitting here 5 years from now still getting 10 and 10, but on a like 2 mil a year contract. We either sped up our rebuild, or delayed it by about 5 years and now all our players we drafted around now are tired of losing a leave...boom, now were at square 1 and have to find another Kyrie or Lebron.

How is bias involved in what I said? "A cognitive bias is the human tendency to make systematic decisions in certain circumstances based on cognitive factors rather than evidence." I have no emotion in my argument whatsoever, and I use only evidence. My evidence is based off of past experiences of both Varejao and draft picks. It's completely based off of probability. Granted, it's a subjective probability since it's hard to objectively quantify the likelihood of Varejao outproducing whatever we trade him for years down the road, but it's still using probability. I merely quantify the probability of trading Varejao for the right package as having a higher chance of being better for us in the long run than keeping Varjeao. Proposing a single side of an argument isn't a true bias. An argument that uses factors other than evidence is a biased argument.

Besides, I was responding to your original argument, which was completely off-base in measuring how beneficial trading Varejao could be to the team. You said it would a lateral move at best, which I proved wrong, showing how we could be vastly better in the long run, and I really didn't even go far enough there since you went as far as you could go in terms of explaining all that could go wrong. So let me have a stab at it.

Let's say we trade Varejao for PJIII, the Toronto pick, and Perkins. Because of the trade, our record tanks to a worse record than if we had not traded Varejao (probably the worst record in the league), allowing us to draft a future all-star that would've otherwise been out of reach due to having too low of a draft pick because we won too many games from Varejao. Secondly, with the Toronto pick, it'll most likely be a very high pick, which could allow us to draft another all-star. Then we're set up with 4 all-star level players (Kyrie, Dion, 2013 Cavs 1st, 2013 Tor 1st), 1 solid player (Tyler Zeller), and 3 solid bench players (Gee,Thompson, and PJIII). They'd all be within 4 years of one another in age as well. Now with this group, we go forth and win many championships together since they will be able to compete at a high level for about a decade due to their youth from when they started.

Oppositely, if we keep Varejao, he could get injured of fall off a cliff for one reason or another production-wise, and then we're stuck with him because he's lost his value, is always injured or has slowed down drastically due to injury. But let's say this happens only after he ruins our chances of getting a top five pick or top 3 pick this year or any other year hence forth, which stops us from getting the young talent that we need on this team. So we hop on the treadmill of mediocrity, just barely replacing the talent that leaves this team through retirement and free agency with average players from the draft because we never have high enough picks to get great players. And trades of talent for talent will only get us so far. After so many years, Kyrie and Dion leave and we're at square one. The other worst situation is that Varejao straight-up leaves after 2 1/2 more years, which I guess is even worse than keeping him and having him decline. Keep in mind that drafted players are locked up for a lot longer than that.

See? I can do that too. The fact is that EITHER situation could ultimately lead to a championship or complete blow-up of the team. It all comes down to whether or not it's worth the risk of moving Varejao and what a proper price would be if we were to move him. I personally would trade Varejao for a top 5 pick like the Toronto one will likely be along with a young prospect because I think that it's more likely that we'll get good production from the top five pick and a young prospect than we will from Varejao years from now. You may disagree, saying it's not worth the risk and say the draft is a crapshoot. Well, so are injuries and aging. Some players age well, and some don't. Most players fall off after 32 or so. One fact is that Varejao WILL eventually slow down. I just want to give this team a chance to be elite for a long, long time. I don't want the team to be rushed into winning a championship because Varejao's on the verge of declining, thus offsetting any improvements we make in other areas on the team. If we drafted a future all-star or superstar with the TOR pick, this player would be able to give us that production for up to 15 years.

Also, we're never going to sign Varejao for 2 million. That's just idiotic. For all we know, Varejao could command a max contract for his next signing if he keeps these numbers up. Do you want to pay a 33-year-old that much? It's surely not realistic to think that he'll at least make 7 figures per year after this contract is up. After all, he will be making almost 10 million a year anyway by the last year of his contract, and we offered this contract never expecting that he would turn into what he is today. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't feel comfortable giving a big man that much money when he is 33 and has a long history of injuries.

 

[demonmt]

The fact is that EITHER situation could ultimately lead to a championship or complete blow-up of the team. It all comes down to whether or not it's worth the risk of moving Varejao and what a proper price would be if we were to move him. I personally would trade Varejao for a top 5 pick like the Toronto one will likely be along with a young prospect because I think that it's more likely that we'll get good production from the top five pick and a young prospect than we will from Varejao years from now. You may disagree, saying it's not worth the risk and say the draft is a crapshoot. Well, so are injuries and aging. Some players age well, and some don't. Most players fall off after 32 or so. One fact is that Varejao WILL eventually slow down. I just want to give this team a chance to be elite for a long, long time. I don't want the team to be rushed into winning a championship because Varejao's on the verge of declining, thus offsetting any improvements we make in other areas on the team. If we drafted a future all-star or superstar with the TOR pick, this player would be able to give us that production for up to 15 years.

Amen.

 

[Giambiwannabe7]

Isn't the TOR pick top 3 protected? Don't most people expect TOR to be one of the bottom 3 teams(and yes, I understand that doesn't mean it will be a 1-3 pick, but the odds are higher). If we were, say, to get the 4 pick in a poor draft, would people be ok with us getting another guy in TT's category with it? Noone knows shit about what PJIII and lamb will be, either.

I don't know, but it certainly is an enormous dilemma for this FO. I see very, very few opps out there to get anywhere near equal value for Andy.

And this whole 5 years down the road thing is hysterical. When this current contract is up, Andy will most likely be looking at getting a 3 year deal, and the third may very well be a team option. It's not going to be some huge deal. I swear I can't tell if some people just throw shit out just to exagerrate in the attempt to make a point or if they really believe the shit they say.

 

[FiveThous]

this player would be able to give us that production for up to 15 years.

Only ~10 not 15 by your math if players are useless after 30.

 

["Boobie" Gibson]

See? I can do that too. The fact is that EITHER situation could ultimately lead to a championship or complete blow-up of the team. It all comes down to whether or not it's worth the risk of moving Varejao and what a proper price would be if we were to move him. I personally would trade Varejao for a top 5 pick like the Toronto one will likely be along with a young prospect because I think that it's more likely that we'll get good production from the top five pick and a young prospect than we will from Varejao years from now. You may disagree, saying it's not worth the risk and say the draft is a crapshoot. Well, so are injuries and aging. Some players age well, and some don't. Most players fall off after 32 or so. One fact is that Varejao WILL eventually slow down. I just want to give this team a chance to be elite for a long, long time. I don't want the team to be rushed into winning a championship because Varejao's on the verge of declining, thus offsetting any improvements we make in other areas on the team. If we drafted a future all-star or superstar with the TOR pick, this player would be able to give us that production for up to 15 years.

Only ~10 not 15 by your math if players are useless after 30.

What he said ^^ unless they come into the NBA at 17.

All this assumes you actually draft an all-star. I guess the logic is you trade a proven commodity who will be around for another 3 years guaranteed for a gamble. If I was a gambling man, I'd do that. But I'm not, casinos fuck me, so I'll roll with Andy.

 

[demonmt]

What he said ^^ unless they come into the NBA at 17.

All this assumes you actually draft an all-star. I guess the logic is you trade a proven commodity who will be around for another 3 years guaranteed for a gamble. If I was a gambling man, I'd do that. But I'm not, casinos fuck me, so I'll roll with Andy.

Well, not to nitpick, but the average age of lottery draftees these days is ~20 so not 10, but 12 years (if you don't embellish upon what was actually said like FiveThous). I do agree there are two sides to the debate, though it's not "guaranteed" that anyone, including Andy, will be around for another 3 years or at what level.