Tristan Thompson

[marxus]

Are you seriously trying to make the case that Spencer Hawes is a better defensive player than Tristan Thompson? Do you really not understand how bad Spencer Hawes is on that end of the court? Let's put some perspective on your outstanding use of advanced stats.



Defensive rating is a great indicator for how a team's defense performs while a certain player is in a game, but it doesn't hold up as a great comparison between two individual players.

Yes, Hawes posted a lower defensive rating at 106 than Tristan's 108. But let's add some context to those numbers, because throwing out the defensive rating alone doesn't do anything for me. TT has an offensive rating of 110 to go along with his defensive rating of 108, making the Cavs an estimated 2 points better per 100 possessions on the court than off. With Hawes on the court the Cavs had an offensive rating of 108 with the aforementioned 106 defensive rating, meaning Hawes/TT had roughly the same net difference on the game when on the court.

Now, for some more context. Tristan Thompson played about a quarter of the season with Andrew Bynum. The team was absolutely terrible in that stretch, their offensive rating (96.8)* and defensive rating (110.5)* with Bynum/TT on the court was absolutely terrible. That's going to drag his numbers down, not to mention the fact TT started more games with Alonzo Gee at 24 (where he averaged about 20 minutes a game) than Hawes did (6). Bynum/Gee were just absolutely fucking terrible this year, advanced stats and the eye test both confirm this to be true.

*NBAwowy.com - Bynum/TT played 724 possessions together, with the Cavs scoring 701 points while giving up 800.



For the season TT and Hawes both had exactly 2.3 defensive win shares. How's that better than Tristan? Thanks for leaving out offensive win shares (TT- 3.4 Hawes- 2.2) as well, seems pretty selective when using stats that are almost never used exclusively without the other. Others might call it cherry picking. But then again it doesn't help your argument that at 21 and 22 Tristan already produced more combined Win Shares than Hawes has ever produced in a season.



Again with the selective numbers. Looking at defensive rebounding alone is pointless, and it's not even like Hawes is wildly more productive at grabbing defensive boards per game (6.1 to 5.9) than TT. Hawes' Defensive Rebounding % is also only slighter higher (23.6 to 21.5) as well.

When looking at Total Rebounding %, a much better indicator of a player's actual rebounding ability, Tristan comes out ahead at 16.3% to Hawes' 14.5%. That's a slight dip from last year's number for TT (17.5%), but 16.3% actually equates to Spencer Hawes' career best in TRB%.



I can't fight this one. Spencer Hawes has been a much better shot blocker than Tristan has been this year. There's reasons why Tristan rarely blocks shots anymore though, chiefly being rarely playing at minutes at C anymore. Here's a post from a few weeks back that highlights the biggest reasons Tristan isn't blocking shots at a respectable rate anymore (his block rate of 3.3% from his rookie season playing as a 20-year-old is actually the exact same as Hawes' career block percentage):




Other than opponent FG% at the rim, which I'd hope a 7'1'' center is better than a 6'8'' PF at, no advanced metric designed to show individual ability shows Hawes as a better defender than Tristan.

When looking at opponent PER Tristan (17.4) blows Hawes (20.8) out of the water.

When using Synergy Tristan's physical, sound defense grades out worlds better than the slow-footed Hawes. Tristan ended up giving up .9 points per possession on plays where his man attempted a shot or had an assist, a turnover, or a foul. Spencer Hawes was at 1.07 for the Cavs. That is absolutely putrid, it ranks 454 for all NBA players. That's one of the worst marks in the league, especially considering it's coming from our starting center. You know, the position where most teams expect at least a modicum of defensive ability.

But really, you don't even need advanced stats to tell you Tristan is the better defender. Just pop in any game from the last few weeks of the season. I like what Hawes brings to the table offensively but dear god is he an abomination on the defensive end. John Henson and Kelly Olynyk still go to sleep smiling every night after they made Hawes their personal whipping boy. I'm actually in shock there are posters defending his abilities on that side of the court. Other than being over 7 feet Hawes brings absolutely nothing to helping a team stop the opposition.



Not that it's much better, but he finished with 35.

I'd just like to say that I don't think Hawes is a good-or even average- defender. I'm just saying Tristan gets wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too much credit, with absolutely no evidence to support it. Tristan gets so much credit on defense because he's just so terrible on offense that we assume there must be a reason he still gets 30+ minutes a game.

To be honest, I don't even really like any of the team stats for this conversation because of how the team evolved and the inconsistencies throughout the season. Nobody looks good. But, for argument's sake, Bynum's defensive rating was 106, and Alonzo Gee's was 107. Both right around Tristan's 108 on the season. Again, not good, but clearly Tristan doesn't look to be making an positive impact. I'd prefer to ignore small sample size data like Bynum's 15 minutes a game for a third of a season. If Tristan was an impact player, he'd make an impact. That "absolutely terrible" 110 defensive rating with Bynum and TT isn't all that different from TT's 108 overall. Also, for Spencer, I was only using his 27 games with the Cavs and equating them to a year, so his offensive win shares would be right around 3, as would his defensive win shares, and his overall WS/48 would be .114 to Tristan's .106.

Spencer is never going to get a ton of offensive rebounds, due to playing away from the basket. If you look at rebounding opportunities, where the ball comes within 3.5 of a player with a chance at the rebound, Tristan only grabs 54% of those, while Spencer gets 59%. For comparison, Andy grabs 58%, Zeller and AB get 57, Kyrie even gets 55%! Weirdly, Jarrett Jack is among the league leaders at 69.3%. And Tristan, as a rookie, showed signs of becoming an elite offensive rebounder, but he has gotten significantly worse every year, based on his rebounding rate.

The FG% at the rim, Tristan was measured at 6'8.75, 227lbs at the draft camp 3 years ago with a 7'1 wingspan. There is no excuse for allowing 59% at the rim. Kenneth Faried seems to be just fine, only allowing 49% as an undersized hustle PF with no other rim protector next to him, and he measured at 6'7.5. Jared Sullinger only allows 54%. Harrison Barnes(!) allows just 49%!!! Again, Spencer isn't a good rim protector, it's just that Tristan is among the worst in the league, in fact, among guys that defended at least 5 attempts per game, Tristan was second to last. Only Thad Young was worse.

The "eye test" has always told me Tristan looks confused, uncoordinated, and clumsy out there. Spencer always seems to know what to do, just doesn't have the athleticism to always get it done. I think with a full off-season of scheming for Mike Brown, we can find ways to maximize his talent and basketball IQ. TT has had three years and, if anything, is regressing.

 

[Spencer Hawes]

Spencer Hawes vs. TT on defense....like comparing elephant dung to cow manure.....even though both stinks.

 

[Rich]

Spencer was better at rim protection, allowing just 53 percent of attempts at the rim to be converted, while Tristan allows 59. Only Thad Young was worse amongst 4/5s. Tristan is tied for last amongst bigs with Robin Lopez at getting rebounds when the ball comes within 3.5 feet at just 54 percent. His offensive rebounding stats may be inflated due to the team taking the 8th most shots in the NBA, but having the 3rd(I think) worst FG percentage.

Some of these staistics are fairly awful.

This one is as good as any. From this, I'm supposed to assume Robin Lopez is a bad rebounder. Yet his team leads the league in total rebounds per game and is 7th in total rebound rate. How can this be if Robin Lopez is such a bad rebounder? Could it be that he's surrounded by good rebounders on his team AND he does his job, boxes out, and prevents opposing centers from getting rebounds?

 

[Rich]

I'd just like to say that I don't think Hawes is a good-or even average- defender. I'm just saying Tristan gets wayyyyyyyyyyyyy too much credit, with absolutely no evidence to support it. Tristan gets so much credit on defense because he's just so terrible on offense that we assume there must be a reason he still gets 30+ minutes a game.

To be honest, I don't even really like any of the team stats for this conversation because of how the team evolved and the inconsistencies throughout the season. Nobody looks good. But, for argument's sake, Bynum's defensive rating was 106, and Alonzo Gee's was 107. Both right around Tristan's 108 on the season. Again, not good, but clearly Tristan doesn't look to be making an positive impact. I'd prefer to ignore small sample size data like Bynum's 15 minutes a game for a third of a season. If Tristan was an impact player, he'd make an impact. That "absolutely terrible" 110 defensive rating with Bynum and TT isn't all that different from TT's 108 overall. Also, for Spencer, I was only using his 27 games with the Cavs and equating them to a year, so his offensive win shares would be right around 3, as would his defensive win shares, and his overall WS/48 would be .114 to Tristan's .106.

Spencer is never going to get a ton of offensive rebounds, due to playing away from the basket. If you look at rebounding opportunities, where the ball comes within 3.5 of a player with a chance at the rebound, Tristan only grabs 54% of those, while Spencer gets 59%. For comparison, Andy grabs 58%, Zeller and AB get 57, Kyrie even gets 55%! Weirdly, Jarrett Jack is among the league leaders at 69.3%. And Tristan, as a rookie, showed signs of becoming an elite offensive rebounder, but he has gotten significantly worse every year, based on his rebounding rate.

The FG% at the rim, Tristan was measured at 6'8.75, 227lbs at the draft camp 3 years ago with a 7'1 wingspan. There is no excuse for allowing 59% at the rim. Kenneth Faried seems to be just fine, only allowing 49% as an undersized hustle PF with no other rim protector next to him, and he measured at 6'7.5. Jared Sullinger only allows 54%. Harrison Barnes(!) allows just 49%!!! Again, Spencer isn't a good rim protector, it's just that Tristan is among the worst in the league, in fact, among guys that defended at least 5 attempts per game, Tristan was second to last. Only Thad Young was worse.

The "eye test" has always told me Tristan looks confused, uncoordinated, and clumsy out there. Spencer always seems to know what to do, just doesn't have the athleticism to always get it done. I think with a full off-season of scheming for Mike Brown, we can find ways to maximize his talent and basketball IQ. TT has had three years and, if anything, is regressing.

I'm not advocating for Thompson at this point, but look at this.

Spencer, with a full off-season of scheming will be valuable.

Notice Spencer Hawes is going into year 8, and apparently no one has been able to hide his defensive deficiencies yet. Yet Thompson, going into year 4, which will also only be his second year with Brown, he's regressing and that's that.

Here's what can't be schemed for. Spencer Hawes in space. Nothing you can do. If an opposing player drags him out of the paint, he's toast. He can't move his feet and I think at this point we can safely assume he's never going to be able to.

 

[Zen]

If its a choice between TT and Hawes you take TT every time, and I'm not even a big TT fan.

 

[marxus]

I'm not advocating for Thompson at this point, but look at this.

Spencer, with a full off-season of scheming will be valuable.

Notice Spencer Hawes is going into year 8, and apparently no one has been able to hide his defensive deficiencies yet. Yet Thompson, going into year 4, which will also only be his second year with Brown, he's regressing and that's that.

Here's what can't be schemed for. Spencer Hawes in space. Nothing you can do. If an opposing player drags him out of the paint, he's toast. He can't move his feet and I think at this point we can safely assume he's never going to be able to.

Yeah, but Hawes brings a lot more to the table as far as a passer and a floor spacer. How many other centers are going to drag him out of the paint? And he's always been praised for his high basketball IQ. In fact, a quote from his draft profile, "In terms of skill, it appears that Hawes may have been born ready for the league." He's still only 25, about to be 26, so he shouldn't be on the decline anytime soon, especially because he has the type of game that ages well. As for no one being able to hide his defensive deficiencies, Philly had an elite defense, though he was injured a lot in their last year together with Iggy, but in 37 games that season. He has the very unique ability of being a true 7'1 center that can drag the Roy Hibberts of the world out of the lane. Look at how freaked out the Pacers were a couple weeks ago when Hibbert had to leave the paint to guard Pero Antic(!) for Atlanta.

Tristan will always be undersized, has yet to show the ability to defend on the perimeter or the post, can't shoot, pass, or even handle the ball, and has zero touch around the basket. Here's a fun stat: over the past two years, Tristan has had 1 out of every 6.9 field goal attempts blocked. It just seems like we have to "hide" him on offense and defense and, to me anyway, offense and defense have always been the most important parts of the game. I think he'd be a solid energy guy off the bench getting 24 minutes a game, maybe. I'm not saying I want to give up on Tristan entirely, but his agent saying he's looking for 10-11 million a year, a la Derrick Favors(same agent too), or anything near it, that scares the hell out of me.

 

[AuxiliaryPie]

If its a choice between TT and Hawes you take TT every time, and I'm not even a big TT fan.

I completely disagree.

 

[OptimusPrime]

If its a choice between TT and Hawes you take TT every time, and I'm not even a big TT fan.

That depends. If you want someone to play on your team right now, you take Hawes. If you are judging on the whole picture, age, contract, perceived value, then you take Thompson.

 

[Cavsfan1985]

I have a hard time believing they would even offer TT an ext. this summer. If they do, it has to be team friendly, he is the perfect player you let play out next year and enter restricted FA. We then get another year to see how he develops and if we want to pay him big money.

 

[oasis05]

The only ways Thompson gets brought back is if he developes a jumper, or is considered valueless around the league and is untradeable.

 

[oasis05]

Thompson is sugar in Griffin's engine. Thompson is a parasite to a spread floor. The cavs give up too much spacing and get too little performance to consider this guy a core part of the team. I want him gone.

 

[marxus]

Some of these staistics are fairly awful.

This one is as good as any. From this, I'm supposed to assume Robin Lopez is a bad rebounder. Yet his team leads the league in total rebounds per game and is 7th in total rebound rate. How can this be if Robin Lopez is such a bad rebounder? Could it be that he's surrounded by good rebounders on his team AND he does his job, boxes out, and prevents opposing centers from getting rebounds?

Alright, team rebound rate? The Cavs are at 51.7% with Tristan on the court and 50.6% with him off, so 1.1% difference. That's good for one extra rebound every game and a half or so. I'd say he doesn't have a huge impact there. Robin Lopez is a plus 1.3% with him on the floor for the Blazers.

I guess, I don't know what else to say about Tristan. I agree that no individual stat tells the story, but after a while, we're starting to see a pattern that Tristan doesn't bring anything to the table for the Cavs. He can't shoot inside or outside. He can't defend inside or outside. He's doesn't offer much help rebounding. I'd just like to know what you like so much about him or what you see him turning into and when???

 

[Rich]

Yeah, but Hawes brings a lot more to the table as far as a passer and a floor spacer. How many other centers are going to drag him out of the paint? And he's always been praised for his high basketball IQ. In fact, a quote from his draft profile, "In terms of skill, it appears that Hawes may have been born ready for the league." He's still only 25, about to be 26, so he shouldn't be on the decline anytime soon, especially because he has the type of game that ages well. As for no one being able to hide his defensive deficiencies, Philly had an elite defense, though he was injured a lot in their last year together with Iggy, but in 37 games that season. He has the very unique ability of being a true 7'1 center that can drag the Roy Hibberts of the world out of the lane. Look at how freaked out the Pacers were a couple weeks ago when Hibbert had to leave the paint to guard Pero Antic(!) for Atlanta.

Tristan will always be undersized, has yet to show the ability to defend on the perimeter or the post, can't shoot, pass, or even handle the ball, and has zero touch around the basket. Here's a fun stat: over the past two years, Tristan has had 1 out of every 6.9 field goal attempts blocked. It just seems like we have to "hide" him on offense and defense and, to me anyway, offense and defense have always been the most important parts of the game. I think he'd be a solid energy guy off the bench getting 24 minutes a game, maybe. I'm not saying I want to give up on Tristan entirely, but his agent saying he's looking for 10-11 million a year, a la Derrick Favors(same agent too), or anything near it, that scares the hell out of me.

A quote from his draft profile? Dude, when you're going into year 8 I really don't care what the hell his draft profile says at that point. We have enough NBA evidence to go on that whatever was said about him coming out of college is meaningless.

And you can't hide HIS defensive deficiencies. You can still have a good team defense, especially during the regular season, but he's always a guy who will be exposed by a good team in the playoffs. I mean we saw the same shit with Mo Williams. Covered for him for an entire year, and playing the bad teams of the world helps out too. But in the playoffs, the guy was fucking toast and we couldn't hide him. That's exponentially worse when you're talking about trying to hide your center.

At this point I don't really care what we do with Thompson. I've said everyone on this team should be up for grabs. All of them look replaceable at this point. But all one needs to do is just watch the last 3-4 games of the season where Hawes couldn't guard a single player. Games where he was taken out for defensive purposes for ZELLER. Games where he couldn't guard Olynyk, so then for a sequence they have him guard Bass, and he gets muscled by a power forward and gives up an and 1. Games where John Henson shoulders him off the block for an easy hook and the very next player blows right by him for a lay-up.

I mean those last few games, whew. Milwaukee and Boston were specifically targeting Hawes. It was embarrassing. They'd come down the court and throw it whoever Hawes was guarding. Didn't matter where and didn't matter the player. Olynyk, Bass, Henson. None of them offensive wizards you decide to run a set through at this point. All of them obliterating Hawes almost every possession. I don't want that from my Center.

 

[NarlCavs]

Sure Tristan is a good guy and a hard worker but it's time to move on. He is what he is. There's no way I invest serious money in him. You can get a PF to give you a similar game and similar stats at a lesser cost. By the end of the season I had grown tired of watching him and his awkward offensive game that still lacks skill, still continually getting his shot blocked and too often failing to finish in the post, and his overrated defense.
He'll have a long career as a limited hard working role player but you don't build with him and it's now clear it was a mistake drafting him 4th overall.

 

[The Process God]

As of right now, Tristan's ceiling is somewhere around a starting power forward with elite rebounding, above average defending, and a decent face-up driving game that is ultimately limited by his inability to shoot a jump shot. He'll be able to start for some, lesser teams as an average starting power forward, but on many other, more elite teams, he would have to be on the bench because he would clog the lane. Tristan's been figured out, which is why he is suffering, and if he ever wants to become a more athletic Anderson without as good of passing or basketball IQ, which is a pretty damn good player, he needs that jump shot. It could be the difference of ~$10-20m on a 4-year contract and a lot more over his career.

Let's hope he develops one so it increases his trade value. I'm ready for Bennett.