2003 was by any account a rebuilding year. Since then, they've been about .500 3 times and won 90 games 2x. The worst year was 2006, when they won 78, but their Pythagorean W-L was 89-73, making them about the unluckiest team in the last half decade.
No such thing as "luck" in sports, at least not over such an extended period of time. This club hasn't been unlucky. This team has had lousy bullpens that have given up leads, an inconsistent offense that is slow, overreliant on the long ball, underreliant on run manufacturing, and strikeout prone (the kind of offense that will win one game 14-2 and lose the next three games 3-1) and a brain-dead manager that has no feel for when to pull a starting pitcher. Those are the reasons this club has underplayed its Pythogorean. Not luck.
BTW, how come the Browns never get the rebuilding excuse? I mean, one would have to consider 1999, 2000 and 2005, 2006 at least as rebuilding years for them. But you never hear excuses made for the Browns like that. Everyone knows they're a trainwreck. But hell, they've had as many winning seasons since 2002 as the Indians.
Shapiro's draft record has been spotty, but he's made a few killer deals that replenished the farm system.
Definitely. Problem is, those killer deals are the kind clubs make when they're out of the race by the All-Star Break. You don't trade established players for prospects if you think there's a chance to win something. Those are white-flag deals almost every time. So basically, it's when his club sucks that Shapiro really shines as a GM. A mixed blessing. And unsustainable as an organizational strategy.
There's a ripple effect from the poor drafts as well. Shapiro constantly wastes resources on tomato cans like David Dellucci, Joe Borowski, Todd Hollandsworth, Aaron Boone, Kerry Wood et al is because those roles aren't being filled from within by players who have come up through the organization. Draft better, and those resources can go someplace else. It isn't the money Shapiro can't spend that concerns me. It's the money he does spend- and who it goes to.
If he's fired, the Indians will look for a cheap GM, one who knows he's working with a limited payroll. Basically, they'll be getting Shapiro from 8 years ago. Tell me how that makes the situation any better?
Maybe they'll find a GM who can actually draft. The late '80s and early '90s Indians were just as hamstrung as the present-day club, if not more, yet they managed to produce Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Charles Nagy and Brian Giles out of the amateur draft during that period- among others. Shapiro hasn't drafted a single player who is as productive as any of those guys. Not even close. Who is the best position player drafted under his watch? Ryan Garko? Come on. He's got to do better than that.
As for the payroll, how limited is it, really? Last I checked it was up over 80 million dollars, which is roughly middle of the pack in MLB. Actually, the payroll is a little high, considering what they've been drawing the last few years. I think an 80 million dollar payroll is plenty enough for this club to compete in this division against the likes of the Twins, Royals, and Chicago's second team.
The same thing with Wedge. We'll be hiring a career minor league manager, who would be similar to Wedge in 2003.
That might be true. But sometimes you have to chop off a head. Just to show the fans there's some accountability within the organization. Just to show the fans you're taking some kind of action. I personally think Wedge is a troglodyte, a 2009 manager with a 1909 brain. I would have fired his ass after the '06 season. The fans don't like him, his teams always choke, he ran Brandon Phillips out of town- just get rid of him already. I don't care if it's his fault or not.
I am not saying Shapiro and Wedge are great, but given the situation, we aren't going to find anyone better, unless Dolan radically loosens up on the purse strings.
It isn't going to happen, and it shouldn't. People aren't showing up to the ballpark. You can't in good conscience ask Larry Dolan to front a 100, 150-million dollar payroll for what is consistently one of the worst draws in baseball. It doesn't cost much to draft and develop talent. The people running the baseball side need to be more efficient. It isn't on the payroll, it's on them. No more excuses.