Both teams are staggering under the weight of multiple injuries to key players. The Heat will not have Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson, and Kevin Love. Those four combine to average 53 points per game. In addition, Jaime Jaquez and Caleb Martin are questionable. Those two average 22.6 points between them. The Heat only average 109.4 points as a team, so missing anywhere from 53-76 points is really going to hurt them.
But never fear - they still have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Terry Rozier. Butler had 30 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals against the Cavs this week while Rozier is averaging 24 points against them this year. Rozier, a chronic Cav-killer, scored 24 on Wednesday including 9 points in the final minute and a half when the game was decided. Ancient Kyle Lowry averages 22.5 points against the Cavs this year and is 10-for-19 on 3’s in two games.
Still, if the Heat are missing 5 of the top 9 players in their rotation they will be hard pressed to score. On Friday they managed just 88 points against the Pelicans with Jaquez and Martin combining for just 3 points in 31 minutes. They both are dealing with knee soreness.
The Cavs will be missing Mitchell, Strus, and Wade for sure, but Evan Mobley is listed as questionable and Chris Fedor says he very well could play for the first time since spraining his ankle nearly three weeks ago.
The Heat rank 27th in points per game, points in the paint, and fast break points. They are 28th in 2-point percentage. They play slower than all but one team, ranking 28th in field goal attempts per game and 29th in pace. They are average in 3-point rate and 3-point percentage. Herro averages 20.8 ppg, Robinson 13.5, Richardson 9.9, and Love 9.0 and they will be missing all that scoring.
However, they will have three of their top four scorers in Butler (21.5), Adebayo (20.8), and Rozier (15.6). Against the Cavs on Wednesday Butler and Rozier combined for 54 of the Heat’s 107 points. Rozier was 5-for-6 on 3’s.
Defensively the Heat rank 4th in scoring defense and won Wednesday’s game by holding the Cavs to 104 points. Only one team allows fewer points in the paint despite ranking last in shot blocking percentage. They rank 4th in rebound rate so you better make your first shot. The Heat rank 9th in forcing turnovers so ball security is big.
They only rank 17th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, so they are average at forcing missed shots. But because their pace is extremely slow and they are above average at forcing turnovers they limit opponents’ shot attempts. They don’t foul much, either. The key is to avoid turnovers and hit the first shot.
Hopefully the Heat will not have Jaquez and Martin, in which case they will be missing 6 of their top 9 scorers from a team that ranks 27th in scoring. In that case they would have almost no bench. Against the Pelicans on Friday the Heat shot 36% from the field and 28% on 3’s. Martin and Jaquez combined to shoot 1-for-15 so I don’t think they were 100% two days ago.
The Cavs could really use a win here as they are just one game ahead of the Knicks. The Heat are tied for 7th place just 1.5 games behind the 6th place Pacers for the last spot to avoid the play-in. The Cavaliers have a home game against Charlotte tomorrow night.
Injury report
CLEVELAND
Dean Wade - OUT (knee)
Ty Jerome - OUT (ankle)
Evan Mobley - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Max Strus - OUT (knee)
Donovan Mitchell - OUT (knee)
MIAMI
Kevin Love - OUT (heel)
Duncan Robinson - OUT (back)
Tyler Herro - OUT (foot)
Josh Richardson - OUT (shoulder)
Jaime Jaquez - OUT (knee/ankle)
Caleb Martin - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
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Game Previews courtesy of @Wham with the Right Hand
Game Previews courtesy of @Wham with the Right Hand