Wild Card Watch

[Steve_424]

 

[ajz20]

This team and the words wild card and postseason should not be linked together the rest of the season. Sorry but, there was very little reason to create this thread. To many holes in the every day lineup, Kazmir has a dead arm. Kluber is on the Dl and they still have a to play Det, Altanta, Baltimore and Oakland (9 of those games on the road) Also, they are not going to finish above all of these teams
Oak/Texas loser, Baltimore and KC.
Not to the mention they dont have enough hitting, our depth in the bullpen.
I would advise everyone to stop expecting this team to make the playoffs, you are just in denial at this point.

 

[Steve_424]

This team and the words wild card and postseason should not be linked together the rest of the season. Sorry but, there was very little reason to create this thread. To many holes in the every day lineup, Kazmir has a dead arm. Kluber is on the Dl and they still have a to play Det, Altanta, Baltimore and Oakland (9 of those games on the road) Also, they are not going to finish above all of these teams
Oak/Texas loser, Baltimore and KC.
Not to the mention they dont have enough hitting, our depth in the bullpen.
I would advise everyone to stop expecting this team to make the playoffs, you are just in denial at this point.

I've been told this several times this season. The Indians keep coming back.

It's fine if you want to give up on the playoffs, but I'm not. This team has been streaky all year, and while this homestand has been a killer and probably taken them out of the Division race, they are one winning streak away from getting into the Wild Card race.

The Indians have 10 vs MIN, 6 vs KC, 6 vs CHW, 3 vs OAK, 3 vs LAA, 3 vs ATL, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs NYM, 3 vs HOU. They are very much in this, despite this nightmare week. Going on the road might be the best thing for them right now.

 

[ajz20]

I've been told this several times this season. The Indians keep coming back.

It's fine if you want to give up on the playoffs, but I'm not. This team has been streaky all year, and while this homestand has been a killer and probably taken them out of the Division race, they are one winning streak away from getting into the Wild Card race.

The Indians have 10 vs MIN, 6 vs KC, 6 vs CHW, 3 vs OAK, 3 vs LAA, 3 vs ATL, 3 vs BAL, 3 vs NYM, 3 vs HOU. They are very much in this, despite this nightmare week. Going on the road might be the best thing for them right now.

Not trying to mean, but I just fell of my couch laughing that you are so intent on keeping this fantasy alive.

They dont have the talent to do it. The wild card race is going to be watching teams get further and further ahead of us and waving good bye. Trust me we will all be laughing our asses off about the word playoffs in less then a week ( I am already LMAO now.) The schedule is not as easy as it seems, when you add the KC games and understand that teams like the Mets could easily come in to cleveland and take 2 out of three (with pitchers like Harvey and Wheeler.) Dont forgot, we struggled to take 2 out of 3 from both Houston and Miami. Your clean up hitter is an embarrassment, your third baseman looks like a AAA player, and you struggle to score on a nightly basis, have two injured pitchers in the rotation, have bull pen questions. and Texas/Oakland Baltimore, an yes even KC have a better roster. It is best you let this go, and just take the team for what it is,

the A;s are 16 games over .500 and dont have a tough schedule by any means
If they go 4 games over 500 (that is if they under achieve) that will put them at 20 games over 500
Now you have to also assume Bal and Kc play poorly two,
then you need to go 28-16 just to tie Oakland. Just not realistic with all the problems on the roster.

 

[Frank Stallone]

Not trying to mean, but I just fell of my couch laughing that you are so intent on keeping this fantasy alive.

They dont have the talent to do it. The wild card race is going to be watching teams get further and further ahead of us and waving good bye. Trust me we will all be laughing our asses off about the word playoffs in less then a week ( I am already LMAO now.) The schedule is not as easy as it seems, when you add the KC games and understand that teams like the Mets could easily come in to cleveland and take 2 out of three (with pitchers like Harvey and Wheeler.) Dont forgot, we struggled to take 2 out of 3 from both Houston and Miami. Your clean up hitter is an embarrassment, your third baseman looks like a AAA player, and you struggle to score on a nightly basis, have two injured pitchers in the rotation, have bull pen questions. and Texas/Oakland Baltimore, an yes even KC have a better roster. It is best you let this go, and just take the team for what it is,

the A;s are 16 games over .500 and dont have a tough schedule by any means
If they go 4 games over 500 (that is if they under achieve) that will put them at 20 games over 500
Now you have to also assume Bal and Kc play poorly two,
then you need to go 28-16 just to tie Oakland. Just not realistic with all the problems on the roster.

Were you drunk when you typed this?

Its way too early to tell if they are out this for sure, or not.

 

[MoFlo]

Despite our stretch recently, we've stayed even with Oakland over the last 10 games and have only lost 1 game on Tampa. Very much still in this despite what most fans think & want to believe.

 

[ajz20]

Were you drunk when you typed this?

Its way too early to tell if they are out this for sure, or not.

LOL no it is not. Oakland is 16 games over 500. They are good enough to finish 20-22 games over, and that is conservative. The Tribe would have to go 28-16 minimum with all the holes on the roster. Sorry guys, but the chances are slim at best. You are drunk on the koolaid if you think it is likely.

I see them going 3-6 (that is being nice) versus ALT, Det and Oakland. Still have to also play Bal and then KC twice. You still have a horrid clean up hitter and the offense is up and down at best. Kluber is hurt, and Kazmir has a dead arm, plus I dont trust Jimenez one bit. Oh yeah, the bullpen is also up and down, and you have a losing record on the road. Does that sound like a team about to play over 600 ball?

It is not like you have to beat out one team. You have KC, Balt and Texas or Oakland. It is foolish to expect a post season birth.
They are sill in good shape in 2014, if they can have a good off-season, but the playoffs is fantasy for this year.

 

[MoFlo]

LOL no it is not. Oakland is 16 games over 500. They are good enough to finish 20-22 games over, and that is conservative. The Tribe would have to go 28-16 minimum with all the holes on the roster. Sorry guys, but the chances are slim at best. You are drunk on the koolaid if you think it is likely.

I see them going 3-6 (that is being nice) versus ALT, Det and Oakland. Still have to also play Bal and then KC twice. You still have a horrid clean up hitter and the offense is up and down at best.

It is not like you have to beat out one team. You have KC, Balt and Texas or Oakland. It is foolish to expect a post season birth.

Oakland is 10-11 since the all-star break & have lost 7 out of 10.

Baltimore has gone 7-9 over their last 16 games.

Tampa has lost 4 in a row and 6 of their last 8.

I don't know about expecting to get into the postseason, but it's a lil foolish to believe we're done & out of it at this point..

 

[Derek]

If you're only 4 games out with a month and a half to go, the playoffs are still a possibility. It's not far fetched at all to think they have a shot.

 

[getBUCKED]

Have to laugh at ajz acting like his opinion is superior to anybody's... :chuckles: :chuckles: :chuckles:

Anyways, our teams seems to have great chemistry and Francona is a proven leader. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, but we should be right there by season's end have a chance to sneak in.

 

[Scholar]

Not trying to mean, but I just fell of my couch laughing that you are so intent on keeping this fantasy alive.

I wouldn't call it being mean. I'd call it being an ass. There is no reason to post in this arrogant belittling manner. Crap like the comment I bolded are not needed nor appropriate here. All of your posts in this thread are written in this way. This is suppose to be the forum where we try to discuss sports in a well thought out, methodical, and logical manner. How about trying that approach?

Also, nothing SGM is posting is unreasonable. This isn't like it's the last week of the season and we are at the stage where a loss or two would end our chances mathematically. It also doesn't mean a "watch" thread has to be for something that we are even likely to succeed at. We have enough games left that we have a "reasonable" chance at it. Doesn't mean that I necessarily expect them to make it either. I think they are mentally weak, as in not handling pressure well. That's my feelings on their folding to the Tigers multiple times. But, as has been already mentioned, they are also streaky as hell. One streak away from being right back in the picture.

That is the way I think this has to be approached. We have a chance. Maybe not the best chance, but a reasonable one. You keep an eye on things till things finally are determined. Course, you can keep on treating this the way you are. Decide things look bleak and just bail. I've even seen that approach recently at a certain game six finals. Do you really want to take the same approach as a Heat fan? :chuckles:

 

[ajz20]

I wouldn't call it being mean. I'd call it being an ass. There is no reason to post in this arrogant belittling manner. Crap like the comment I bolded are not needed nor appropriate here. All of your posts in this thread are written in this way. This is suppose to be the forum where we try to discuss sports in a well thought out, methodical, and logical manner. How about trying that approach?

Also, nothing SGM is posting is unreasonable. This isn't like it's the last week of the season and we are at the stage where a loss or two would end our chances mathematically. It also doesn't mean a "watch" thread has to be for something that we are even likely to succeed at. We have enough games left that we have a "reasonable" chance at it. Doesn't mean that I necessarily expect them to make it either. I think they are mentally weak, as in not handling pressure well. That's my feelings on their folding to the Tigers multiple times. But, as has been already mentioned, they are also streaky as hell. One streak away from being right back in the picture.

That is the way I think this has to be approached. We have a chance. Maybe not the best chance, but a reasonable one. You keep an eye on things till things finally are determined. Course, you can keep on treating this the way you are. Decide things look bleak and just bail. I've even seen that approach recently at a certain game six finals. Do you really want to take the same approach as a Heat fan? :chuckles:

Of course we have a "chance", it is just not a very good one when you look at the numbers objectively, (the projections give this team an 18.8 and 17.5 (espn and baseball prospectus) percent chance of making the playoffs with about 7 wees left. Those stats dont factor in a missing Kluber, Kazmir with arm issues and the fact that the offense has major holes. You also have a losing record on the road well into the season (so it is very likely the team will play at that rate the rest of the year) So that forces them to play at a very very high level at home, and hoping neither Baltimore, Oakland and even perhaps KC play well.


By the way, I dont have a superior opinion, it is just backed up by probability and statistics well into a 162 season. I think Baseball Prospectus has been proven to be pretty accurate in terms of probability this late in the year, and a 17 percent chance is kind of low. The idea of a wild card watch (for me), is to scoreboard watch and hang on every game and night because you are so close to the playoffs you can taste it. I just dont think that will be in the cards come September, when they are 6-7 games out of the final wildcard chasing 2-3 teams ahead of them.

 

[AZ_]

Of course we have a chance, it is just not a very good one when you look at the numbers objectively, (the projections give this team an 18.8 and 17.5 (espn and baseball prospectus) percent chance of making the playoffs with about 7 wees left. Those stats dont factor in a missing Kluber, Kazmir with arm issues and the fact that the offense has major wholes. You also have a losing record on the road well into the season (so it is very likely the team will play at rate the rest of the year) So that forces them to play at a very very high level at home, and hoping neither Baltimore, Oakland and even perhaps KC play well.

You're not looking at the numbers of other teams objectively, so it's difficult to take you seriously at this point.

Putting teams like Oakland on a pedestal like they're so far and away better than Cleveland, they have one hitter with an OPS over .800 and Bartolo Colon is the best pitcher on their pitching staff.

 

[ajz20]

You're not looking at the numbers of other teams objectively, so it's difficult to take you seriously at this point.

Putting teams like Oakland on a pedestal like they're so far and away better than Cleveland, they have one hitter with an OPS over .800 and Bartolo Colon is the best pitcher on their pitching staff.

Well, they are 16 games over 500, so at this point I would say that is a pretty significant advantage. Baseball prospectus gives them a 74.5 percent chance of making the playoffs based on the current data. As far as people saying they have played .500 ball for an extended period, then you have to also admit that we have played one game under 500 since Gomes hit that walk off winner in late May vs Seattle.
You also have to beat out Baltimore and KC, who are playing better baseball as of late. (we technically trail KC in the loss column)
To be honest it seems a lot more likely we finish in 3rd place in the division versus winning the second wild card.

 

[Derek]

Well, they are 16 games over 500, so at this point I would say that is a pretty significant advantage. Baseball prospectus gives them a 74.5 percent chance of making the playoffs based on the current data. As far as people saying they have played .500 ball for an extended period, then you have to also admit that we have played one game under 500 since Gomes hit that walk off winner in late May vs Seattle.
You also have to beat out Baltimore and KC, who are playing better baseball as of late. (we technically trail KC in the loss column)
To be honest it seems a lot more likely we finish in 3rd place in the division versus winning the second wild card.

You're not exactly going out on a limb here considering we are basically tied with KC at the moment. That doesn't mean that the playoffs are an unreachable pipe dream.