tedginnjr
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Youth movement could boost Indians
By Kevin Goldstein
Baseball Prospectus
There is little argument that the Cleveland Indians have been the biggest surprise of the year so far on a team level. Whether one thinks this is real doesn't matter in many ways, as having the best record in baseball in early May already changes the team's 2011 outlook significantly.
Given only a 3.8 percent chance of reaching the playoffs on Opening Day, Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds still sees Cleveland as a sub-.500 team from here on out, but the hot start has increased their postseason chances nearly tenfold, to 37.8 percent heading into Wednesday's action. For you horse racing buffs, they've gone from a 26-1 long shot to better than 3-1 odds of needing to call the printer about playoff tickets.
As for Indians general manager Chris Antonetti, he's cautiously optimistic. "Going into spring training, we felt like we had a talented roster but one that was very young," he explained to me. "With youth, you are never sure about how fast it will develop. We've had some of these young players take that next step and help us win games, while we've mixed in veterans to not only help us win but provide leadership the young players can learn from."
No matter how you measure the current talent in Cleveland, there is every reason to believe the Indians are going to be an even more talented team on paper in future years. Evaluating the team's minor league collection of talent is a difficult balance. Although the Indians lack those obvious star-level studs, they make up for it with incredible depth, as one could easily argue that no other organization has as many future big leaguers, some of whom could play a role on the team this year.
But the winning suddenly changes philosophies, as giving prospects a look is an acceptable risk for a team that's out of the race, but winning records can leave some players on the farm for a while, as Antonetti indicated that the team's sudden success could change things up. "We want to take advantage of any window of opportunity we have," Antonetti said. "We'll continue to place an emphasis on winning at the major league level, but it's inevitable that injuries and performance issues will crop up and we will need to make adjustments."
One such adjustment came this past weekend, when 2009 first-round pick Alex White was summoned to the big leagues to replace Carlos Carrasco and his sore elbow. Normally, this would be seen as a top prospect getting a reward for his hard work on the farm, but with White putting up a 1.90 ERA in four Triple-A starts, the decision was made with different factors. "We felt White was the best player to start the game in terms of giving us the ability to win," Antonetti said.
Injuries, such as the one that created the opportunity for White, are nearly impossible to predict, and although the science of performance projections is hardly a perfect one, there is certainly some room for further optimism, as two of the team's top hitters, catcher Carlos Santana and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo could be expected to improve from their early-season slumps.
That said, there are certainly also players we can expect regressions from, and the Indians have one prospect who could help in the second half, should a "performance issue" crop up at the hot corner. The position is currently manned at the big league level by Jack Hannahan, a 31-year-old who entered the season with a career batting line of .224/.311/.347 in 290 games -- with both the averages and the service time showing that he has spent the majority of his career as a minor league organizational soldier, and with good reason. If you think players with his age and background normally suddenly hit .284/.359/.481, where Hannahan sits after 23 games, I know of a wonderfully charming bridge in Brooklyn that might interest you, but instead of real estate transactions, let's talk about Lonnie Chisenhall.
A first-round pick in 2008 out of a North Carolina junior college after getting kicked off the South Carolina team for breaking into a dorm room, Chisenhall has put his past behind him and is solely known for his play on the field at this time, quickly moving to the upper part of Cleveland prospect lists thanks to one of the prettiest swings in the minors. After hitting 22 home runs while reaching Double-A in his 2009 full-season debut, Chisenhall was among the hottest hitters in the Eastern League in the second half of 2010, and he has recovered from another slow start this season by going 13-for-33 (.394) in his past eight games for Triple-A Columbus to raise his averages to .277/.378/.426 in 24 games. Beyond the swing, Chisenhall has solid tools across the board, as he has the power to hit 20-plus home runs a year and has fundamentally sound defensive abilities, with his speed the only below-average tool.
The Indians have other prospects at Columbus close to the big leagues, most notably second baseman Jason Kipnis, who is riding a hot streak of his own and hitting .276/.390/.471 in 24 games. A Cleveland team performing as expected (that is, poorly) likely would create a second-half opening for Kipnis, but the nature of the Indians' win-loss record has transformed Orlando Cabrera from midseason trade chip to veteran leader, leaving Kipnis in line for little more than limited big league exposure in September should the club's winning ways continue.
But that same win-loss record could actually accelerate the timetable of Chisenhall. The need to win could create pressure if/when Hannahan turns back into a pumpkin, and although scouts mostly agree that Chisenhall is not a finished product, he's certainly close enough to contribute.
"This can be a humbling game, and precisely laid plans rarely work out," said Antonetti when referring to his team's quick start. And how those plans change will dramatically affect when we see two of Cleveland's top upper-level prospects in the big leagues.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=6477766
