[Playoff Matchup Thread] Cleveland vs. Boston

3 of our main guys (Moz, Love, Kyrie) played with foul trouble today in our house. It'll be interesting to see them adapt in Boston with a little way more home cooking. Something tells me they're gonna "drop" one game if they don't get their act together. Though it's interesting to note that there are many top seed teams struggle in the first round throughout the history. In fact, ATL, CHI, and GS are doing the same this year so far.

Interestingly Cleveland has the lowest pace of all 16 playoff teams, and the highest offensive rating of 112.8 by a huge margin. I don't know if it's good or bad, but it's a bit weird. What's the reason for this small number of possessions per game do you think?

This series is like when I play the 40+ guys in my office in basketball. I mess around shooting 3's and stepbacks, but if it gets close I can get a layup whenever I want it. But what fun is it just taking layups? (Yep, I am comparing myself to LeBron. Completely reasonable analogy).

So some of the positives from last night are - LeBron can have a terrible game and still go 30-9-7. Love is actually helping on defense, as is JR. Mozgov is a huge presence in the paint and if the refs ever stop calling bs fouls on him, he could actually close out a game. TT is the most impressive offensive rebounder this team has ever had. Shumpert is a hawk. His jumpshot is still awful, but he doesn't need to score of he plays with the starters and can still draw guys out to the 3 point line (possible reason to have JR off the bench for a scoring punch). And finally, the refs were awful and we still came through, didn't bitch (the team, not us because we bitched) and hit big shot after big shot. The Celtics know they're not going to win the series, so they have no pressure on them. Once we start playing teams that provide more of a threat, I'm pretty sure we're going to flip the metaphorical switch.

Yeah, I'm not sure I'd rely on flipping that switch. This game made me nervous. It was a playoff game after all, so we should be taking it seriously. The talent differential is like the JV (Celtics) vs the varsity so it shouldn't be this close. It was like a compendium of all our weaknesses --

--offense often looks confused and ineffective without Lebron or Kyrie playing ISO-ball

--defense is good in spurts but can't be relied on consistently for stops.

--live by the 3, die by the 3 -- if they aren't falling we have a hard time varying our game

--front line cannot score reliably outside of Love shooting 3s and the occasional Mozgov alley-oop,

It's not that we're bad, it's that we should be better. We have two legit superstars and what should be a solid supporting cast, but we are not yet maximizing our talent.

Evgeni said:

Interestingly Cleveland has the lowest pace of all 16 playoff teams, and the highest offensive rating of 112.8 by a huge margin. I don't know if it's good or bad, but it's a bit weird. What's the reason for this small number of possessions per game do you think?

Click to expand...

That's essentially a recipe for supreme playoff success.

1) Limit the amount of possessions available to the other team (which is what happens in the playoffs anyway)

2) Score the lights out on the possessions you do have the ball.

theSTEREO. said:

That's essentially a recipe for supreme playoff success.

1) Limit the amount of possessions available to the other team (which is what happens in the playoffs anyway)

2) Score the lights out on the possessions you do have the ball.

Click to expand...

This stat reflects the number of possessions for Cleveland, doesn't it? The other team can have more possessions. Also what style of play of the Cavs causes this slow pace?

Evgeni said:

This stat reflects the number of possessions for Cleveland, doesn't it? The other team can have more possessions. Also what style of play of the Cavs causes this slow pace?

Click to expand...

Possessions start with a defensive rebound, a turnover, or a jump ball. Teams can only get 1 more possession than their opponent each quarter.

The main reason why the Cavs pace is slow is because they are getting the offensive rebounds. An offensive rebound can turn a 20 second possession into a 40 second possession. The simplest explanation why the Cavs are getting the offensive rebounds is because they are playing big.

The other reason that the Cavs are playing slow is related to the big lineup/ Big lineups are rarely running lineups. They are usually "grind out in the 1/2 court" lineups. They tend to take 20+ seconds to generate a shot more often than a small lineups.

Dude....

cavsfever said:

--offense often looks confused and ineffective without Lebron or Kyrie playing ISO-ball

Click to expand...

Well, the Cavs the most efficient offense in the playoffs so far by a LARGE margin. Scoring nearly 5 more PPG per 100 than every other team.

Also, the Cavs have the second highest TS% and eFG% of any team in the playoffs thus far.

And yet, ISO has been only a small part of our offense. So I'd say the offense is looking just fine.

cavsfever said:

--defense is good in spurts but can't be relied on consistently for stops.

Click to expand...

Cavs have been middle of the pack thus far for defense. Also, Moz is holding opponents to 33% shooting at the rim, K. Love holding opponents to 40%.

Cavs as a team holding the C's to just 42% shooting overall.

So yeah, it can be better, but to say it cannot be consistently relied on is a bit of an exaggeration.

cavsfever said:

--live by the 3, die by the 3 -- if they aren't falling we have a hard time varying our game

Click to expand...

Cavs are shooting 33.3% from 3 in the playoffs. Which would've been 26th in the league during the regular season. So our threes have not been falling. At all.

And yet we are not dying. As I mentioned above, we still have by far the most efficient offense in the league.

So I do not anticipate us dying by the three. If nothing else, we will scrap by without the three, but dominate with it once they are falling like normal.

cavsfever said:

--front line cannot score reliably outside of Love shooting 3s and the occasional Mozgov alley-oop,

Click to expand...

Mozgov is our 4th leading scorer. I only recall one or two oops so far.

Love has been horrible from three this series. He's actually been most effective on the block and drawing FT attempts.

Tristan is not asked, nor required to score on this team, so that shouldn't be a worry.

cavsfever said:

It's not that we're bad, it's that we should be better. We have two legit superstars and what should be a solid supporting cast, but we are not yet maximizing our talent.

Click to expand...

I agree with this. But it's hardly been as dismal as you are thinking.

Cavs are shooting 30 3s a game so far and making 10 a game(33.3%) much below their season percentage(36.8%). Of the 30 3s they've taken, 12.5 have been open(4-6 feet) and 10.0 have been wide open (6+ feet) according to NBA.com. On those 22.5 open or wide open 3s, they've shot 31% and on the 7.5 tight or very tightly guarded 3s they've shot 40%.

After the all-star break, they were shooting 31.3 3s a game and making 12.2(38.9%). Of those 31.3 3s, 24.8 were open or wide open and they were making them at a rate of 40.7% and they were shooting 6.5 tight or very tight 3s and making 30.7% of them which seems to be more typical. So, against the Celtics 75% of their 3s are wide open or open which is somewhat less than the 79.2% of the post-all star break 3 attempts.

A HUGE difference in this series so far has been Cavs players taking and missing open or wide open 3s. I don't see that holding up and even if their efficiency goes down on the 7.5 tight or very tight 3s they've been shooting a higher percentage on, their overall 3pt efficiency is due to go up. Boston isn't the reason they are missing 3s, cold shooting is.

As for Boston, they're shooting 22 3s a game and making 7 of them(31.8%) which is down from their season percentage of 32.7%. Of the 22 3s they've taken, 16 have been open or wide open and they're making 34.3% of them as compared to their post all-star percentage of 33.7%. They are shooting 6 tight or very tight 3s a game and making 25% of them as compared to 29.1% post all-star. So, against the Celtics they are getting 73% of their 3s as wide open or open which is somewhat less than the 77% of their post all-star attempts.

Bottom line: The Celtics are shooting slightly worse from 3 than usual due to making a worse percentage of contested 3s and getting less open looks even though they are hitting more of those open looks than usual. The Cavs are shooting significantly worse from 3 than usual due to making a much worse percentage of open looks. Even though they are shooting better on tight looks than usual, the difference in efficiency isn't made up because they are getting 3 open or wide open 3 attempts for every one tight attempt.

I expect the Cavs to start making open 3s eventually and when they do, it won't be pretty for Boston.

Source: NBA.com Shots Tracking

theSTEREO. said:

Dude....

Well, the Cavs the most efficient offense in the playoffs so far by a LARGE margin. Scoring nearly 5 more PPG per 100 than every other team.

Also, the Cavs have the second highest TS% and eFG% of any team in the playoffs thus far.

And yet, ISO has been only a small part of our offense. So I'd say the offense is looking just fine.

Click to expand...

Correct, and the only 2 teams that are close in ORtg are doing it against worse defense: Boston(12th), Toronto(25th), Dallas(20th)

theSTEREO. said:

Cavs have been middle of the pack thus far for defense. Also, Moz is holding opponents to 33% shooting at the rim, K. Love holding opponents to 40%.

Cavs as a team holding the C's to just 42% shooting overall.

So yeah, it can be better, but to say it cannot be consistently relied on is a bit of an exaggeration.

Click to expand...

I agree... There have been bad patches but overall the defense hasn't been bad and can be much better.

theSTEREO. said:

Cavs are shooting 33.3% from 3 in the playoffs. Which would've been 26th in the league during the regular season. So our threes have not been falling. At all.

And yet we are not dying. As I mentioned above, we still have by far the most efficient offense in the league.

So I do not anticipate us dying by the three. If nothing else, we will scrap by without the three, but dominate with it once they are falling like normal.

Click to expand...

See my post on 3pt shooting.... The only thing that is giving the Cavs problems is guys missing either open(4-6ft) or wide open(6+ ft) 3s. Boston isn't doing anything to keep us from hitting 3s, we're just missing wide open looks. That won't last and we'll revert to the mean. So, I'm in 100% agreeance that we won't die by the 3 and think it's actually encouraging that we've won by 10pts on average while missing shots we should be making.

theSTEREO. said:

Mozgov is our 4th leading scorer. I only recall one or two oops so far.

Love has been horrible from three this series. He's actually been most effective on the block and drawing FT attempts.

Tristan is not asked, nor required to score on this team, so that shouldn't be a worry.

Click to expand...

All three of these guys will score more than they have, especially Love and Mozgov. Again, not really something Boston is doing as much as Mozgov and Love being in foul trouble last game and Love being cold from 3 and missing open looks.

theSTEREO. said:

I agree with this. But it's hardly been as dismal as you are thinking.

Click to expand...

I also agree we're not maximizing our talent but the fact that we're not maximizing the talent and still winning by 10 ppg, haven't trailed in the 2nd half in either game and Boston hasn't even been within 5 in the final 5 minutes is encouraging. Some of this I think might be due to too much time off and guys getting a little out of rhythym. That's why I'd prefer not to have too much time off between series as coming out cold like this gets you double-digit wins against Boston but might cost you a game or two in a different series.

I have some concerns about this team but their ability to score the basketball is not one of them. When the wide open looks start falling, Boston better duck and cover.

I honestly believe we are toying with Boston. I expect game 3 to be energetic in Boston, but come 4th quarter I expect the real bullets come flying. Then huge blowout in game 4. Time to send a message.

All I wanted in game 2 was a better defensive effort. They gave that, I'm all good.

Worrying about the Cavs offense is like worrying about if Emma Watson is still hot, because she had a bad makeup day.

godfather said:

All I wanted in game 2 was a better defensive effort. They gave that, I'm all good.

Worrying about the Cavs offense is like worrying about if Emma Watson is still hot, because she had a bad makeup day.

Click to expand...

What I'm concerned about is shutting down Thomas and his ability to get the ball and score.
Even looking ahead if they face the Bulls, they'll have to shut down Rose and co.

Green Lantern said:

What I'm concerned about is shutting down Thomas and his ability to get the ball and score.
Even looking ahead if they face the Bulls, they'll have to shut down Rose and co.

Click to expand...

Rose will shut himself down.