2019 Browns Off Season/Roster Discussion

col63onel said:

I wonder what these projections would look like if we only included the last 8 games of last year.

Click to expand...

But that's the problem... the Browns had an easier schedule to close last season than they do this season. Sixteen games itself is too small of a sample to make accurate predictions, let alone eight. Adding to all of that is this idea that the young team just underwent a turbulent offseason.

Browns fans should be excited about the most talented roster since the team came back, but there is serious uncertainty about this team, and that's why the analytic models all have the Browns with large standard errors. Everything seems to suggest anywhere between seven and ten wins is within the margin of error for the Browns... think about how crazy the sounds. The models basically say the Browns variance could be one-fifth of an entire season.

jking948 said:

But that's the problem... the Browns had an easier schedule to close last season than they do this season. Sixteen games itself is too small of a sample to make accurate predictions, let alone eight. Adding to all of that is this idea that the young team just underwent a turbulent offseason.

Browns fans should be excited about the most talented roster since the team came back, but there is serious uncertainty about this team, and that's why the analytic models all have the Browns with large standard errors. Everything seems to suggest anywhere between seven and ten wins is within the margin of error for the Browns... think about how crazy the sounds. The models basically say the Browns variance could be one-fifth of an entire season.

Click to expand...

It’s just weird that 7-10 wins is below the median. I have no problem putting the Browns in that range, just surprised that’s 17th or so in the NFL.

And I do that all algorithms should have a “Hue Jackson” correction built in.

col63onel said:

It’s just weird that 7-10 wins is below the median. I have no problem putting the Browns in that range, just surprised that’s 17th or so in the NFL.

And I do that all algorithms should have a “Hue Jackson” correction built in.

Click to expand...

Oh, I agree, don't get me wrong.

All these types of these predictions are risk averse and operate in domains of loss. The Browns are introducing a weird amount of uncertainty. New, first-time head coach, a second year QB, a young defense with a new defensive coordinator, a lot of summer additions, a previous season where they were inconsistent, and an offensive line with two tackles that - even at their best last year - ranked below average and that lost its pro-bowl right guard.

Now, sure, there is a lot the algorithms do not include (Kitchens being a great OC, Hue, Monken's pass-heavy offense, the Jarvis-OBJ relationship, Myles being allowed to use more than two moves while pass rushing, etc.). The problem is that algorithms, even with uncertainty, are trained to predict. So I see why there is such a large variance of win possibilities.

My best guess is 10-6. Even with a poor offensive line, I think the defense will really improve and that the offense will take advantage of market inefficiencies. But I am more risk accepting in my Browns predictions than algorithms, so...

this is still surreal to me... i really want to see Cleveland with the browns making the playoffs I’m 25 and have never seen it

I went in for the home opener, cannot wait. Been awhile since I've been to a Browns game.

Ohio said:

I went in for the home opener, cannot wait. Been awhile since I've been to a Browns game.

Click to expand...

Take some pics and put in the game thread in due time!

glad to have Baker in Cleveland

Just watching on television last year, but weren't all the games sold out after Baker took over?

The stadium is going to be rocking this year.

SuperSurge said:

Just watching on television last year, but weren't all the games sold out after Baker took over?

The stadium is going to be rocking this year.

Click to expand...

There was at least one game that wasn't sold out, since Baker commented on it and told fans he wants to see the stadium full.

“We would love to have more fan support,’’ the rookie quarterback said. “Today was cold, I get it, but having more people, especially at our last home game coming up, we would love to have more people in the stands cheering for us because we feed off of the energy.

Glad we cut ties with him when we did. I can't imagine the backlash we would hear about the Browns having Kareem Hunt AND this guy.

Desmond Harrison is about to be arrested.

So there's that...

AZ_ said:

Desmond Harrison is about to be arrested.

So there's that...

Click to expand...

For assaulting a female no less. That has proven to end up well for the player.

I bet he doesn't play the entire year. Put on the list, followed by an 8 game suspension with no time served seems to be the going price.

I recall several talking heads offering unfounded criticism of the Browns for releasing Harrison for "tardiness" while providing leniency to its star players. Clearly tardiness was the least of his issues and it seems Dorsey may have known that...

Ohio said:

I went in for the home opener, cannot wait. Been awhile since I've been to a Browns game.

Click to expand...

I'm going to be in CLE the Friday/Saturday before the Rams home game. Was going to look into tickets. But fuck that noise.

Will just watch it in the bar somewhere in Cbus and spend 1/5th of the $

Binkster said:

I recall several talking heads offering unfounded criticism of the Browns for releasing Harrison for "tardiness" while providing leniency to its star players. Clearly tardiness was the least of his issues and it seems Dorsey may have known that...

Click to expand...

Be interesting to see exactly when this event occurred and if the Browns FO knew about it.