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Coronavirus - Official Notifications Etc. PM Stannis with Official Updates for Posting

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CleveRocks said:
So I think he is saying that only random sampling would give you an accurate picture of the actual infection scale.. which is true.. we are only testing people who we think are sick and in some cases have already been tested for flu and pneumonia.. we are also only testing people with a personal care physician.. so the results this far can not be expstrapolated into the national population.. this is also true by the way of Italy, France Germany and so on.. really only Korea has done what I think is representative testing to such an extent that they really understand the scale of it..
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While probably mostly true nation wide and true for the drive thru test I have no primary nor insurance and could have got tested today.
 
Rich said:
I e got money ready to buy but...i dont think this a bottom.

Just saw Ford is ready to start mass producing ventilators.
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Ford, along with basically every car manufacturer in the UK, was asked by the UK government if they can produce ventilators. The UK only has 5000 ventilators for 60+ million people. The US has 172000 ventilators that can be put to use for our 327+ million people. Basically the UK would have to make 25,000 ventilators to get to the US level of ventilators per person.

This alone the UK should be in full lock down right now. Italy only has 3000 ventilators. The US military will probably have to fly all the 12000 ventilators in reserve from hotzone to hotzone as this virus peaks. Currently ~5 to 6% of people who get Coronavirus have to be put on a ventilator.
 
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KI4MVP said:
Not quite sure what you're saying, but if you're suggesting we're just catching a larger percent of cases we were missing before, that's really unclear. We don't have enough data to conclude one way or the other.

If ability to test is growing at the exact rate the number of actual cases is growing, then increased ability to test is neutral to case growth rate.

If ability to test is growing faster, then it's inflating the growth rate

If ability to test is growing slower, then it's masking the growth rate.

Increases ability to test is not going to impact the death growth rate (unless we weren't testing people who were severe enough they died and we now are)

We just don't have enough data to say, but the rate of changes in deaths a week from now will be a better indication of what the increase in cases actually means, and in 10 days or so will start to show how much the efforts at isolation are helping.
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I'm saying the strongest correlation to the number of confirmed cases is likely the number of tests available.

The data we have gives us almost no insight into the number of infected people in the general population.

If we wanted to get that data, we'd have to test random samples of people. We aren't doing that because there are more important things--like understanding if someone in critical condition should be treated for COVID-19 or something else.
 
One thing that popped in my head that I haven’t seen discussed.

There’s been a lot of talk that warmer temperatures don’t allow the virus to grow which is why we see such small numbers in warmer climates.

So what happens when the seasons change and the climate gets colder in the Southern Hemisphere? Does that potentially create a second wave in different countries? Hopefully by the time that could become a problem this is a non-issue, but we don’t know at this point.
 
US confirmed over 9K

NYC is fucked. I'll bet they have 10K alone
 
Bob_The_Cat said:
One thing that popped in my head that I haven’t seen discussed.

There’s been a lot of talk that warmer temperatures don’t allow the virus to grow which is why we see such small numbers in warmer climates.

So what happens when the seasons change and the climate gets colder in the Southern Hemisphere? Does that potentially create a second wave in different countries? Hopefully by the time that could become a problem this is a non-issue, but we don’t know at this point.
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Weather is a real question mark. There are countries that are fairly warm right now that are having increases in cases.

It could also create a second wave in the northern hemisphere in the fall after it goes down the southern hemisphere. We can't hope the weather cures this.

Flatten the curve and hope that clinical trial will result in some combos of drugs that are already FDA approved to shorten the duration, severity, and contagious period. If a non FDA approved drug ends up the solution, we have to wait for it to be approved and the manufacturing then has to be setup. We have no clue if the company, even with help, will be able to mass produce the product quickly.

Pair a viable drug combo and a rapid results tests then we might have a solution to go back to normal life. We will then wait for a vaccine for a long term solution where we don't have to run to the doctor every time we get a fever.
 
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Mr. Orange said:
US confirmed over 9K

NYC is fucked. I'll bet they have 10K alone
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Yep, probably more eventually. I like to watch the "cases/million population" column on the Worldometer website. Right now the US is at 28 (28 X 327 = 9,156). Italy is well over 500 (would be 163,500 US) while South Korea, which seems to be the gold standard, and is testing at a really high rate, is at 167 (54,600 US). We're almost certainly going to go over 100,000 nationwide the question is when - how much time can we buy?
 
AllforOne said:
It actually is, but I'm not gonna try to convince you otherwise. What you're talking about is speculating, not investing.



If somebody needs to liquidate stocks for the cash to survive, then they shouldn't be investing in stocks in the first place. One really ought to have at least three months of expenses (or more, if in a single-income household) set aside before putting anything in the market.

I don't want to derail the COVID discussion any further, so if this discussion is going to continue, the finance thread is probably the best place.
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AllforOne said:
If you mean stocks, the reason not to sell is because they're on sale right now. In any other area, if the price on something drops 30%, people think "cool, I'll buy more!" When it happens in the stock market, people panic, sell, and thus lock in their losses. I've been nibbling on this whole ride down, and bought a bigger chunk today.

The long-term fundamentals of the market haven't changed. Sure, Q1/Q2 results will be in the shitter for a lot of companies, but their long-term prospects haven't changed. Unless you absolutely need the money ASAP (in an "I took out a loan with the Bank of Goodfellas and will lose my thumbs if I don't pay it back tomorrow" sense), you'll be kicking yourself someday if you sell now.

Again, John Bogle's advice is the best: "Don't just do something. Stand there!"
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Don’t need it to survive. Fortunate to have that.

Plan to buy a house within next year and don’t have much faith that I won’t be taking significant losses between now and say...October.
 
Bob_The_Cat said:
One thing that popped in my head that I haven’t seen discussed.

There’s been a lot of talk that warmer temperatures don’t allow the virus to grow which is why we see such small numbers in warmer climates.

So what happens when the seasons change and the climate gets colder in the Southern Hemisphere? Does that potentially create a second wave in different countries? Hopefully by the time that could become a problem this is a non-issue, but we don’t know at this point.
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Right now there is no proof of this bastard behaving like other viral infections. Our epidemiologists are saying it will go trough population until it reaches necessary immunity the next step will necessarily be vaccination. Especially risk groups. Until high safety levels in countries that were hits first are lowered and infections don't jump up again (China is still in lockdown, we are starting to fully lock it down too (we have Italy cross border, but we are keeping it in check for now)) we won’t even know how it behaves.
No panic needed just don’t spread it too fast so we in hospitals survive the influx.

I am more worried about economic aftermath .... Despite working trough entire pandemic surely public healthcare system will be hit with government payment reductions etc. I just hope our small country doesn’t crash completely....
 
The Oi said:
Don’t need it to survive. Fortunate to have that.

Plan to buy a house within next year and don’t have much faith that I won’t be taking significant losses between now and say...October.
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Should be a buyers market by next year....
 
Photon said:
Right now there is no proof of this bastard behaving like other viral infections. Our epidemiologists are saying it will go trough population until it reaches necessary immunity the next step will necessarily be vaccination. Especially risk groups. Until high safety levels in countries that were hits first are lowered and infections don't jump up again (China is still in lockdown, we are starting to fully lock it down too (we have Italy cross border, but we are keeping it in check for now)) we won’t even know how it behaves.
No panic needed just don’t spread it too fast so we in hospitals survive the influx.

I am more worried about economic aftermath .... Despite working trough entire pandemic surely public healthcare system will be hit with government payment reductions etc. I just hope our small country doesn’t crash completely....
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Sorry if this is common knowledge, where are you posting from?
Stay healthy!
 
smalls1129 said:
While probably mostly true nation wide and true for the drive thru test I have no primary nor insurance and could have got tested today.
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which state ? My understanding is that Ohio requires a script from your PCP, and that the protocol is not to write a script for the test unless you have first been tested (negative) for Flu and pneumonia or have been exposed to a person with confirmed COVID.
 
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