This just is not true. That is not how variance works. Variance is the range of possible outcomes. For example, one of the possible outcomes is that the lack of installation time due to COVID-19 results in Stefanski not being able to install his wide-zone scheme or that Hubbard has to start at left tackle.
That's a possible variance, but no one can calculate the likelihood. What I DO know is that in 2019 our scheme was so ridiculously inefficient and implemented that we took a team talented enough to win the superbowl and only won 6 games. Week by week we would throw away our gameplans.
I'm not pretending nothing can go wrong, I'm comparing it to a year when EVERYTHING not named Chubb went wrong. Baker, OBJ, o-line, d-line, CBs, coaching... it all went wrong, and we finished 6-10.
Another degree of variance is that the left tackle we draft is not ready to start on day one. This is actually fairly likely, as statistically speaking, left tackle rookies are generally net negative rookies or not ready to start whatsoever.
PFF looks to investigate whether the shape of the learning curve from college to the NFL changes when looking at different positions or different draft positions.
www.pff.com
We have no idea if the left tackle we draft will start. We have no idea if we will sign Peters or another LT that can start. We have no idea if we'll make a trade. What we DO know is that our options leave very little room for the LT we have to be as bad as G-Rob. That's what we're comparing here. We're not looking at the variances that can go wrong. That's a deep rabbit hole that could turn out in a myriad of ways - not only for the Browns but for every team in the NFL.
What we're using as a baseline is the clusterfuck that was last year. How much worse can get it? Think about that - besides Chubb and Priefer's ST (which was decent), how much worse can it get?
What if Stefanski cannot fix Baker?
Baker doesn't need 'fixing'. He's not broken at all - he was severely misutilized. He has room to improve for sure, but I don't think it gets worse for him. We saw the bottom for him.
I know fans want to believe in-house variance = good; but that is not what variance means or how it works. Variance is the range of outcomes of a variable from its mean. I.E., Stefanski could be substantially better than Freddie, and the team finish with the exact same record. They may be better or worse, too. We just do not know and new coaches bring in a ton of variance, especially young ones.
I think in a vacuum you are generally right, but any Browns fan can watch last season and see that our 6 wins were just on talent alone. Just about everything that could've gone badly actually went badly.
Hooper is a better fit for an outside-zone scheme, sure, but it is not clear how much of a value improvement over Njoku he actually is. As I stated above, it is unclear that our starting left tackle will be better than Greg Robinson, that is an assumption you are making.
Again, I'm not guaranteeing anything. We could snag Travis Kelce or George Kittle and your argument about variance would still hold. That's kind of a funky way to look at it. Same with G-Rob (who was awful btw) - we could get the best LT from last year and your argument about variance would still hold.
That's just a weird way to look at it, particularly as a counter-argument against someone (me) who made no guarantees. I only said it's
likely the LT we acquire is better than G-Rob. Obviously we have the entire offseason to see if we improve there but the front office is doing everything right so far.
I think you're pushing statistics without context. Variance is real, but how do you measure the likelihood of variance to swing one way or the other? Roll a die 10 times. The Browns went 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1. That's how I see last year - practically everything went wrong. Repeat the process and sure, maybe the 5 becomes a 3 but it's unlikely you'll get as many 1's.
If the team goes 6-10 when everything goes badly, does that mean they can get worse if they improve in almost every foreseeable area? Absolutely. We could go 4-12 next year. However, when we break down what went wrong last year (primarily coaching, which had a domino effect on every part of the offense), the likelihood it all happens that way again seems low to me.
No guarantees, but I don't see the coaching being as bad as it was with Freddie.