Tito says Frankie will probably hit 3rd this year and that the four infielders will hit 1-4. Speculation is Hernandez leads off.
I'm not sure that's a great idea. Last year his overall OBP was .333. As a leadoff hitter it was .322 and when he led off an inning his OBP was .317. My preference would be Santana and his .397 OBP last year. Carlos takes a lot of pitches and would allow the next hitters to get a look at what the pitcher is throwing. He would be on base a lot with Lindor, Hosey and Reyes coming up. With Santana on first base and a RHP on the hill it opens up a hole on the right side for Hosey and Lindor. The only downside is that Carlos is the slowest base runner on the team.
Hernandez, who is 30 years old, seems to be a player in decline. Looking at his numbers for 2017, 2018, and 2019, courtesy of Fangraphs, we see this:
Offensvie rating: 9.0, -0.6, -5.5
On-base percentage: .373, .356, .333
wRC+: 111, 99, 92
BB%: 10.6, 13.4, 6.7 (His walk percentage declined by 50% last year)
Speed: 6.0, 5.0, 4.5 (He's slowing down. His stolen bases dropped from 19 to 9 last year)
wOBA: .346, .320, .315
Infield fly ball percentage: 3.1, 4.8, 12.9 (His pop-ups have more than quadrupled over the last two years)
Hard hit%: 22.1, 24.0, 32.9 (This doesn't fit. He's hitting more balls hard but it isn't reflected in his production)
Fastball pitch values: 19.1, 13.1 -9.3 (His ability to hit a fastball has declined dramatically the last two years. Is his bat slowing down? However, his production against curves and sliders is up. Is he sitting on breakng balls, figuring he can't get around on the fastball anymore?)
Swing percentage outside the zone: 21.6, 20.3, 29.8 (He definitely chased a lot last year. His chase percentage was up nearly 50%. What's up with that)
Tito made a reference to Cesar's 2019 season, calling it "a bit of an aberration". I wonder if he knows something. Clearly Hernandez was pressing last year. He chased a lot more bad pitches and his infield pop-up rate skyrocketed. He's not as fast as he was and he can no longer punish a fastball. In terms of overall offensive rating and wRC+, he's a below average offensive player. His on-base percentages are trending down.
Do we really want a below average offensive player who doesn't run particularly well or get on base that well leading off? Do we want Hernandez coming to the plate more than Hosey, Lindor, Santana, and Reyes? I'm also concerned about his three-year trend line. What if this year follows the trend?
If Hernandez can get back to being patient at the plate, reduce his bad swings, and stop trying to hit home runs he may be able to get back to the player he was in 2017 when his on-base percentage was .373. In that case he'll be more than fine as a leadoff hitter. With Hosey, Frankie, Reyes, both Santanas, Berto, and Mercado in the lineup we don't need Hernandez to hit home runs. The last two years he hit 15 and 14 after never hitting more than 6 in a season. All those additional infield pop-ups suggest to me that he may have tried to change his launch angle to become a home run hitter as he moves into his 30's and is losing a step. Maybe if he gets back to being a patient hitter who works the count, has a walk rate of 10-13%, and just tries to get on base he'll be fine.
Edit: Another theory is that by trying to drive the ball more he lengthened his swing which explains why his ability to hit fastballs has declined. Maybe it's not his bat speed that's declining, maybe he just joined the launch angle revolution and is trying to drive the ball in the air. It's not working. His ground ball percentage is up, his fly ball percentage is down, and his pop-up percentage is through the roof.
