The 2020 Cleveland Indians

[Gson]

Moss ended up going five...an impressive outing.

Going 5.. or.. was in the game for 5?..

How was his command?..

How was the velo & command on his FB?..

Did that change keep RHH's wary?

Does his slider show the same two plane shape as it did toward the end of last season?

Dontcha wish you could actually see the game?.. snippets?.. Lights, Action, camera's on?

 

[TFIR]

You guys see Lindor's somersault homer celebration?

Frankie's Fun: Lindor caps HR with somersault

CLEVELAND -- Let the kids play, they say? No one has to tell Francisco Lindor twice. In the Tribe’s intrasquad scrimmage on Friday night, Lindor took starter Mike Clevinger deep into the right-field seats. Just like a little kid stomps on first base when he gets down the line, Lindor

www.mlb.com

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

@Wham with the Right Hand

I'd encourage you to look at his xBA% on the website you cited.

xBA% determines how likely a batted ball is to become a hit based on similarly hit balls in the past. It accounts for launch angle, exit velocity, and as of Jan 2019, it accounts for a player's sprint speed on weakly hit grounders.

I like xwOBA better because it also factors in whether the hit is a single, double, triple, etc whereas xBA is just the expected batting average and doesn't value an XBH hit more than a single.

Statcast Expected wOBA, xBA, xSLG

Baseball Savant

baseballsavant.mlb.com

"By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.

Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an expected batting average, every batted ball is given a single, double, triple and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls....

xwOBA is more indicative of a player's skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation."

So let's look at the Indian's xwOBA's for last year. I like looking at percentiles instead of raw numbers because it shows where players rank against the rest of the league. The top three players in xwOBA last year were Belinger (100th percentile), Trout (100), and Yelich (99).

Here's where the Indians ranked:

Santana 87th percentile
Reyes 78
Hernandez 69 (with the Phillies)
Hosey 61
Lindor 47
Perez 41
Kipnis 33
Mercado 24
Bauers 9

The rest (Naquin, Luplow, Allen) did not get enough at-bats to qualify for a ranking.

My first impression is that Cesar Hernandez had a better year at the plate than anybody on the Indians except Reyes and Santana. Wow, I didn’t expect that. Looking at the difference between his ranking (69) and Kipnis (33) I’d say we just got a lot better offensively at second base.

My second impression is that Jose Ramirez had a pretty bad year if he was only in the 61st percentile. Looking at 2018 and 2017, Hosey’s ranking was 87 and 77, respectively. That huge slump he had the first three months had a big impact. He should bounce back this season, short as it is.

My third impression is that 9 of 10 batters did better than Jake Bauers. He was by far the worst hitter on the team. Trading Yandy Diaz for him is looking like a big mistake. Yandy ranked in the 77th percentile last year.

I was surprised Mercado was only in the 24th percentile. Tito had him hitting second, which is where you’re supposed to put your best hitter according to analytics. Mike Trout hits second for the Angels.

Reportedly Hernandez will hit high in the order this year, so we could see him hitting second and Oscar getting dropped to the bottom third of the order.

Finally, I was shocked to see Lindor only in the 47th percentile, meaning he was a slightly below average hitter last year. I have some thoughts on that but will save them for another post since this one already has a lot to digest.

The Indians should be a much better offensive team this year if we give all of Kipnis' at-bats to Hernandez (we will), Hosey gets back to his 2017-18 form (he should), and Lindor bounces back from the worst season since his rookie year in terms of xwOBA. Also, giving Bauers' 372 at-bats (WTF Tito???) to Naquin, Luplow, and/or Domingo Santana (69th percentile last year) will help immensely, along with getting Mercado out of the #2 spot in the order. We did lose Puig's half-season, but he was only in the 53rd percentile so no biggie.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

So now to discuss Lindor and his xwOBA in the 47th percentile last year, putting him in the lower end of average category. In 2018 Frankie ranked in the 91st percentile in xwOBA, and in 2017 he was in the 84th percentile. Clearly, he had a horrible season at the plate last year; well off his established norm near the top of the league.

In terms of WAR, he dropped from 7.9 to 4.7. If you prefer FanGraphs numbers, he dropped from 7.6 to 4.4, which was his lowest WAR in four years.

What the heck happened? His OPS dropped only slightly, from .871 in 2018 to .854. His wRC+ dropped from 130 to 114. By this measure he was 14% above average. Apparently his actual results were better than his expected results as measured by his xwOBA.

One thing I noticed is that Frankie’s OPS in September was only .705 on a batting average of .218. In July and August his OPS was well over .900 both months, suggesting he ran out of gas. On the rare days where Tito gave Frankie a day off in the field and let him DH, Frankie went 10-for-22 with an OPS of 1.342. I’d suggest letting him DH more frequently if he’s on the team in 2021. Small sample to be sure, but he hit like a MF’er when they gave him a day off his feet and it will keep him fresher in September.

However, he was a different hitter last year from 2018. His walk rate dropped from 9.4% to 7.0%. His percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone rose 3.2%. His ground ball percentage increased by almost 5%. His infield fly ball percentage increased 3.1%. That’s 8% more ground balls and pop-ups than the year before. His fly ball percentage, where most damage is done, dropped 3%. His line drive percentage was down nearly 2%.

Lindor’s pull percentage was up 4.2% over 2018. The numbers are painting a picture of a batter who chased more bad pitches, walked less, pulled the ball more, and put more balls on the ground and in the air over the infield than in previous years. His xwOBA plummeted from the 91st percentile to the 47th.

He was at his worst in the most important at-bats, hitting .202 with RISP and an unbelievable .167 with RISP and two out. As a result his RBI’s dropped from 92 to 74. My strongest memories of Frankie last year were solo home runs and striking out chasing breaking balls in the dirt with men on base.

His fielding also tanked. His UZR/150 dropped from 13.4 to 7.4, a decrease of 45%. I don’t know what was going on there. Lindor was slower, for one thing. His speed ranked in the 82nd percentile in 2018 but was down to 65th last year. His base running grade also decreased.

FanGraphs gave him an offensive/base running rating of 28.2 in 2018, which fell off the table to 9.9 last year. Both FanGraphs and Statcast agree that his offensive game declined drastically last year. Defensively FanGraphs had him dropping from 21.1 to 12.1, obviously linked to his decline in range. For some reason he was slower on the bases and less rangy in the field last year. I wonder if the ankle injury suffered just before spring training that caused him to miss the first couple weeks of the season affected him the entire year.

As for the hitting part of it, he was fine in the middle and sucked at the beginning and end. In 37 at-bats in April he hit .243, probably rusty having missed spring training. In September he hit .218/.705. In the four months starting in May his OPS’s were .864, .866, .938, and .928.

So unlike last year he should be healthy and ready to go when the season starts and he won’t run out of gas in September. He still needs to stop chasing breaking balls out of the zone and be more patient with men on base. He needs to hit more line drives and reduce the ground balls and pop-ups. He needs to be more willing to take a walk and not get over-aggressive with men on base.

He has better teammates this year and doesn’t have to make up for lack of offense by guys like Martin, CarGo, Kipnis, and Bauers along with an extended slump by Hosey. I think he tried to carry the team a bit last year, especially in the first half when he and Santana were the only reliable bats. I’m also guessing he was trying to hit 40 home runs after hitting 38 the year before, which contributed to the increase in pulled balls, pop-ups, and swings outside the zone.

But with the heightened importance of every game this year I wonder if he’ll be able to find the patience to let the game come to him.

 

[TFIR]

So now to discuss Lindor and his xwOBA in the 47th percentile last year, putting him in the lower end of average category. In 2018 Frankie ranked in the 91st percentile in xwOBA, and in 2017 he was in the 84th percentile. Clearly, he had a horrible season at the plate last year; well off his established norm near the top of the league.

In terms of WAR, he dropped from 7.9 to 4.7. If you prefer FanGraphs numbers, he dropped from 7.6 to 4.4, which was his lowest WAR in four years.

What the heck happened? His OPS dropped only slightly, from .871 in 2018 to .854. His wRC+ dropped from 130 to 114. By this measure he was 14% above average. Apparently his actual results were better than his expected results as measured by his xwOBA.

One thing I noticed is that Frankie’s OPS in September was only .705 on a batting average of .218. In July and August his OPS was well over .900 both months, suggesting he ran out of gas. On the rare days where Tito gave Frankie a day off in the field and let him DH, Frankie went 10-for-22 with an OPS of 1.342. I’d suggest letting him DH more frequently if he’s on the team in 2021. Small sample to be sure, but he hit like a MF’er when they gave him a day off his feet and it will keep him fresher in September.

However, he was a different hitter last year from 2018. His walk rate dropped from 9.4% to 7.0%. His percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone rose 3.2%. His ground ball percentage increased by almost 5%. His infield fly ball percentage increased 3.1%. That’s 8% more ground balls and pop-ups than the year before. His fly ball percentage, where most damage is done, dropped 3%. His line drive percentage was down nearly 2%.

Lindor’s pull percentage was up 4.2% over 2018. The numbers are painting a picture of a batter who chased more bad pitches, walked less, pulled the ball more, and put more balls on the ground and in the air over the infield than in previous years. His xwOBA plummeted from the 91st percentile to the 47th.

He was at his worst in the most important at-bats, hitting .202 with RISP and an unbelievable .167 with RISP and two out. As a result his RBI’s dropped from 92 to 74. My strongest memories of Frankie last year were solo home runs and striking out chasing breaking balls in the dirt with men on base.

His fielding also tanked. His UZR/150 dropped from 13.4 to 7.4, a decrease of 45%. I don’t know what was going on there. Lindor was slower, for one thing. His speed ranked in the 82nd percentile in 2018 but was down to 65th last year. His base running grade also decreased.

FanGraphs gave him an offensive/base running rating of 28.2 in 2018, which fell off the table to 9.9 last year. Both FanGraphs and Statcast agree that his offensive game declined drastically last year. Defensively FanGraphs had him dropping from 21.1 to 12.1, obviously linked to his decline in range. For some reason he was slower on the bases and less rangy in the field last year. I wonder if the ankle injury suffered just before spring training that caused him to miss the first couple weeks of the season affected him the entire year.

As for the hitting part of it, he was fine in the middle and sucked at the beginning and end. In 37 at-bats in April he hit .243, probably rusty having missed spring training. In September he hit .218/.705. In the four months starting in May his OPS’s were .864, .866, .938, and .928.

So unlike last year he should be healthy and ready to go when the season starts and he won’t run out of gas in September. He still needs to stop chasing breaking balls out of the zone and be more patient with men on base. He needs to hit more line drives and reduce the ground balls and pop-ups. He needs to be more willing to take a walk and not get over-aggressive with men on base.

He has better teammates this year and doesn’t have to make up for lack of offense by guys like Martin, CarGo, Kipnis, and Bauers along with an extended slump by Hosey. I think he tried to carry the team a bit last year, especially in the first half when he and Santana were the only reliable bats. I’m also guessing he was trying to hit 40 home runs after hitting 38 the year before, which contributed to the increase in pulled balls, pop-ups, and swings outside the zone.

But with the heightened importance of every game this year I wonder if he’ll be able to find the patience to let the game come to him.

Great post! As for April for Lindor, he was definitely behind the 8 ball with his spring injury.

 

[Derek]

I like xwOBA better because it also factors in whether the hit is a single, double, triple, etc whereas xBA is just the expected batting average and doesn't value an XBH hit more than a single.

Statcast Expected wOBA, xBA, xSLG

Baseball Savant

baseballsavant.mlb.com

"By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.

Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.

In the same way that each batted ball is assigned an expected batting average, every batted ball is given a single, double, triple and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls....

xwOBA is more indicative of a player's skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation."

So let's look at the Indian's xwOBA's for last year. I like looking at percentiles instead of raw numbers because it shows where players rank against the rest of the league. The top three players in xwOBA last year were Belinger (100th percentile), Trout (100), and Yelich (99).

Here's where the Indians ranked:

Santana 87th percentile
Reyes 78
Hernandez 69 (with the Phillies)
Hosey 61
Lindor 47
Perez 41
Kipnis 33
Mercado 24
Bauers 9

The rest (Naquin, Luplow, Allen) did not get enough at-bats to qualify for a ranking.

My first impression is that Cesar Hernandez had a better year at the plate than anybody on the Indians except Reyes and Santana. Wow, I didn’t expect that. Looking at the difference between his ranking (69) and Kipnis (33) I’d say we just got a lot better offensively at second base.

My second impression is that Jose Ramirez had a pretty bad year if he was only in the 61st percentile. Looking at 2018 and 2017, Hosey’s ranking was 87 and 77, respectively. That huge slump he had the first three months had a big impact. He should bounce back this season, short as it is.

My third impression is that 9 of 10 batters did better than Jake Bauers. He was by far the worst hitter on the team. Trading Yandy Diaz for him is looking like a big mistake. Yandy ranked in the 77th percentile last year.

I was surprised Mercado was only in the 24th percentile. Tito had him hitting second, which is where you’re supposed to put your best hitter according to analytics. Mike Trout hits second for the Angels.

Reportedly Hernandez will hit high in the order this year, so we could see him hitting second and Oscar getting dropped to the bottom third of the order.

Finally, I was shocked to see Lindor only in the 47th percentile, meaning he was a slightly below average hitter last year. I have some thoughts on that but will save them for another post since this one already has a lot to digest.

The Indians should be a much better offensive team this year if we give all of Kipnis' at-bats to Hernandez (we will), Hosey gets back to his 2017-18 form (he should), and Lindor bounces back from the worst season since his rookie year in terms of xwOBA. Also, giving Bauers' 372 at-bats (WTF Tito???) to Naquin, Luplow, and/or Domingo Santana (69th percentile last year) will help immensely, along with getting Mercado out of the #2 spot in the order. We did lose Puig's half-season, but he was only in the 53rd percentile so no biggie.

I meant to use xBA% in the context of whether or not Mercado was unlucky.

Obviously there are more encompassing statistics to give you a better idea about a hitter’s abilities.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yu Chang - are you kidding me? Five home runs in the last week; two in live batting practice and three in intrasquad games. Four off right-handed pitchers, including two off Carrasco. Four were against members of the starting rotation. He's not hitting them on the back fields against AA guys. One shot almost hit the scoreboard. That's a lot of power for a shortstop.

What surprised me is Statcast measured his baserunning sprint speed last year at 28.4 mph - third highest on the team behind Mercado and Allen. I had no idea he was that fast. That figure puts him in the 83rd percentile among major league players.

Power and speed at the shortstop position. I like it. After his last two seasons I had written him off but now I'm willing to take another look.

 

[Derek]

I was all-aboard giving Chang a chance to win a starting spot this year prior to the Hernandez signing (which I like).

Maybe he can win that utility role and slide into the spot next year.

 

[CATS44]

I take it with a huge grain of salt any measurement that indicates that Hernandez...an acquisition I like...has ever been a better offensive force than Lindor, JRam, or Santana.

 

[CATS44]

IMO there are lots of analyses out there that are solely meant to tell us not to believe what we see. It's not that they dont have some measure of value, just that the value is way over blown.

 

[sportscoach]

Yu Chang - are you kidding me? Five home runs in the last week; two in live batting practice and three in intrasquad games. Four off right-handed pitchers, including two off Carrasco. Four were against members of the starting rotation. He's not hitting them on the back fields against AA guys. One shot almost hit the scoreboard. That's a lot of power for a shortstop.

What surprised me is Statcast measured his baserunning sprint speed last year at 28.4 mph - third highest on the team behind Mercado and Allen. I had no idea he was that fast. That figure puts him in the 83rd percentile among major league players.

Power and speed at the shortstop position. I like it. After his last two seasons I had written him off but now I'm willing to take another look.

Well with this year's break even/loss of revenue possibility, they likely will make cuts somewhere and that's probably Hernandez at 2B and its hard to rule out the possibility of trading Lindor next season as well. So we should have at least one position open in the INF by then and T. Freeman and Jones loss of season, I feel makes their debut towards the middle and not spring training in 21. On paper this year is his chance to prove something and next season is his chance to legitimately get a spot.

 

[MadThinker88]

It is also possible that Chang (aka YCC) is improving his stock & value in the eyes/ minds across the game as well. Its better to be performing than to not.

As everyone deals with different dynamics for the 2020 season, YCC might be a valuable trade chip for the CLE FO during this summer to get a needed addition for a push this year & help for 2021 as well.

 

[macbdog]

It is also possible that Chang (aka YCC) is improving his stock & value in the eyes/ minds across the game as well. Its better to be performing than to not.

As everyone deals with different dynamics for the 2020 season, YCC might be a valuable trade chip for the CLE FO during this summer to get a needed addition for a push this year & help for 2021 as well.

I doubt he's gaining much trade value but he is making a case to at least get an extended shot (at least as extended as they can be this year). With no minor league season to go rake in, I just don't see some summer camp ABs really altering other teams scouting reports on him. I'd take his 'potential' here in a trial over whatever small trade value he has.

 

[Derek]

@AZ_

 

[Derek]

Seriously @AZ_... A lot of names have changed since you been around