What do people think about whether the Heat have a real shot in the Finals?
I've been surprised at statistical models like fivethirtyeight.com giving the Heat a 73% (!) chance to win (
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo) and the Ringer model giving them a not-bad 39% chance to win (
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/...a-restart-odds-playoffs-lakers-clippers-bucks).
I think statistical predictions are mostly junk, but still.
Bottom line is that AD+Lebron are significantly superior to Adebayo+Butler as a top two. Beyond that, yes, the Heat might be deeper or more talented but the gap at the top of the lineup seems too big to overcome. Also, the Lakers seem to have enough big men to smother Adebayo effectively, with such a good defensive coach in Vogel. They aren't going to have to roll a Grant Williams out there. It's hard for me to see the Heat taking four out of seven here. Of course I thought that the Bucks were going to beat them too.
Iguodala is an interesting X factor here. The Celtics series shows he still has it. Yes old but he's gotten a lot of rest this season. Specialist Lebron defender LOL.