And I think what most of us are saying is that 400 AB isn't nearly enough time to make that kind of statement. Especially since he's had just 100 AB here in Cleveland.
To me, Naylor looks like a promising young hitter with limited exposure to MLB pitching. We'll see what he does over his next thousand AB.
I agree. Naylor's maximum exit velocity this year puts him in the 97th percentile. Almost nobody hits the ball harder when they square it up. This kid is really strong. If he ever learns to hit the ball in the air - look out.
His problem is he's pressing. His walk rate has dropped from 9% as a rookie in 2019 to 4% in the early going this year. His chase percentage has increased from 34% to 41%. He's trying too hard and chasing too many bad pitches. He's averaging only 3.2 pitches per at-bat compared to 4.1 in 2019.
HIs total swing percentage has increased from 44% to 54% from his rookie year. He's just way too aggressive, hacking at too many balls and marginal strikes.
His career contact percentage on pitches in the strike zone is 89%. He has very good bat-to-ball skills when he swings at strikes. He rarely misses.
Also, his launch angle has increased from an extremely low 4.5% in 2019 to 11.2% this year and his opposite field percentage has increased from 24% to 40% over the same time frame. His fly ball percentage is up from 30% to 35%. He used to pull the ball a lot more and hit it on the ground more. It looks like he's trying to respond to the shift and use the whole field as well as get the ball in the air. He's getting there.
He's using more of the field and hitting more balls in the air. But his hard hit percentage has dropped from 42% to 32%, probably because he's chasing pitches out of the zone and hitting them weakly.
The guy has 70 power according to FanGraphs. He makes contact and uses the whole field. He's putting more balls in the air which will allow his power to play up. He just needs to relax at the plate and be more selective. I think he's trying too hard and swinging at too may bad pitches; the numbers clearly show it.
He's hitting .303 with the bases empty, .133 with runners on, .091 with RISP, and he's 0-for-3 with RISP and two out. He's clearly pressing with runners on base, just like Lindor last year. In the 10-3 loss to the Reds he came up with the bases loaded and two outs. He got jammed up and in on the second or third pitch IIRC and flied out to short center field. His other three at-bats were hits.
He's a 23-year-old WIP but if he continues to use the whole field and increase his launch angle while forcing himself to be patient and more selective he could be a very productive hitter. Whether he can curb his aggressiveness remains to be seen.
