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2021 RCF Mock Draft: Discussion, Trades and Miscellany

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Randolphkeys said:
PFF is either making stuff up or he ran a 4.50.

www.pff.com

2021 NFL Draft Comps: North Carolina RB Michael Carter is the discount Clyde Edwards-Helaire | NFL Draft | PFF

With the 2021 NFL Draft just over a month away, PFF's Kevin Cole looks at North Carolina RB Michael Carter, using Carter's statistics to compare him to past prospects and pick out the most similar comps.
www.pff.com www.pff.com

I'll still take the value.
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I believe the 4.54 is his adjusted pro day time, where all the scouts who clocked him get together and come up with a consensus time. I use Player Profiler for all my athletic measurables for skill position guys and they have him as a 4.59, which is his 4.54 time plus the .05 added to compensate for pro day inaccuracy. The combine uses special technology to determine exactly when a player starts moving forward and adjusts their time accordingly. On average, this is about five hundredths of a second, hence the 4.59.

Like I said, no complaints about the value. I wouldn't want him on day two, but he's a fine satellite back to target on day three.
 
Jack Brickman said:
I believe the 4.54 is his adjusted pro day time, where all the scouts who clocked him get together and come up with a consensus time. I use Player Profiler for all my athletic measurables for skill position guys and they have him as a 4.59, which is his 4.54 time plus the .05 added to compensate for pro day inaccuracy. The combine uses special technology to determine exactly when a player starts moving forward and adjusts their time accordingly. On average, this is about five hundredths of a second, hence the 4.59.

Like I said, no complaints about the value. I wouldn't want him on day two, but he's a fine satellite back to target on day three.
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I'm training for a road race this summer after drinking through the pandemic.

Please don't time me. I'd quit by the end of the first week.
 
Randolphkeys said:
I'm training for a road race this summer after drinking through the pandemic.

Please don't time me. I'd quit by the end of the first week.
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As long as you're not potentially being drafted to one of my dynasty teams, your forty time is irrelevant. :chuckle:
 
Jack Brickman said:
As long as you're not potentially being drafted to one of my dynasty teams, your forty time is irrelevant. :chuckle:
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I've just never heard of this random practice of adding .05 to every time. That's why I gave you the extensive athletic testing article from PFF that has him at 4.53 with all the other athletic testing numbers. That practice seems unique to the website you read, nobody else is doing it... except dick measuring. Everybody rounds up with that stat.

@sportscoach focus, dude. Make the pick...
 
Randolphkeys said:
I've just never heard of this random practice of adding .05 to every time. That's why I gave you the extensive athletic testing article from PFF that has him at 4.53 with all the other athletic testing numbers. That practice seems unique to the website you read, nobody else is doing it... except dick measuring. Everybody rounds up with that stat.

@sportscoach focus, dude. Make the pick...
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SQUIRRELLLL!!!!!! football-squirrel-ftr_13c6ck03yuw2t1dvxojilpqi46.jpg
 
Randolphkeys said:
I've just never heard of this random practice of adding .05 to every time. That's why I gave you the extensive athletic testing article from PFF that has him at 4.53 with all the other athletic testing numbers. That practice seems unique to the website you read, nobody else is doing it... except dick measuring. Everybody rounds up with that stat.

@sportscoach focus, dude. Make the pick...
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Yes, it is unique to Player Profiler as far as I know. I highly recommend giving a listen to the Rotounderworld podcasts, particularly their Sonic Truth Dynasty podcast and the Mind of Mansion podcast, which are the two most focused on fantasy football. They've discussed at length why they do this in various podcasts this year. They did extensive research from past years and found that, on average, pro day times are .05 seconds faster than Combine times.

Usually, this isn't an issue, because in past years prospects would do both, and the Combine time would be the one counted by Player Profiler. As they explain on their podcast, the Combine uses technology to adjust forty times to begin the second a player begins to move, which is often not discernible by the human eye for about .05 seconds. This year, it has obviously become an issue with the lack of a Combine.

And while you may understandably think this isn't a big deal, because it's .05 fucking seconds, it's really more about making sure that you get numbers consistent with past years. If all past prospects are judged largely by their Combine times, you don't want to fuck the entire database up by entering all the 2020 pro day times that are, however slightly, inaccurate.

Regardless, I trust their methods. They're obviously not always right, because no one is, and there's a human factor at play that all the analytics in the world can't compensate for (numbers can't take into account work ethic, coaching quality, or off the field issues, for example), but in my experience they're right far more than they're wrong.
 
Jack Brickman said:
Yes, it is unique to Player Profiler as far as I know. I highly recommend giving a listen to the Rotounderworld podcasts, particularly their Sonic Truth Dynasty podcast and the Mind of Mansion podcast, which are the two most focused on fantasy football. They've discussed at length why they do this in various podcasts this year. They did extensive research from past years and found that, on average, pro day times are .05 seconds faster than Combine times.

Usually, this isn't an issue, because in past years prospects would do both, and the Combine time would be the one counted by Player Profiler. As they explain on their podcast, the Combine uses technology to adjust forty times to begin the second a player begins to move, which is often not discernible by the human eye for about .05 seconds. This year, it has obviously become an issue with the lack of a Combine.

And while you may understandably think this isn't a big deal, because it's .05 fucking seconds, it's really more about making sure that you get numbers consistent with past years. If all past prospects are judged largely by their Combine times, you don't want to fuck the entire database up by entering all the 2020 pro day times that are, however slightly, inaccurate.

Regardless, I trust their methods. They're obviously not always right, because no one is, and there's a human factor at play that all the analytics in the world can't compensate for (numbers can't take into account work ethic, coaching quality, or off the field issues, for example), but in my experience they're right far more than they're wrong.
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They have reasons and context for what they do.

I can easily argue against it: The athletes in the past had two chances to impress with their 40 time, but now they only have one. To assume the missing data is destined to be exactly .05 slower might be true more than it isn't, but it's still a theoretical data point rather than an actual data point.

Secondly, think about intent and result implications. This podcast is - as you claim - trying to create an apples to apples comparison.

What actually happened in the discussion here? Times from other websites measure one universal way, but you used the outlier. Despite the intention of the source you cited, you ended up creating the apples to oranges comparison of one prospect to another.

So that is why I had no problem calling the measurement out. If your claim is built on Carter running a 4.59 40 yard dash - which never actually happened - it isn't used properly.
 
Randolphkeys said:
They have reasons and context for what they do.

I can easily argue against it: The athletes in the past had two chances to impress with their 40 time, but now they only have one. To assume the missing data is destined to be exactly .05 slower might be true more than it isn't, but it's still a theoretical data point rather than an actual data point.

Secondly, think about intent and result implications. This podcast is - as you claim - trying to create an apples to apples comparison.

What actually happened in the discussion here? Times from other websites measure one universal way, but you used the outlier. Despite the intention of the source you cited, you ended up creating the apples to oranges comparison of one prospect to another.

So that is why I had no problem calling the measurement out. If your claim is built on Carter running a 4.59 40 yard dash - which never actually happened - it isn't used properly.
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They have years of players who ran at both the Combine and at pro days. Of those players, on average the pro day times are .05 seconds faster.

No one is claiming that every pro day time will be exactly .05 seconds faster. It's an average. And there's a reason for that. It's because, as I mentioned, the Combine utilizes technology to adjust the forty time to begin right as the player's forward momentum starts. Pro day times are by hand and averaged out among scouts. It's not that guys had two chances and just magically were all faster at their pro days.

But if you apply it to one player, you have to apply it to all players. There's really no other way to adequately do it.

So sure, maybe it's inaccurate in the case of Michael Carter, but probably not. The goal is not to diminish prospects here but to accurately rank them in historical context, and that's impossible to do if you just take pro day times from 2020 as gospel when, again, those times are historically faster than Combine times.
 
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Jack Brickman said:
They have years of players who ran at both the Combine and at pro days. Of those players, on average the pro day times are .05 seconds faster.

No one is claiming that every pro day time will be exactly .05 seconds faster. It's an average. And there's a reason for that. It's because, as I mentioned, the Combine utilizes technology to adjust the forty time to begin right as the player's forward momentum starts. Pro day times are by hand and averaged out among scouts. It's not that guys had two chances and just magically were all faster at their pro days.

But if you apply it to one player, you have to apply it to all players. There's really no other way to adequately do it.

So sure, maybe it's inaccurate in the case of Michael Carter, but probably not. The goal is not to diminish prospects here but to accurately rank them in historical context, and that's impossible to do if you just take pro day times from 2020 as gospel when, again, those times are historically faster than Combine times.
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Yeah, I acknowledged that and moved on to my point. What do you have to say about the context of this thread? Nobody else was talking about that adjusted time with other prospects, so it artificially makes Carter seem significantly slower.

I think you had to at least add context before I called you on it. That's all.
 
I think to assume that all pro days are skewed by the exact same amount is foolish.

It's entirely possible that an Ohio State pro day is skewed in the athlete's favor much more heavily than UNC, or a smaller football school.

If a website wants to skew every time by .05 seconds, that's their prerogative. I'd call it lazy. At best, it provides zero worth. At worst, it's actively harmful. A better alternative would be to just denote pro day instead of combine.

The scouts know the real times anyways. Wish we could get better data in the public.
 
Out of the Rafters at the Q said:
A better alternative would be to just denote pro day instead of combine.
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Player Profiler does that. For players who only have a pro day time, they show the adjusted time, but underneath it they have the scout consensus time and it says "pro day."

Which is why I use their site.
 
Jack Brickman said:
Player Profiler does that. For players who only have a pro day time, they show the adjusted time, but underneath it they have the scout consensus time and it says "pro day."

Which is why I use their site.
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Some of you can probably point to a dating website that shows you are six feet tall instead of whatever you really are... it still doesn't mean you are six feet tall, just like it doesn't mean Carter ran a 4.59 when he was actually timed somewhere between 4.50 and 4.53... and at this point I'm going to go ahead and point out you were off by .06 instead of .05. I was being polite and didn't point it out, but somehow you still haven't admitted to being completely misleading. So, there you go.
 
Randolphkeys said:
Some of you can probably point to a dating website that shows you are six feet tall instead of whatever you really are... it still doesn't mean you are six feet tall, just like it doesn't mean Carter ran a 4.59 when he was actually timed somewhere between 4.50 and 4.53... and at this point I'm going to go ahead and point out you were off by .06 instead of .05. I was being polite and didn't point it out, but somehow you still haven't admitted to being completely misleading. So, there you go.
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Player Profiler has him listed as a 4.54 forty adjusted to a 4.59. Take it up with Matt Kelley if you think someone is being misleading, because it ain't me. No need to be a dick about it.

www.playerprofiler.com

Michael Carter Stats & Fantasy Ranking - PlayerProfiler

Michael Carter player profile featuring career stats, fantasy ranking, & analytics data. See combine scores, SPARQ, measurables, and comparable players.
www.playerprofiler.com www.playerprofiler.com
 
Jack Brickman said:
Player Profiler has him listed as a 4.54 forty adjusted to a 4.59. Take it up with Matt Kelley if you think someone is being misleading, because it ain't me. No need to be a dick about it.

www.playerprofiler.com

Michael Carter Stats & Fantasy Ranking - PlayerProfiler

Michael Carter player profile featuring career stats, fantasy ranking, & analytics data. See combine scores, SPARQ, measurables, and comparable players.
www.playerprofiler.com www.playerprofiler.com
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Nobody knows who he is. That's my point. Can we use all the rest of the internet who agree?
 
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