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2021 NBA Draft Safari

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David Aldridge's NBA version of the NFL Draft Confidential piece...


Eastern Conference executive 2: Now, maybe (GM Troy Weaver) sees something in Mobley that nobody else sees. And that could be him. Troy knows how to pick ’em. So maybe he sees something in Evan that he doesn’t quite see in Cade — long term, for their team. The other part about Evan is Wasserman. Arn (Tellem, the former mega-agent, who is now the Pistons’ vice chairman) created Wasserman, so there could be a connection there.
 
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Thats a better player than the average 3rd pick...
Yup, and Draymond was a top 5 player in his draft class. It would have been seen as crazy to take him top 3, but look how it's turned out. With that said, it would be really ballsy to take Barnes top 3 in this draft, you have to be really sure his swing skills will develop.
 
Yup, and Draymond was a top 5 player in his draft class. It would have been seen as crazy to take him top 3, but look how it's turned out. With that said, it would be really ballsy to take Barnes top 3 in this draft, you have to be really sure his swing skills will develop.
Sorry never been on the Draymond Green band wagon, you take two of the best shooter of all time, great system, good coaching and Draymond flourish in it, I get it he a good passer, play really good defense, but you seen what happen when he don’t have that around him the last 2 years,…..If it was a redraft for that year I’m still not taking him in the first 5 picks, now with that said I really like Barnes, I think he has a higher offensive ceiling then green…….
 
Thats a better player than the average 3rd pick...

In recent memory Harden, Beal, Embiid, Tatum, Doncic and LaMelo were #3 overall selections. True stars come out of this pick and rather often.

Aiming for a Draymond type is shooting pretty low there IMO. Saying Barnes is Draymond means his shooting won't be good.......and if you tell me Barnes shooting will kind of just never improve, he is a lot less interesting to me.

I'd much rather gamble on someone with Cade's shooting markers than select a player at #3 overall, in a really good draft, thinking his ceiling is Draymond.
 
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In recent memory Harden, Beal, Embiid, Tatum, Doncic and LaMelo were #3 overall selections. True stars come out of this pick and rather often.

Aiming for a Draymond type is shooting pretty low there IMO. Saying Barnes is Draymond means his shooting won't be good.......and if you tell me Barnes shooting will kind of just never improve, he is a lot less interesting to me.

I'd much rather gamble on someone with Cade's shooting markers than select a player at #3 overall in a really good draft, thinking his ceiling is Draymond.
3 is more consistent than 2 ill give you that. Thing is I do think Barnes will improve his shooting a lot. Imo he is clearly a better prospect than Cade among the wings.
 
Seems kinda unfair to assume that Barnes won't improve but Cade will. Sure, if you pencil Barnes in as a 28% 3-point shooter forever then he doesn't look too good. But if you pencil Cade in as a negative assist:TO guy forever then he also doesn't look too good.

The whole game is find a prospect whose strengths are most likely to translate, and whose weaknesses are most likely to be fixable. IMO Barnes looks as solid as anyone from that perspective.
 
Seems kinda unfair to assume that Barnes won't improve but Cade will. Sure, if you pencil Barnes in as a 28% 3-point shooter forever then he doesn't look too good. But if you pencil Cade in as a negative assist:TO guy forever then he also doesn't look too good.

The whole game is find a prospect whose strengths are most likely to translate, and whose weaknesses are most likely to be fixable. IMO Barnes looks as solid as anyone from that perspective.

I think I would go back and read the exchange. No one said he can't improve, my response was to the notion that you should take a Draymond type at 3. I honestly think that type of player does next to nothing for you, in the grand scheme of things, without a true 1 and 2 for a title team.

You have to be more star averse in the top 3, even if you swing and miss. It is the reason I think Jalen Green should be taken #1 overall. Because if everything comes together, I want a dynamic wing scoring engine over just about anything else.
 
I think I would go back and read the exchange. No one said he can't improve, my response was to the notion that you should take a Draymond type at 3. I honestly think that type of player does next to nothing for you, in the grand scheme of things, without a true 1 and 2 for a title team.

You have to be more star averse in the top 3, even if you swing and miss. It is the reason I think Jalen Green should be taken #1 overall. Because if everything comes together, I want a dynamic wing scoring engine over just about anything else.

It just doesn't seem very reasonably to say Barnes's ceiling is Draymond. Draymond was a career 2/17 from deep after two seasons of college ball...Barnes is 11/40 after one season. He also had better assist:TO numbers as a freshman than Draymond had as a senior. Qualitatively, he has fluidity and athleticism as a ballhandler that Draymond could never dream of. So arguing that Barnes has a low offensive ceiling because he's similar to Draymond is silly in my opinion...Barnes is *far* ahead of Draymond offensively at the same age.
 
It just doesn't seem very reasonably to say Barnes's ceiling is Draymond. Draymond was a career 2/17 from deep after two seasons of college ball...Barnes is 11/40 after one season. He also had better assist:TO numbers as a freshman than Draymond had as a senior. Qualitatively, he has fluidity and athleticism as a ballhandler that Draymond could never dream of. So arguing that Barnes has a low offensive ceiling because he's similar to Draymond is silly in my opinion...Barnes is *far* ahead of Draymond offensively at the same age.
Exactly, Barnes is a better prospect than Draymond, he's much further along at similar stage of development. His shooting will likely improve, Draymond at his peak draining 3's in the finals was a hugely impactful player, I think we can all agree with that. I'm of the opinion that Barnes develops into a much better player, the way the game is played now, his defensive versatility is so valuable. Plus I think he has a lot of upside offensively, I just wouldn't be surprised if he was the best guy in this draft.

Doubt we take him at 3, because if you're Koby Altman and you take that gamble and he doesn't develop then you're fired. So, I assume we take who ever is left out of the consensus top 3, which isn't so bad.
 
Id be on board if I didn't think consensus was so far off. I like Mobley but the other two I view as the fourth and fifth best prospects. I do think the top 6 of this draft (Mobley barnes Suggs cade sengun green) is a top 3 in most drafts...that is this is a draft with 6 top 3 players. So I'm fine either way really, but I do have a strong preference for the first 3 players in that list in a vacuum. For the Cavs, swap Cade and Suggs
 
I like Barnes as a prospect…. But if the Cavs take Barnes at #3 I am officially done with the Cavs.

As a lifelong Cavs fan I have witnessed several idiotic decisions by our front office. But this one would be unforgivable. The top 3 is obvious. You pick whichever of the 3 falls to you.

If our front office reaches in THIS draft after lucking out with the #3 pick then every single person needs fired and replaced.
 
Posted this elsewhere already but I am so confused why Cade is the consensus #1 pick. It just makes no sense when you compare him to a guy like Mobley.

Mobley scored 3.7 ppg less while playing 88% of the possessions per game Cade did due to slightly less minutes and being on a significantly slower paced team. Per 100 possessions, Cade edges him at 31.2 points versus 28.5 points, which isn't that much of an advantage in volume rate. And that's virtually Cade's only edge. Then you factor in that Mobley was a lot more efficient than Cade, scoring at 62.4% TS compared to Cade's 57.4%. He was a much more efficient playmaker, posting a 1.06 AST/TO ratio which is very impressive as a big, while Cade posted a .86 AST/TO ratio as the team's primary playmaker.

Mobley grabbed offensive rebounds at over 4 times the rate Cade did. He grabbed more defensive rebounds. He fouled less despite being a far more active defender. And in terms of defense, it's just not even close with Mobley being maybe the most impressive defensive prospect since Davis while Cade struggled on that end. In fact, Mobley anchored the 8th best defense in the country (adjusted def efficiency) allowing the 2nd lowest opposing 2P%.

Mobley posted a 13.7 BPM (7.9 Off / 5.8 Def) while Cade posted an 8.3 BPM (5.1 Off / 3.2 Def). Mobley's BPM was actually #1 in the country, and it makes him 1 of just 4 freshmen who finished top 3 in BPM within the last 10 years. The others?

Karl Anthony-Towns
Zion Williamson
Anthony Davis
And add Evan Mobley to that list...

Finally Mobley led his team further in the tournament. So even as a guy who's seen as raw while Cade is some established basketball savant with an already developed shot, it's actually pretty clear that Mobley is the better basketball player right now. And he offers better physical tools considering Cade struggled to beat guys off the dribble when faced with athletic defenders due to his lack of burst and handles, whereas Mobley's 7ft height, 7ft4 wingspan, fluidity, and quickness for his size are all elite. The only knock on Mobley is how skinny he is, but that's a much easier task to resolve than Cade fixing his lack of athleticism, as we've seen bigs like Davis and Embiid put on serious mass since entering the league before. People reference Doncic to try to say Cade doesn't need to be athletic, but Doncic has elite deceleration/shiftiness which allows him to get to wherever he wants on the floor. Along with far better vision, physicality, and handles. Even against better defenders in Europe compared to college players, he never showed the struggles Cade did in getting to and finishing at the rim. So this isn't close to me. Mobley is the clearly better prospect, and just like in 2018, the guy who should be the no-brainer consensus first overall pick will fall to 3rd. Except now we're the ones who can take advantage.
 
Here's the bit on Suggs from that article:

Pro-Suggs

USA Basketball Member 2:
Nothing against Jalen Green, but I love Jalen Suggs. That football mentality that he brought to basketball, his toughness, I think is a real separator. Jalen Green is a freak athlete, but Jalen Green also has that smooth west coast game that can sometimes be misconstrued as soft or lazy because he does things so effortlessly. But I would go to war with Suggs every day. He’s tough. He can play. He talks. He leads. His mentality is just different, and I loved it. Loved it. Suggs brought it every day. You knew what you were going to get with him. Part of leading is leading by example. You never had to question whether or not you were getting his best effort. You never had to question whether or not he was locked in. He wanted to win. Winning, sometimes, can get lost in the shuffle. Never with him. If he had to do something that wasn’t glamorous, or wasn’t going to get all the attention, so be it. He was going to be right there doing it. He’s a winner. That’ll translate.Guys have to be able to play with other really good players. They can’t be that ball dominant. If you get drafted by the Mavericks, Luka Dončić is going to have the ball 90 percent of the time. So if all you can do is be productive when you have the ball, you’re going to have a problem. You go to the Lakers, LeBron’s going to have the ball. If you go to Atlanta, Trae Young’s going to have the ball. That’s just reality. There’s very few guys who are gonna be picked where a team says ‘here’s the ball; it’s your team now.’ That just isn’t gonna happen.Jalen Suggs, to me, has proved that he can play with other good players and that he’s going to do things that aren’t the most glamorous jobs. He can sacrifice. ’Cause he’s all about winning. If I were picking No. 1 — and no offense to Cade Cunningham, he’s a totally different beast, he’s a 6-8 point guard — but it would take a lot for me to pass up on picking Jalen Suggs. He’s one of my favorites. He’s it, man. …Jalen Suggs’ game just translates so much easier. His size is going to help him (defensively), both his height and his physicality. He’ll be allowed to be a little bit more physical, as long as he keeps his hands off. Anything inside the 3-point line, he’s going to be allowed to use his chest and his hips. Again, he’s a football player.

Western Conference executive 2: Shot’s not broken. He just needs reps. Everyone wants Ben (Simmons) to become a shooter. So does the defense. That’s what they want him to do. If Suggs can get it to 36, 37 percent, that will be great because he’s really good. The football shows up. He’s got some of that blue-collar shit in him.

USA Basketball member 1: He is ultra competitive. He loves to compete. Any time we played three-on-three, cutthroat, where there’s a winner or loser, he’d play for a couple of hours. He’s a good athlete, but not as good as Green. Playing football helps his vision. He’s got great vision. From a quarterback standpoint, he knows where people are at. He knows how to make a tough pass. Suggs is certainly, his learning curve will be really low in how to play defense, where he should be. Understands spacing. Reacts really well. Moving when the ball is in the air. He made up a lot of ground when the ball was in the air. Really good on-ball defender.

Eastern Conference executive 2: I’ve seen him work through adversity. I’ve seen him take a step back to fit in with the team, and step in when they needed him to score. I’ve seen him start off bad in a game and come back the second half and turn it on. I have more faith in him coming in. … a lot of times, players are limited in how they’re able to read (plays) — not only offensively, but defensively, too. That’s a player being able to know, “OK, if this happens, then this is going to happen.” You’ve got to have that creativity to be a step ahead of a play.That’s another reason I like Suggs, because I’ve seen that with him. He’s able to anticipate, not only defensively, but offensively. “If I make this pass, or I come off this screen, I can read that this defense is going to do this, and I’ll have these options to make reads off of.” … Jalen can manipulate the play. I’ve seen LeBron manipulate the play because he knows two steps ahead and what reads to make.

Koby leans heavily on his contacts from USA Basketball in his draft evals. Both had glowing things to say about Suggs. That said, Cade, Green, Mobley, Barnes were all part of the program too, so Koby will have that same access for info and opinions on all the guys possibly there at 3. If anything, reading that Suggs portion just makes me feel better that there's almost no wrong way we can go at 3, be it Green, Mobley, or Suggs.
 
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