2021 NBA Draft Safari

[I'mWithDan]

So what is better, a higher or lower PDIFF number? You mentioned PDIFF in relation to VORP so the VORP figures, along with the player's positiom must be factors that determine the PDIFF numbers, right?

Higher PDIFF is better. PDIFF is a measure of possession based college production and then the VORP is tracked via NBA stats. So it is tracking, relative to college production, how predictive is this excess production measure for NBA success? Hopefully that makes sense. Trying not to get too in to the weeds.

At some point, I want to get around to doing a large charting exercise on all this stuff but it is so much data (nearing 500 players, 30 some data points each) that my computer might blow up.

It is on my list of things to do though.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I would probably roughly end up here. With tiers, they are sorted by PDIFF but it isn't necessarily a rank order.

I don't know that I take Sengun #2 overall but after Mobley, I think there is at least a conversation.

These numbers will differ marginally, as I finally bugged my friend for athletic composite data.

It doesn't drastically change anyone, it is just used in the formula as more of a tie breaker for similar producers.

So I would see....

T1 - Mobley, clear #1 to me
T2 - Picks 2-6
T3 - Pick 7
T4 - 8-13
T5 - 14-24
T6 - 25-30
T7 - Fringe 1st

I tend to give up around 34 or so guys, in terms of a tier exercise.

Of the rest, guys who are interesting.....

Donta Scott
Moses Wright
Max Abmas
Marcus Zegarowski
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Taevion Kinsey

Just wanted to bump to shoutout whatever the hell you do to model this, because this is looking right on the money.

You had the number 3, 4, and 8 picks ranked 1, 3, and 4 respectively and I don't think you can argue much that they've been the 3 best rookies to this point. Mobley, Barnes, and Wagner have been tremendous considering how much their teams have been asking them to do on both sides of the ball to this point as 20 year old rookies.

Only a matter of time for that models #2 player too, just can't stay on the floor enough yet to put up the numbers because he fouls a lot like a typical rookie big (yet another thing that makes Mobley all the more special).

 

[catfish]

Just wanted to bump to shoutout whatever the hell you do to model this, because this is looking right on the money.

You had the number 3, 4, and 8 picks ranked 1, 3, and 4 respectively and I don't think you can argue much that they've been the 3 best rookies to this point. Mobley, Barnes, and Wagner have been tremendous considering how much their teams have been asking them to do on both sides of the ball to this point as 20 year old rookies.

Only a matter of time for that models #2 player too, just can't stay on the floor enough yet to put up the numbers because he fouls a lot like a typical rookie big (yet another thing that makes Mobley all the more special).

Hate to throw cold water on this analysis but what is the story with Queta then? Is it all about the age 22? Seems like we might have wound up with a generational player which would be very unusual batting average for a team after getting Lebron and Kyrie. The thing about him is he seems so relaxed when he plays-like you can tell there is more that we are going to see over the years.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Hate to throw cold water on this analysis but what is the story with Queta then? Is it all about the age 22? Seems like we might have wound up with a generational player which would be very unusual batting average for a team after getting Lebron and Kyrie. The thing about him is he seems so relaxed when he plays-like you can tell there is more that we are going to see over the years.

There are some qualitative measures. One being age / athletic profile. But one of the mistakes the data I have tends to show, is that teams bet more on tools than production outside of the first 20 picks, when the inverse should be the strategy.

So that top group of players in Tier5 were productive sleepers I thought could be success cases. Duarte was in that group and has been great. Queta has yet to get PT, so who knows…..and Chanpagnie has been getting dev work in the G-League and just logged some minutes with Toronto recently

No model is full proof. The point of my model is pool identification more than anything. If you can successfully narrow your choices to a more successful profile pool, your results will almost always be better.

 

[bs80]

Just wanted to bump to shoutout whatever the hell you do to model this, because this is looking right on the money.

Went back to give a like to @I'mWithDan's post, and then I remembered this gem:

Bless his heart

Has anyone retrieved this dude's dead body atop of that hill yet? Marvin Bagley and Brandan Wright

 

[Ozone]

Higher PDIFF is better. PDIFF is a measure of possession based college production and then the VORP is tracked via NBA stats. So it is tracking, relative to college production, how predictive is this excess production measure for NBA success? Hopefully that makes sense. Trying not to get too in to the weeds.

At some point, I want to get around to doing a large charting exercise on all this stuff but it is so much data (nearing 500 players, 30 some data points each) that my computer might blow up.

It is on my list of things to do though.

Has any of this advanced analysis stuff been around long enough to show examples of players it didn't think highly of that have gone on to have great careers? Has it shown to be reliable at actually predicting team scheme and usage as influencing outcomes?
I just think every player has about a 1 in 10 chance of being in a great situation that caters to their strengths early on

 

[J_J]

I’m a huge fan of Keisei Tominaga. He’s from Japan and recently transferred to Nebraska under Fred Hoilberg and I’ve watched him since high school where he put up 50-60 points in many games. Keisei is one of the best shooters I’ve seen and he can shoot from Dame/Curry range and he has a really good step back 3 that Harden does so well. No one really knows him yet but I’m sure his stock will rise this year.

Technically Tominaga will be in his 2nd season coming up with Nebraska but he just scored 33 points against Australia (not the best guys especially when Maker is their best there) but hitting 8-15 from 3pt land with extreme range like Dame and Curry. I’ve watched him so much and he could have Poole impact in the future.

@0:23 And1 dribble right shot
@1:25 3pt
@1:48 making many 3s so he drives for easy layup
@2:25 extreme range
@2:35 his back feet is inside the half court logo and splashed

 

[J_J]

Tominaga has averaged 24.5 ppg in the last 4 games along with 18 3s made in this span contributing 3 wins. Again, continue to shoot lights out from the logo, step back 3s, etc. Yeah we need wings but he’s a player who can bring Poole impact to the NBA. His shooting is a big weapon plus he plays with a lot of effort and heart.