2021 NBA Draft Safari

Do Not Sell My Personal Information

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,898
Reaction score
18,166
Points
123
So what is better, a higher or lower PDIFF number? You mentioned PDIFF in relation to VORP so the VORP figures, along with the player's positiom must be factors that determine the PDIFF numbers, right?

Higher PDIFF is better. PDIFF is a measure of possession based college production and then the VORP is tracked via NBA stats. So it is tracking, relative to college production, how predictive is this excess production measure for NBA success? Hopefully that makes sense. Trying not to get too in to the weeds.

At some point, I want to get around to doing a large charting exercise on all this stuff but it is so much data (nearing 500 players, 30 some data points each) that my computer might blow up. :chuckle:

It is on my list of things to do though.
 

BimboColesHair

I'd rather be golfing.
Joined
Dec 31, 2011
Messages
17,785
Reaction score
31,622
Points
148
I would probably roughly end up here. With tiers, they are sorted by PDIFF but it isn't necessarily a rank order.

I don't know that I take Sengun #2 overall but after Mobley, I think there is at least a conversation.

These numbers will differ marginally, as I finally bugged my friend for athletic composite data.

It doesn't drastically change anyone, it is just used in the formula as more of a tie breaker for similar producers.

So I would see....

T1 - Mobley, clear #1 to me
T2 - Picks 2-6
T3 - Pick 7
T4 - 8-13
T5 - 14-24
T6 - 25-30
T7 - Fringe 1st

Screen-Shot-2021-07-29-at-9-21-43-AM.png

Screen-Shot-2021-07-29-at-9-24-42-AM.png



I tend to give up around 34 or so guys, in terms of a tier exercise.

Of the rest, guys who are interesting.....

Donta Scott
Moses Wright
Max Abmas
Marcus Zegarowski
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
Taevion Kinsey

Just wanted to bump to shoutout whatever the hell you do to model this, because this is looking right on the money.

You had the number 3, 4, and 8 picks ranked 1, 3, and 4 respectively and I don't think you can argue much that they've been the 3 best rookies to this point. Mobley, Barnes, and Wagner have been tremendous considering how much their teams have been asking them to do on both sides of the ball to this point as 20 year old rookies.

Only a matter of time for that models #2 player too, just can't stay on the floor enough yet to put up the numbers because he fouls a lot like a typical rookie big (yet another thing that makes Mobley all the more special).
 

catfish

Gold Star Member
Joined
Dec 22, 2008
Messages
4,941
Reaction score
3,363
Points
113
Just wanted to bump to shoutout whatever the hell you do to model this, because this is looking right on the money.

You had the number 3, 4, and 8 picks ranked 1, 3, and 4 respectively and I don't think you can argue much that they've been the 3 best rookies to this point. Mobley, Barnes, and Wagner have been tremendous considering how much their teams have been asking them to do on both sides of the ball to this point as 20 year old rookies.

Only a matter of time for that models #2 player too, just can't stay on the floor enough yet to put up the numbers because he fouls a lot like a typical rookie big (yet another thing that makes Mobley all the more special).

Hate to throw cold water on this analysis but what is the story with Queta then? Is it all about the age 22? Seems like we might have wound up with a generational player which would be very unusual batting average for a team after getting Lebron and Kyrie. The thing about him is he seems so relaxed when he plays-like you can tell there is more that we are going to see over the years.
 

I'mWithDan

"Straight Cash Homie"
Joined
Jul 21, 2010
Messages
9,898
Reaction score
18,166
Points
123
Hate to throw cold water on this analysis but what is the story with Queta then? Is it all about the age 22? Seems like we might have wound up with a generational player which would be very unusual batting average for a team after getting Lebron and Kyrie. The thing about him is he seems so relaxed when he plays-like you can tell there is more that we are going to see over the years.

There are some qualitative measures. One being age / athletic profile. But one of the mistakes the data I have tends to show, is that teams bet more on tools than production outside of the first 20 picks, when the inverse should be the strategy.

So that top group of players in Tier5 were productive sleepers I thought could be success cases. Duarte was in that group and has been great. Queta has yet to get PT, so who knows…..and Chanpagnie has been getting dev work in the G-League and just logged some minutes with Toronto recently

No model is full proof. The point of my model is pool identification more than anything. If you can successfully narrow your choices to a more successful profile pool, your results will almost always be better.
 
Last edited:

bs80

Sixth Man
Joined
Jan 22, 2006
Messages
899
Reaction score
1,486
Points
93

Ozone

Sixth Man
Joined
Mar 10, 2017
Messages
2,338
Reaction score
1,026
Points
113
Higher PDIFF is better. PDIFF is a measure of possession based college production and then the VORP is tracked via NBA stats. So it is tracking, relative to college production, how predictive is this excess production measure for NBA success? Hopefully that makes sense. Trying not to get too in to the weeds.

At some point, I want to get around to doing a large charting exercise on all this stuff but it is so much data (nearing 500 players, 30 some data points each) that my computer might blow up. :chuckle:

It is on my list of things to do though.
Has any of this advanced analysis stuff been around long enough to show examples of players it didn't think highly of that have gone on to have great careers? Has it shown to be reliable at actually predicting team scheme and usage as influencing outcomes?
I just think every player has about a 1 in 10 chance of being in a great situation that caters to their strengths early on
 

Help For Business Hit By Covid

Total amount
$1,170.00
Goal
$1,000.00

Rubber Rim Job Podcast

Episode 1:5 "Extension City"
Top