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2021 Season | Series #42 | Indians @ Red Sox | Sep. 3-5

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In the six games against the Red Sox over the last 10 days the starters had an ERA of 3.31 while the bullpen was at 7.28. We didn't have the depth to handle the losses of Maton, Karinchak, and Sandler.

Consider that the six starters were Quantrill (2), Morgan (2), Allen (1), and Plesac (1). No Bieber, Civale, or McKenzie. But they still put up a 3.31 against Boston. The Indians could have gone 5-1 or 6-0 with a decent bullpen. Heck, Karinchak gave up a 3-run game winning home run to a guy batting .185 that was in the minors the day before.
 
CATS44 said:
Our payroll for this year was about $50 mil.

A 25% increase would be $62.5. I expect somewhat more.
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Source? Ok Cots says $49.6 Million. You’re dreaming if you think payroll will rise above $65M next season. New merchandising cannot increase revenues enough to offset lagging attendance.
 
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DCTribefan said:
Source? Ok Cots says $49.6 Million. You’re dreaming if you think payroll will rise above $65M next season. New merchandising cannot increase revenues enough to offset lagging attendance.
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Did I say the payroll would go beyond $65 mil?

I did not.

I said 'somewhat more' than $62.5 mil.
 
Wham with the Right Hand said:
Wittgren has lost seven games this season and has a 4.47 ERA. He has been well below average, IMO.

On April 3 he gave up 3 runs in 2/3 of an inning in a 5-2 loss.

On April 22 he gave up 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning in a 6-3 loss.

On June 25 he gave up 2 runs in 1 inning in an 8-7 loss.

On July 5 he gave up one run in 2/3 innings in a 9-8 loss.

On July 23 he gave up 5 runs in 1/3 innings in a 10-5 loss.

On Aug 1 he gave up 1 run in 1.1 innings in a 2-1 loss.

On Aug. 28 he gave up 2 runs in 1/3 innings in a 5-3 loss.

On Sep. 4 he gave up 1 run in 1 inning in a 4-3 loss.

Today he gave up 2 runs in 1 inning but the Indians won despite that.

Wittgren has not had a good year and I do not expect that he'll be back. His usage rate has been pretty constant; 7 appearances in April, 11 in May, 10 in June, 8 in July (All-Star break), and 12 in August. I don't think the injuries to starters have increased his usage and diminished his effectiveness. I don't see his usage rate increase much if any and he was blowing games in April, June, and July. He's given up 11 home runs.

Shaw has seven losses and five blown saves. His WHIP is 1.40, so he has not been doing a great job of keeping runners off the bases. At 33 I'm not high on him, either.

As for question #1, we might be able to get by just adding a good lefty reliever if they can get Karinchak back to where he was (or close to it). That would give us a pen of Clase, Karinchak, Sandlin, the lefty we acquire, Stephan, Mejia, and Hentges. Those last two are out of options so I assume they'll be in the pen. I would still try for one more. Maybe Parker, although he's pretty long in the tooth.
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Wittgren has 52.1 IP in 50 appearances this season with about a month left. The most innings he's ever pitched was in 2019 where he had 57.2 IP in 55 appearances. He'll surpass his 2019 numbers. He threw 23.2 innings last season.

I'm not necessarily arguing that his poor performance is factually a result of that, only that it is a possibility. It's also a possibility that he is having a bad year like most, if not all relievers do. There is also a chance that he has declined and will never be the same. His ERA is a full run higher than it was last season while his FIP is actually lower. I think Wittgren is the same pitcher he's been for a couple of seasons with poorer results.
 
33Y0 said:
1) Yes
2) Yes but lately hasn't been as much of an issue; so I wouldn't use it as an excuse.
3) Downside
4) No
5) I'd leave him in the 'pen
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I pretty much disagree with everything here, but that's alright.
 
DCTribefan said:
Source? Ok Cots says $49.6 Million. You’re dreaming if you think payroll will rise above $65M next season. New merchandising cannot increase revenues enough to offset lagging attendance.
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The FO even said they are looking to increase payroll... So 60-70 million range sounds like an increase. They aren't going to spend just spend, and with a lot of guys still pre-arb, we aren't going to just increase a ton, but I expect one or two mid tier free agents signed/players traded for, would be very in the cards for 22...
 
CDAV45 said:
Wittgren has 52.1 IP in 50 appearances this season with about a month left. The most innings he's ever pitched was in 2019 where he had 57.2 IP in 55 appearances. He'll surpass his 2019 numbers. He threw 23.2 innings last season.

I'm not necessarily arguing that his poor performance is factually a result of that, only that it is a possibility. It's also a possibility that he is having a bad year like most, if not all relievers do. There is also a chance that he has declined and will never be the same. His ERA is a full run higher than it was last season while his FIP is actually lower. I think Wittgren is the same pitcher he's been for a couple of seasons with poorer results.
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I'm not sure it's valid to compare his numbers with last season when he only pitched 23 innings because of the short schedule. I don't expect Bieber to ever match his 2020 numbers over a full season.

Wittgren has definitely fallen off since 2019, his last full season. He's had four fewer appearances than in 2019, pitched to 13 fewer batters, and thrown 115 fewer pitches so it's not like they bumped up his workload. By the end of this season his number of appearances and pitches thrown will be higher than in 2019, but not by much.

His ERA has increased from 2.81 to 4.73. His WHIP has increased from 1.08 to 1.22. Opponent's OBP is up from .268 to .309 and their slugging percentage is up significantly from .407 to .475. He's given up 28 earned runs this year compared to 18 two years ago in four fewer innings and he has seven losses compared to only one in 2019.

He's given up the same number of doubles and home runs, but more singles. The only thing I can figure is that opponents are doing better at stringing hits together and getting hits with men on base this year.

Next year? He's only 30 and his K's are still there, so maybe they bring him back. I think the first two guys to go would be Young and Garza. If I'm not mistaken Mejia and Hentges are out of options so they have to be in the bullpen next year unless the Indians are OK with losing them. They also need to make room for Karinchak and I assume a lefty free agent or trade acquisition. That puts Parker, Wittgren, and Shaw on the bubble.
 
Wittgren has never looked like more than a mediocre middle innings guy to me.

Z-Mac, Matt Albers, Nick Wittgren… what’s the difference?
 
Derek said:
Wittgren has never looked like more than a mediocre middle innings guy to me.

Z-Mac, Matt Albers, Nick Wittgren… what’s the difference?
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There isn't much difference.

The difference is how they individually did from year to year.

Albers is a great example.

Although ERA is a lousy way to judge a reliever, it can show us how up and down relievers can be.

At age 26 Albers was converted to a full time reliever. His ERAs were..

5.51
4.52
4.73

On the surface, not very good. But then...

2.39
2.29
2.57
3.14
0.90 (only 8 appearances)
1.21

On the surface, pretty awesome, but then...

6.31

Toast. But then..

1.62

Based upon a looking track record, Milwaukee signed him for two years..

7.34
5.13

Finally, toast.

Albers is not an anomaly.

This is why our FO does not delve into the FA market for big name relievers, nor extend them, nor make major trades for them, unless it is the best reliever on the planet at well below market value.

While we fans will judge Wittgren by his most recent results, my guess is that the FO is far more focused on his peripherals...and his cost, which may approach $3 mil.

And if we are expecting a major FA signing, we are gonna be disappointed.

More likely, a bunch of bargain basement one year deals...or a throw in/secondary piece in a major trade...like Albers, Shaw, and Cimber were.
 
CATS44 said:
There isn't much difference.

The difference is how they individually did from year to year.

Albers is a great example.

Although ERA is a lousy way to judge a reliever, it can show us how up and down relievers can be.

At age 26 Albers was converted to a full time reliever. His ERAs were..

5.51
4.52
4.73

On the surface, not very good. But then...

2.39
2.29
2.57
3.14
0.90 (only 8 appearances)
1.21

On the surface, pretty awesome, but then...

6.31

Toast. But then..

1.62

Based upon a looking track record, Milwaukee signed him for two years..

7.34
5.13

Finally, toast.

Albers is not an anomaly.

This is why our FO does not delve into the FA market for big name relievers, nor extend them, nor make major trades for them, unless it is the best reliever on the planet at well below market value.

While we fans will judge Wittgren by his most recent results, my guess is that the FO is far more focused on his peripherals...and his cost, which may approach $3 mil.

And if we are expecting a major FA signing, we are gonna be disappointed.

More likely, a bunch of bargain basement one year deals...or a throw in/secondary piece in a major trade...like Albers, Shaw, and Cimber were.
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Yep, and Wittgren’s peripherals have been consistently lackluster during his time in Cleveland. One of the reasons I never wanted to give him high-leverage opportunities even when the team tried to pretend otherwise.
 
Derek said:
Yep, and Wittgren’s peripherals have been consistently lackluster during his time in Cleveland. One of the reasons I never wanted to give him high-leverage opportunities even when the team tried to pretend otherwise.
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You and I will have to disagree with that...lol.

Do you know that his xFIP is the lowest of his career, or that his BABIP is the highest since we got him, or that his launch angle is by far the lowest of his career, or that his GB rate is well above his career numbers?

The one negative is that his hard hit rate has ballooned. He's giving up a lot fewer fly balls, but they are going farther.

Thats an anomaly. Thats an adjustment away from being very good.
 
CATS44 said:
You and I will have to disagree with that...lol.

Do you know that his xFIP is the lowest of his career, or that his BABIP is the highest since we got him, or that his launch angle is by far the lowest of his career, or that his GB rate is well above his career numbers?

The one negative is that his hard hit rate has ballooned. He's giving up a lot fewer fly balls, but they are going farther.

Thats an anomaly. Thats an adjustment away from being very good.
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His FIP and xERA are in the mid-4’s as they’ve always been.

xFIP favors him because it normalizes HR rate, and Wittgren is very HR prone. Everything else points to this just being who he is, a below average pitcher, who just happened to out-pitch his peripherals in previous seasons.
 
Derek said:
His FIP and xERA are in the mid-4’s as they’ve always been.

xFIP favors him because it normalizes HR rate, and Wittgren is very HR prone. Everything else points to this just being who he is, a below average pitcher, who just happened to out-pitch his peripherals in previous seasons.
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Wittgren isn't a bad pitcher but he is due arbitration 3 in 22 and he's not worth that. He's a fringe/depth guy on almost any roster, but not worth paying a legit MLB arm's price. I want him back in 22, but as a minor league invite to spring...
 
sportscoach said:
Wittgren isn't a bad pitcher but he is due arbitration 3 in 22 and he's not worth that. He's a fringe/depth guy on almost any roster, but not worth paying a legit MLB arm's price. I want him back in 22, but as a minor league invite to spring...
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Not sure I want him back even as an NRI but if Guardians cannot get anyone better, than ok. It may be a moot point, however, as Mrs. Wittgren is very sensitive to social media criticism.
 
I noticed Clase was credited with the save even though he was protecting a 5-run lead. Is this because he entered the game in the eighth inning when it was a one-run lead?
 
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