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Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

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bs80 said:
Per footballdb.com, 2020 QB rating splits when leading/trailing/tied for QBs with over 300 attempts on the season, ranked by overall passer ratings (Mullens had the fewest of those that made the cutoff with 312 attempts in nine games played, Trubisky had the most of those that missed the cutoff with 297 attempts in ten games played):

1) 134.9 / 95.9 / 86.1 rating in 287 / 136 / 103 attempted passes
2) 130.0 / 112.2 / 78.8 rating in 115 / 358 / 71 attempted passes
3) 131.7 / 96.9 / 65.6 rating in 280 / 210 / 98 attempted passes
4) 127.7 / 88.7 / 67.5 rating in 324 / 149 / 99 attempted passes
5) 132.0 / 86.9 / 96.3 rating in 156 / 227 / 98 attempted passes
6) 123.7 / 100.2 / 83.9 rating in 155 / 159 / 76 attempted passes
7) 122.3 / 86.9 / 88.7 rating in 282 / 182 / 94 attempted passes
8) 129.8 / 95.2 / 100.4 rating in 131 / 317 / 68 attempted passes
9) 127.9 / 86.0 / 79.7 rating in 246 / 294 / 70 attempted passes
10) 128.6 / 93.3 / 90.4 rating in 115 / 295 / 107 attempted passes
11) 112.4 / 86.9 / 75.2 rating in 215 / 92 / 69 attempted passes
12) 126.0 / 88.6 / 75.3 rating in 189 / 308 / 98 attempted passes
13) 104.0 / 88.4 / 101.7 rating in 216 / 230 / 97 attempted passes
14) 112.6 / 90.0 / 91.5 rating in 105 / 337 / 86 attempted passes
15) 114.6 / 90.3 / 69.3 rating in 188 / 210 / 88 attempted passes
16) 158.3 / 93.7 / 49.2 rating in 8 / 297 / 22 attempted passes
17) 105.5 / 95.8 / 66.6 rating in 164 / 311 / 83 attempted passes
18) 110.4 / 89.8 / 66.3 rating in 267 / 217 / 124 attempted passes
19) 110.5 / 81.8 / 82.3 rating in 248 / 274 / 104 attempted passes
20) 126.8 / 84.4 / 56.7 rating in 135 / 286 / 72 attempted passes
21) 92.4 / 84.0 / 96.8 rating in 217 / 216 / 119 attempted passes
22) 104.5 / 83.9 / 85.0 rating in 112 / 213 / 79 attempted passes
23) 123.3 / 73.0 / 80.1 rating in 73 / 216 / 44 attempted passes
24) 98.9 / 82.6 / 66.8 rating in 75 / 204 / 47 attempted passes
25 )113.1 / 81.7 / 58.6 rating in 76 / 208 / 84 attempted passes
26) 83.5 / 81.7 / 65.9 rating in 55 / 232 / 25 attempted passes
27) 90.3 / 75.3 / 81.0 rating in 129 / 255 / 64 attempted passes
28) 123.1 / 64.5 / 68.3 rating in 77 / 287 / 79 attempted passes
29) 80.8 / 72.8 / 64.2 rating in 80 / 283 / 74 attempted passes
30) 88.1 / 66.7 / 81.9 rating in 74 / 250 / 40 attempted passes

I hope that 300 attempts was a fair cutoff point for the sake of this exercise -- I'm trying to avoid being accused of cherry picking stats to prove a point. These numbers are indicative of the entire 2020 season. I added in the number of attempted passes for each split so that you guys can draw your own conclusions regarding sample size.

After soaking in some of these numbers to get a sense of what an average split should look like, feel free to check the spoiler alert below to see who's who.

1) Aaron Rodgers (121.5 rating overall)
2) Deshaun Watson (112.4 rating overall)
3) Patrick Mahomes (108.2 rating overall)
4) Josh Allen (107.2 rating overall)
5) Ryan Tannehill (106.5 rating overall)
6) Drew Brees (106.4 rating overall)
7) Russell Wilson (105.1 rating overall)
8) Kirk Cousins (105.0 rating overall)
9) Tom Brady (102.2 rating overall)
10) Derek Carr (101.4 rating overall)
11) Lamar Jackson (99.3 rating overall)
12) Justin Herbert (98.3 rating overall)
13) Philip Rivers (97.0 rating overall)
14) Matthew Stafford (96.3 rating overall)
15) Baker Mayfield (95.9 rating overall)
16) Gardner Minshew (95.9 rating overall, :hah:only 8 attempts when leading)
17) Kyler Murray (94.3 rating overall)
18) Ben Roethlisberger (94.1 rating overall)
19) Matt Ryan (93.3 rating overall)
20) Teddy Bridgewater (91.9 rating overall)
21) Jared Goff (90.0 rating overall)
22) Joe Burrow (89.8 rating overall)
23) Andy Dalton (87.3 rating overall)
24) Nick Mullens (84.1 rating overall)
25) Cam Newton (82.9 rating overall)
26) Nick Foles (80.8 rating overall)
27) Daniel Jones (80.4 rating overall)
28) Drew Lock (75.4 rating overall)
29) Carson Wentz (72.8 rating overall)
30) Sam Darnold (72.7 rating overall)
Click to expand...
Yeah, I figured he wasn't terrible when measuring just his throwing in those situations. He was #9 in rating while trailing based on those numbers.

Even more so I bet he ranks even higher when measuring QBR, which is what I would love to see. Guys like Watson, Wilson, Cousins, Carr, etc... would inevitably be lower in QBR compared to their rankings in rating since they'll eat sacks left and right rather than throw an incomplete pass to hurt their efficiency. That's why those QBs, for all the good they do, can hurt the team in ways most stats don't measure.

Even if you measure in 3rd down, 4th quarter kind of situations, Baker has often scrambled and gotten a first down to extend the drive (which isn't measured in rating) just like in week 17 to seal the playoff berth, so his "rating" numbers might depict a worse scenario than what is actually happening.

2021 Baker is obviously an oddity but I think 2020 Baker (especially last ~10 games) was perfectly fine.
 
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sailfish said:
I agree. We can’t be hamstrung by that type of contract, especially when Baker hasn’t proven himself worthy. DePodesta is a former baseball guy and Baker is under our control for one more season after this. Would they let him go into 2022 with Baker on the last year of his deal? I kinda find that hard to believe, but we’ll see.

If he hasn’t proven himself by 2022 then I think we may look trade him. How about Baker for Kirk Cousins and a 1st?
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Kirk isn't enough of an improvement, IMO. Kirk is efficiency galore, effectiveness being his weakness. Baker, at least in 2020, was the exact opposite - lower efficiency, but highly effective. You can go 3/3 and be extremely efficient, but if it only totals 9 yards, is that better than going 1/3 for 25 yards?

Obtaining Kirk just presents a different suite of issues that box stats tend to hide and fans would get frustrated with, as Vikings fans have been for some time now. But I'm not opposed to a trade if he isn't proven as long as it brings in a clear upgrade.
 
Vee-Rex said:
Yeah, I figured he wasn't terrible when measuring just his throwing in those situations. He was #9 in rating while trailing based on those numbers.

Even more so I bet he ranks even higher when measuring QBR, which is what I would love to see. Guys like Watson, Wilson, Cousins, Carr, etc... would inevitably be lower in QBR compared to their rankings in rating since they'll eat sacks left and right rather than throw an incomplete pass to hurt their efficiency. That's why those QBs, for all the good they do, can hurt the team in ways most stats don't measure.

Even if you measure in 3rd down, 4th quarter kind of situations, Baker has often scrambled and gotten a first down to extend the drive (which isn't measured in rating) just like in week 17 to seal the playoff berth, so his "rating" numbers might depict a worse scenario than what is actually happening.

2021 Baker is obviously an oddity but I think 2020 Baker (especially last ~10 games) was perfectly fine.
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A lot of the knocks on Baker coming up the past few games suggest that the points of criticism have always been there, but it's just that the team is under much more scrutiny now because of the expectations they are carrying.

For instance, some screenshots of him making wrong reads, and the EPA charts that show how awful he's been this year. I'd be really curious to see that kind of stuff from the second half of last year. I do still believe that Baker will continue to trend upward at this stage in his career, and I don't think that the last 10 or so games of last year is an anomaly that he should be expected to regress from. That's not to say that I refuse to believe that the same warts from this season were also there last season, but for the sake of fairness and consistency, I'd love to know how he graded out last season.

I'd also love to see an in depth breakdown of Baker's success rate in crunch time drives compared to the expected league average. I know we love to say things like "well did you have any doubt in your mind that <insert elite QB here> would lead them to a score?" but I suspect that in reality, they fail to score way more often than we would think.
 
bs80 said:
Per footballdb.com, 2020 QB rating splits when leading/trailing/tied for QBs with over 300 attempts on the season, ranked by overall passer ratings (Mullens had the fewest of those that made the cutoff with 312 attempts in nine games played, Trubisky had the most of those that missed the cutoff with 297 attempts in ten games played):

1) 134.9 / 95.9 / 86.1 rating in 287 / 136 / 103 attempted passes
2) 130.0 / 112.2 / 78.8 rating in 115 / 358 / 71 attempted passes
3) 131.7 / 96.9 / 65.6 rating in 280 / 210 / 98 attempted passes
4) 127.7 / 88.7 / 67.5 rating in 324 / 149 / 99 attempted passes
5) 132.0 / 86.9 / 96.3 rating in 156 / 227 / 98 attempted passes
6) 123.7 / 100.2 / 83.9 rating in 155 / 159 / 76 attempted passes
7) 122.3 / 86.9 / 88.7 rating in 282 / 182 / 94 attempted passes
8) 129.8 / 95.2 / 100.4 rating in 131 / 317 / 68 attempted passes
9) 127.9 / 86.0 / 79.7 rating in 246 / 294 / 70 attempted passes
10) 128.6 / 93.3 / 90.4 rating in 115 / 295 / 107 attempted passes
11) 112.4 / 86.9 / 75.2 rating in 215 / 92 / 69 attempted passes
12) 126.0 / 88.6 / 75.3 rating in 189 / 308 / 98 attempted passes
13) 104.0 / 88.4 / 101.7 rating in 216 / 230 / 97 attempted passes
14) 112.6 / 90.0 / 91.5 rating in 105 / 337 / 86 attempted passes
15) 114.6 / 90.3 / 69.3 rating in 188 / 210 / 88 attempted passes
16) 158.3 / 93.7 / 49.2 rating in 8 / 297 / 22 attempted passes
17) 105.5 / 95.8 / 66.6 rating in 164 / 311 / 83 attempted passes
18) 110.4 / 89.8 / 66.3 rating in 267 / 217 / 124 attempted passes
19) 110.5 / 81.8 / 82.3 rating in 248 / 274 / 104 attempted passes
20) 126.8 / 84.4 / 56.7 rating in 135 / 286 / 72 attempted passes
21) 92.4 / 84.0 / 96.8 rating in 217 / 216 / 119 attempted passes
22) 104.5 / 83.9 / 85.0 rating in 112 / 213 / 79 attempted passes
23) 123.3 / 73.0 / 80.1 rating in 73 / 216 / 44 attempted passes
24) 98.9 / 82.6 / 66.8 rating in 75 / 204 / 47 attempted passes
25 )113.1 / 81.7 / 58.6 rating in 76 / 208 / 84 attempted passes
26) 83.5 / 81.7 / 65.9 rating in 55 / 232 / 25 attempted passes
27) 90.3 / 75.3 / 81.0 rating in 129 / 255 / 64 attempted passes
28) 123.1 / 64.5 / 68.3 rating in 77 / 287 / 79 attempted passes
29) 80.8 / 72.8 / 64.2 rating in 80 / 283 / 74 attempted passes
30) 88.1 / 66.7 / 81.9 rating in 74 / 250 / 40 attempted passes

I hope that 300 attempts was a fair cutoff point for the sake of this exercise -- I'm trying to avoid being accused of cherry picking stats to prove a point. These numbers are indicative of the entire 2020 season. I added in the number of attempted passes for each split so that you guys can draw your own conclusions regarding sample size.

After soaking in some of these numbers to get a sense of what an average split should look like, feel free to check the spoiler alert below to see who's who.

1) Aaron Rodgers (121.5 rating overall)
2) Deshaun Watson (112.4 rating overall)
3) Patrick Mahomes (108.2 rating overall)
4) Josh Allen (107.2 rating overall)
5) Ryan Tannehill (106.5 rating overall)
6) Drew Brees (106.4 rating overall)
7) Russell Wilson (105.1 rating overall)
8) Kirk Cousins (105.0 rating overall)
9) Tom Brady (102.2 rating overall)
10) Derek Carr (101.4 rating overall)
11) Lamar Jackson (99.3 rating overall)
12) Justin Herbert (98.3 rating overall)
13) Philip Rivers (97.0 rating overall)
14) Matthew Stafford (96.3 rating overall)
15) Baker Mayfield (95.9 rating overall)
16) Gardner Minshew (95.9 rating overall, :hah:only 8 attempts when leading)
17) Kyler Murray (94.3 rating overall)
18) Ben Roethlisberger (94.1 rating overall)
19) Matt Ryan (93.3 rating overall)
20) Teddy Bridgewater (91.9 rating overall)
21) Jared Goff (90.0 rating overall)
22) Joe Burrow (89.8 rating overall)
23) Andy Dalton (87.3 rating overall)
24) Nick Mullens (84.1 rating overall)
25) Cam Newton (82.9 rating overall)
26) Nick Foles (80.8 rating overall)
27) Daniel Jones (80.4 rating overall)
28) Drew Lock (75.4 rating overall)
29) Carson Wentz (72.8 rating overall)
30) Sam Darnold (72.7 rating overall)
Click to expand...

About where i expected him. Baker isnt an elite qb, and he doesnt have a ton of come from behind wins, but he is far better than he is getting credit for this week and is a borderline top 10 QB. Carr is a wash, Brees retired, and I really dont know if i want Watson and his perversions, so Baker is what we got and he is good enough to win a SB with a loaded team like we have.
 
Vee-Rex said:
Yeah, I figured he wasn't terrible when measuring just his throwing in those situations. He was #9 in rating while trailing based on those numbers.

Even more so I bet he ranks even higher when measuring QBR, which is what I would love to see. Guys like Watson, Wilson, Cousins, Carr, etc... would inevitably be lower in QBR compared to their rankings in rating since they'll eat sacks left and right rather than throw an incomplete pass to hurt their efficiency. That's why those QBs, for all the good they do, can hurt the team in ways most stats don't measure.

Even if you measure in 3rd down, 4th quarter kind of situations, Baker has often scrambled and gotten a first down to extend the drive (which isn't measured in rating) just like in week 17 to seal the playoff berth, so his "rating" numbers might depict a worse scenario than what is actually happening.

2021 Baker is obviously an oddity but I think 2020 Baker (especially last ~10 games) was perfectly fine.
Click to expand...

Baker this year has a 98.2 rating with 69% completion, 4 TD's (plus 1 running) and 2 picks, 248 yards a game which is 4,000 yards in a normal 16 game season. His completion % is good, yards are decent, only thing low is TD's but, we have been scoring, just leading the league in Rush TD, not his fault.

He isnt Rodgers or Mahommes, but he has been solid. You pick apart any qb like we have Baker and we will notice missed opportunities. But if Baker finishes with 4k yards, 25 TD's and 7 Int's, we should all be happy.
 
Vee-Rex said:
Yes, he did.

There were a lot of missed reads, however. Burns did a solid breakdown and Baker was nowhere near optimal. Even so, he did more than enough to win the game, and anyone pointing to Burns's breakdown but conveniently ignoring how they also ripped the defense is being disingenuous about why we lost on Sunday.
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I'm sure if this Burns character analized Brady, Mahomes or Rogers last week for example he would find just as many so called "misreads". Sorry, not buying it. The bottom line was 42 points put up by the Browns offense. Burns has the typical national agenda against Mayfield. You won't see him attack other quarterbacks like that.
 
Lee said:
Baker this year has a 98.2 rating with 69% completion, 4 TD's (plus 1 running) and 2 picks, 248 yards a game which is 4,000 yards in a normal 16 game season. His completion % is good, yards are decent, only thing low is TD's but, we have been scoring, just leading the league in Rush TD, not his fault.

He isnt Rodgers or Mahommes, but he has been solid. You pick apart any qb like we have Baker and we will notice missed opportunities. But if Baker finishes with 4k yards, 25 TD's and 7 Int's, we should all be happy.
Click to expand...
If Baker finishes with those numbers I guarantee you we will NOT all be happy. Not even close. He pretty much posted those numbers last season. And look at the narrative both nationally and locally. . Mayfield planting the flag at the Shoe will be forever embedded in the minds of the haters.
 
The Baker conversation is going to have wild fluctuations because as a player, he is prone to wild fluctuations. He can be a Pro Bowler in seven possessions of a game, but then take a hit and look like Charlie Frye for two possessions afterwards.

Is he a guy who can get you into the playoffs with those wild fluctuations? Absolutely, and he already has. Can he beat a great team on any given Sunday? Yes... but he can lose you the big game just as routinely.

Baker is a guy who needs quality players on the field with him. He needs strong pass protection, and he needs receivers who run the correct routes. That's the key for his contract talks, when they happen. He needs to give the franchise enough money to give him weapons and an offensive line. Maybe Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen can cover up some awful play around them, but Baker hasn't been able to do that.
 
CBBI said:
:puke:

View attachment 6687
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I've looked at this list and I don't see Lamar Jackson listed. Do the Ravens not make it to 3rd and 4th down enough to qualify for this list? It'd only be like 11 plays a game. Obviously not the take away from the list I should have gotten, but I am curious now.
 
Sharpner said:
I've looked at this list and I don't see Lamar Jackson listed. Do the Ravens not make it to 3rd and 4th down enough to qualify for this list? It'd only be like 11 plays a game. Obviously not the take away from the list I should have gotten, but I am curious now.
Click to expand...

Wentz isn't on there either. It was for weeks 1-5 and the Ravens and Colts hadn't played yet when the graph was created.
 
Lee said:
About where i expected him. Baker isnt an elite qb, and he doesnt have a ton of come from behind wins, but he is far better than he is getting credit for this week and is a borderline top 10 QB. Carr is a wash, Brees retired, and I really dont know if i want Watson and his perversions, so Baker is what we got and he is good enough to win a SB with a loaded team like we have.
Click to expand...
Ok so I just took a quick look on stathead.com to build some scenarios to get a sense of how we have been in 4th quarter drives where we need to score. I don't have a subscription with them so the teams that have logged the ten most number of drives that fit the search's criteria do not show up for me. I was able to get data for the Browns on a search that queries all drives beginning with six minutes or left in the 4th quarter, while trailing by 4 to 8 points. Basically, a situation late in the game when we need to score a touchdown.

Baker has converted 3 out of 8 drives (37.5%) fitting this description for touchdowns. FYI, the search actually returns 5 out of 10 successful drives, but I went back and checked the first couple games of 2018 when Tyrod Taylor was playing and found out that TyGod was 2 for 2 in that span. The league average for converting such drives was 27.7%. If anyone has a subscription to Stathead, feel free to tinker with the filter and dig stuff up that I don't have access to.

With such small sample sizes, it's hard to really quantify how clutch a QB is. With Baker, he's delivered in the past, but perhaps it gets wiped out of our memories because the defense goes on to give up a GW drive. I specifically remember Baker's first home game against Baltimore when he hit that sweet pass to Willies to put us in position to win in overtime. Since it was overtime, it doesn't count toward the search I just referenced earlier, but let's not act like Baker shits the bed at crunch time any more than the rest of the league.
 
bs80 said:
Ok so I just took a quick look on stathead.com to build some scenarios to get a sense of how we have been in 4th quarter drives where we need to score. I don't have a subscription with them so the teams that have logged the ten most number of drives that fit the search's criteria do not show up for me. I was able to get data for the Browns on a search that queries all drives beginning with six minutes or left in the 4th quarter, while trailing by 4 to 8 points. Basically, a situation late in the game when we need to score a touchdown.

Baker has converted 3 out of 8 drives (37.5%) fitting this description for touchdowns. FYI, the search actually returns 5 out of 10 successful drives, but I went back and checked the first couple games of 2018 when Tyrod Taylor was playing and found out that TyGod was 2 for 2 in that span. The league average for converting such drives was 27.7%. If anyone has a subscription to Stathead, feel free to tinker with the filter and dig stuff up that I don't have access to.

With such small sample sizes, it's hard to really quantify how clutch a QB is. With Baker, he's delivered in the past, but perhaps it gets wiped out of our memories because the defense goes on to give up a GW drive. I specifically remember Baker's first home game against Baltimore when he hit that sweet pass to Willies to put us in position to win in overtime. Since it was overtime, it doesn't count toward the search I just referenced earlier, but let's not act like Baker shits the bed at crunch time any more than the rest of the league.
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Its his 4th season, he has 3 seasons of experience, but only 1 under Stefanski, i dont expect him to elite yet, but you are proving he is about league average not elite on clutch drives. Doesnt mean he wont get better, but you proved my eye test, he is only average on clutch drives not Brady level or even Lamar level (which is so fucking annoying Lamar has been as good as he has)
 
CBBI said:
Wentz isn't on there either. It was for weeks 1-5 and the Ravens and Colts hadn't played yet when the graph was created.
Click to expand...

Keep scrolling....a little lower...lower....there he is.
 
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