Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[CBBI]

Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic asking the same question others here have been asking:

Question we have to ask: How much does Kevin Stefanski trust Baker Mayfield?​

Considering that Mayfield threw for 305 yards, and the Browns’ offense scored 42 points, allow me to explain what I mean here. Expectations for Cleveland this year are different. Whether they’re good or not is no longer a real debate. Barring terrible luck or a rash of injuries, they should be in the playoffs.

But what about beyond that? We should now be viewing the Browns through the lens of: Can this team compete for a Super Bowl?

That’s what made Stefanski’s decision with 2:55 left so interesting. The Chargers missed the extra point on their previous touchdown, leaving the Browns with a 42-41 lead. Cleveland faced a third-and-9 from its own 15. Stefanski opted to run the ball with Kareem Hunt. He picked up 3 yards, the Browns punted, the Chargers got the ball back and scored, and Cleveland couldn’t capitalize on its final drive with 1:31 left. Game over.

Consider the circumstances here. On one hand, Stefanski told reporters that the Browns were banged up at tackle, and he was worried about protecting Mayfield on that third down so he handed it off. But on the other hand, the Browns were banged up on defense, and the Chargers had scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives.

Think about other quarterbacks in this spot: Patrick Mahomes, Allen, Herbert. Wouldn’t their coaches have tried to put the ball in their hands? Pick up a first down, force the opponent to use timeouts, run clock, and never give the ball back. But Stefanski’s decision suggested that he trusted his defense more than Mayfield. That’s bizarre (and telling) to me.

Overall, there was a lot to like from that Browns’ performance. They gashed the Chargers on the ground for 230 yards. David Njoku had a monster game with seven catches for 149 yards. Cleveland went toe to toe with a great opponent on the road and was minutes away from pulling off the upset.

But part of this season was always going to be about whether Mayfield had another level he could reach. We still have 12 games to figure that out. But Stefanski’s decision Sunday offered a key data point to store away as we track how the Browns operate going forward.

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theathletic.com

It would be one thing if Stefanski had taken the ball out of Mayfield's hands all year. This take would be a lot more valid if that was the case. But it's decidedly been the opposite really. Stefanski dialed up plenty of passing plays for Baker late in a one-score game against KC and late in a one-score game against Minnesota.

Yesterday was pretty much the first time all season the Browns actively took the ball out of Mayfield's hands in big spot. I think Stefanski just panicked a little bit.

 

[Damage]

It would be one thing if Stefanski had taken the ball out of Mayfield's hands all year. This take would be a lot more valid. But it's decidedly been the opposite really. Stefanski dialed up plenty of passing plays for Baker late in a one-score game against KC and late in a one-score game against Minnesota.

Yesterday was pretty much the first time all season the Browns actively took the ball out of Mayfield's hands in big spot. I think Stefanski just panicked a little bit.

Stefanski came out and said it had to do with their OL being down two starting tackles. Still agree that it was a mistake but I get the logic to a degree.

Worth noting: Before Sunday Chargers pass defense was elite:

Game 1: Heinicke 11/15 122 yards 0 picks
Game 2: Dak 23/27 237 yards 1 pick
Game 3: Mahomes 27/44 260, 2 picks
Game 4: Carr 21/34 196 yards 1 pick
4 game avg: 204 yards, 1 pick
-----------------------------------------------
Game 5: Baker 23/32 305 yards 0 picks

Side: Browns need to look at tackle and EDGE help ASAP

 

[Cassity14]

There’s this option that I guess seems impossible to people lately, especially stars:

Don’t use social media. Don’t follow it.

I continue to be fascinated by the fact that none of these guys see that there are indeed stars out there who do not use it and cannot follow suit.

I'd guess they see too much potential earnings being available as a result of a social media presence.

If Baker has no social media, does he get the lucrative commercial deals? Probably not. Shoot, Emily even gets sponsored by random 'lifestyle' products on IG now from what I understand.

 

[CBBI]

Stefanski came out and said it had to do with their OL being down two starting tackles. Still agree that it was a mistake but I get the logic to a degree.

Worth noting: Before Sunday Chargers pass defense was elite:

Game 1: Heinicke 11/15 122 yards 0 picks
Game 2: Dak 23/27 237 yards 1 pick
Game 3: Mahomes 27/44 260, 2 picks
Game 4: Carr 21/34 196 yards 1 pick
Game 5: Baker 23/32 305 yards 0 picks

Side: Browns need to look at tackle and EDGE help ASAP

I get that he said that and I get why he said it, but that excuse doesn't really hold water consider they literally passed the ball - and called a double move no less, which is a slower developing play - on 2nd and 10.

If the tackles weren't a concern on 2nd and 10 when Stefanski called dialed up a long-developing route, it's just hard to accept that they were that much of a concern on 3rd and 10.

I think for the first time in a long time he just panicked a bit.

 

[sailfish]

I’m not Baker Mayfield’s agent but I would rather work out a deal to send my client somewhere else where he can get paid. Or at least feel wanted right?

From the team perspective Baker playing on that 5th year option or the Franchise Tag might be okay but I doubt Baker’s representation is thrilled about that.

I have some serious qualms about giving Baker a big contract. He’s not in the league of the premier QB’s, but wants to be paid like one. It will be very interesting to see how the Browns handle this as Baker’s contract would take up close to 1/4 of the salary cap.

 

[Vee-Rex]

I have some serious qualms about giving Baker a big contract. He’s not in the league of the premier QB’s, but wants to be paid like one. It will be very interesting to see how the Browns handle this as Baker’s contract would take up close to 1/4 of the salary cap.

Yeah at this current rate, I would not give him a contract like Josh Allen's. If we gotta play 2022 out and then franchise him for 2023 then we do that and in the meantime try to find a way to ~upgrade~ (no lateral movements). But he can't get paid like the premier QBs.

Maybe that changes at the end of this year, we'll have to see.

 

[GonzoRatso88]

It’s pretty blatantly clear that Mayfield has been coached to not turn the ball over at all costs….

Don’t take risks, don’t turn it over, and it’s shown in his game in comparison to his rookie season where he was decisive and let it rip.

That’s the trust I’m talking about.

In the latest "Building the Browns", when Stefanski was introducing the "Legends" players (Cribbs, D'Qwell, Bernie, and Jim Brown), he talked about how Bernie had the zero interception streak and he said "A man after my own heart, he threw 308 passes without an interception". He hates turnovers and you are right that he has been coached do not turn the ball over ever and maybe that is why he is hesitant to throw deeper or crossing pattern passes?

 

[Los216]

Yeah at this current rate, I would not give him a contract like Josh Allen's. If we gotta play 2022 out and then franchise him for 2023 then we do that and in the meantime try to find a way to ~upgrade~ (no lateral movements). But he can't get paid like the premier QBs.

Maybe that changes at the end of this year, we'll have to see.

See.................

I'm speculating when I say this but I think Baker and his camp are laying the groundwork in case things go wrong for him to have a smooth exit where he can go to another team and still get his money.

I do not think Baker or his camp are interested in a hometown discount. No way they are on board for that but if the team doesn't want to pay him Josh Allen money then where are we? I think at that point both sides might be on board for a split.

This is why I believe that these statements from Baker and his camp coming out when he's playing poorly are done to protect his image and keep a narrative going that he's still a Franchise guy. He's playing for another contract right now and weather or not that contract comes from the Browns is not the point. It doesn't matter who gives him that big contract. That's what he's playing for though.

 

[Vee-Rex]

See.................

I'm speculating when I say this but I think Baker and his camp are laying the groundwork in case things go wrong for him to have a smooth exit where he can go to another team and still get his money.

I do not think Baker or his camp are interested in a hometown discount. No way they are on board for that but if the team doesn't want to pay him Josh Allen money then where are we? I think at that point both sides might be on board for a split.

This is why I believe that these statements from Baker and his camp coming out when he's playing poorly are done to protect his image and keep a narrative going that he's still a Franchise guy. He's playing for another contract right now and weather or not that contract comes from the Browns is not the point. It doesn't matter who gives him that big contract. That's what he's playing for though.

Well, we're approaching week 6.

The annual amount isn't a big deal, it's the long-term commitment. At the end of the year the team will have enough data to determine what his worth is and the limitations of the contract offer. If he refuses, then they'll search for another (perhaps better) option and figure out if they want to franchise him or not. Maybe they'll feel more comfortable seeing him in Stefanski's system a 3rd year before the long-term commitment.

It's usually not black-n-white, and I for one trust that Berry and company will make the best move for us.

 

[Damage]

I get that he said that and I get why he said it, but that excuse doesn't really hold water consider they literally passed the ball - and called a double move no less, which is a slower developing play - on 2nd and 10.

If the tackles weren't a concern on 2nd and 10 when Stefanski called dialed up a long-developing route, it's just hard to accept that they were that much of a concern on 3rd and 10.

I think for the first time in a long time he just panicked a bit.

Stefanski isn't an excuse guy but yea he did panic. Rarity.

 

[Malacogary]

I remember a really turgid game called by Stefanski in the 2019 Vikings at 49ers divisional round. At the time I marveled at his rigidity and the insistence of 'sticking to an identity' in the face of an overwhelming game situation. I think we've seen him grow as play-caller subsequently but it's an ongoing process. Calling that draw and then punting to an unstoppable opponent on Sunday was a retreat into that mentality which I think can still sometimes present. It's still early in the season and everyone on offense is hopefully evolving. For what it's worth I loved the game AVP called at Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Genuinely seemed like they could either run or pass out of every formation with considerable disguise. It was uptempo at times (even with a big lead) and constantly had the Steelers off balance. Landry is obviously a big part of being able to play that way, both from the slot or wherever else they want to line him up.

 

[Vee-Rex]

I remember a really turgid game called by Stefanski in the 2019 Vikings at 49ers divisional round. At the time I marveled at his rigidity and the insistence of 'sticking to an identity' in the face of an overwhelming game situation. I think we've seen him grow as play-caller subsequently but it's an ongoing process. Calling that draw and then punting to an unstoppable opponent on Sunday was a retreat into that mentality which I think can still sometimes present. It's still early in the season and everyone on offense is hopefully evolving. For what it's worth I loved the game AVP called at Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Genuinely seemed like they could either run or pass out of every formation with considerable disguise. It was uptempo at times (even with a big lead) and constantly had the Steelers off balance. Landry is obviously a big part of being able to play that way, both from the slot or wherever else they want to line him up.

I loved AVP's play-calling in the Steelers game too. And then I was a bit disappointed in Stefanski's play-calling in the playoff Chiefs game. Felt like he gave up on the run and play-action pass game.

I feel like I have a desire to be more aggressive on early downs than Stefanski has shown. There have been a lot of times I'm thinking the defense would get caught with their pants down if Stefanski ran PA in a scenario, and when he runs the ball we get stuffed. The situation just feels obvious when defense is gonna sell out on it before they even line up.

Then there are those times when I'm yearning for the PA pass and he runs and Chubb/Hunt get big yards over and over again, and I'm left feeling kind of silly that I wanted them to pass when running was sufficient.

Long story short - I wouldn't draw much from the single AVP called game. We're likely nit-picking at his calling as well if we saw a substantial amount of it.

 

[bs80]

His numbers this year are worse than last.

2020

Leading: 114.6

Trailing: 90.3

Tied: 69.3

He threw 73% of his TD’s with a lead last season.

In 2021, he has thrown all his TD passes while leading.

Certainly, QB stats trend downward in obvious passing situations but I posted these to illustrate how downright bad Baker is in those situations.

Most QB’s perform more like league average to slightly plus league average passers in those splits (2 min, 4th quarter, etc). Baker performs like Charlie Frye.

Per footballdb.com, 2020 QB rating splits when leading/trailing/tied for QBs with over 300 attempts on the season, ranked by overall passer ratings (Mullens had the fewest of those that made the cutoff with 312 attempts in nine games played, Trubisky had the most of those that missed the cutoff with 297 attempts in ten games played):

1) 134.9 / 95.9 / 86.1 rating in 287 / 136 / 103 attempted passes
2) 130.0 / 112.2 / 78.8 rating in 115 / 358 / 71 attempted passes
3) 131.7 / 96.9 / 65.6 rating in 280 / 210 / 98 attempted passes
4) 127.7 / 88.7 / 67.5 rating in 324 / 149 / 99 attempted passes
5) 132.0 / 86.9 / 96.3 rating in 156 / 227 / 98 attempted passes
6) 123.7 / 100.2 / 83.9 rating in 155 / 159 / 76 attempted passes
7) 122.3 / 86.9 / 88.7 rating in 282 / 182 / 94 attempted passes
8) 129.8 / 95.2 / 100.4 rating in 131 / 317 / 68 attempted passes
9) 127.9 / 86.0 / 79.7 rating in 246 / 294 / 70 attempted passes
10) 128.6 / 93.3 / 90.4 rating in 115 / 295 / 107 attempted passes
11) 112.4 / 86.9 / 75.2 rating in 215 / 92 / 69 attempted passes
12) 126.0 / 88.6 / 75.3 rating in 189 / 308 / 98 attempted passes
13) 104.0 / 88.4 / 101.7 rating in 216 / 230 / 97 attempted passes
14) 112.6 / 90.0 / 91.5 rating in 105 / 337 / 86 attempted passes
15) 114.6 / 90.3 / 69.3 rating in 188 / 210 / 88 attempted passes
16) 158.3 / 93.7 / 49.2 rating in 8 / 297 / 22 attempted passes
17) 105.5 / 95.8 / 66.6 rating in 164 / 311 / 83 attempted passes
18) 110.4 / 89.8 / 66.3 rating in 267 / 217 / 124 attempted passes
19) 110.5 / 81.8 / 82.3 rating in 248 / 274 / 104 attempted passes
20) 126.8 / 84.4 / 56.7 rating in 135 / 286 / 72 attempted passes
21) 92.4 / 84.0 / 96.8 rating in 217 / 216 / 119 attempted passes
22) 104.5 / 83.9 / 85.0 rating in 112 / 213 / 79 attempted passes
23) 123.3 / 73.0 / 80.1 rating in 73 / 216 / 44 attempted passes
24) 98.9 / 82.6 / 66.8 rating in 75 / 204 / 47 attempted passes
25 )113.1 / 81.7 / 58.6 rating in 76 / 208 / 84 attempted passes
26) 83.5 / 81.7 / 65.9 rating in 55 / 232 / 25 attempted passes
27) 90.3 / 75.3 / 81.0 rating in 129 / 255 / 64 attempted passes
28) 123.1 / 64.5 / 68.3 rating in 77 / 287 / 79 attempted passes
29) 80.8 / 72.8 / 64.2 rating in 80 / 283 / 74 attempted passes
30) 88.1 / 66.7 / 81.9 rating in 74 / 250 / 40 attempted passes

I hope that 300 attempts was a fair cutoff point for the sake of this exercise -- I'm trying to avoid being accused of cherry picking stats to prove a point. These numbers are indicative of the entire 2020 season. I added in the number of attempted passes for each split so that you guys can draw your own conclusions regarding sample size.

After soaking in some of these numbers to get a sense of what an average split should look like, feel free to check the spoiler alert below to see who's who.

Spoiler: QB Names Revealed

1) Aaron Rodgers (121.5 rating overall)
2) Deshaun Watson (112.4 rating overall)
3) Patrick Mahomes (108.2 rating overall)
4) Josh Allen (107.2 rating overall)
5) Ryan Tannehill (106.5 rating overall)
6) Drew Brees (106.4 rating overall)
7) Russell Wilson (105.1 rating overall)
8) Kirk Cousins (105.0 rating overall)
9) Tom Brady (102.2 rating overall)
10) Derek Carr (101.4 rating overall)
11) Lamar Jackson (99.3 rating overall)
12) Justin Herbert (98.3 rating overall)
13) Philip Rivers (97.0 rating overall)
14) Matthew Stafford (96.3 rating overall)
15) Baker Mayfield (95.9 rating overall)
16) Gardner Minshew (95.9 rating overall, only 8 attempts when leading)
17) Kyler Murray (94.3 rating overall)
18) Ben Roethlisberger (94.1 rating overall)
19) Matt Ryan (93.3 rating overall)
20) Teddy Bridgewater (91.9 rating overall)
21) Jared Goff (90.0 rating overall)
22) Joe Burrow (89.8 rating overall)
23) Andy Dalton (87.3 rating overall)
24) Nick Mullens (84.1 rating overall)
25) Cam Newton (82.9 rating overall)
26) Nick Foles (80.8 rating overall)
27) Daniel Jones (80.4 rating overall)
28) Drew Lock (75.4 rating overall)
29) Carson Wentz (72.8 rating overall)
30) Sam Darnold (72.7 rating overall)

 

[Kbiz]

20 new pages since Sunday?! Well shit, there's got to be some actual meaningful discourse taking...

 

[sailfish]

Yeah at this current rate, I would not give him a contract like Josh Allen's. If we gotta play 2022 out and then franchise him for 2023 then we do that and in the meantime try to find a way to ~upgrade~ (no lateral movements). But he can't get paid like the premier QBs.

Maybe that changes at the end of this year, we'll have to see.

I agree. We can’t be hamstrung by that type of contract, especially when Baker hasn’t proven himself worthy. DePodesta is a former baseball guy and Baker is under our control for one more season after this. Would they let him go into 2022 with Baker on the last year of his deal? I kinda find that hard to believe, but we’ll see.

If he hasn’t proven himself by 2022 then I think we may look trade him. How about Baker for Kirk Cousins and a 1st?