• Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.

Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

Do Not Sell My Personal Information
bs80 said:
Ok so I just took a quick look on stathead.com to build some scenarios to get a sense of how we have been in 4th quarter drives where we need to score. I don't have a subscription with them so the teams that have logged the ten most number of drives that fit the search's criteria do not show up for me. I was able to get data for the Browns on a search that queries all drives beginning with six minutes or left in the 4th quarter, while trailing by 4 to 8 points. Basically, a situation late in the game when we need to score a touchdown.

Baker has converted 3 out of 8 drives (37.5%) fitting this description for touchdowns. FYI, the search actually returns 5 out of 10 successful drives, but I went back and checked the first couple games of 2018 when Tyrod Taylor was playing and found out that TyGod was 2 for 2 in that span. The league average for converting such drives was 27.7%. If anyone has a subscription to Stathead, feel free to tinker with the filter and dig stuff up that I don't have access to.

With such small sample sizes, it's hard to really quantify how clutch a QB is. With Baker, he's delivered in the past, but perhaps it gets wiped out of our memories because the defense goes on to give up a GW drive. I specifically remember Baker's first home game against Baltimore when he hit that sweet pass to Willies to put us in position to win in overtime. Since it was overtime, it doesn't count toward the search I just referenced earlier, but let's not act like Baker shits the bed at crunch time any more than the rest of the league.
Click to expand...

That tool seems very broken to me.

I searched Browns, 4 min or less in games of 8 points or less and it gave me 1 drive from the Tennessee game where we kneeled.

It somehow doesn’t even pick up 2 that happened this year (KC, LAC).

Without a subscription, not sure how reliable those queries are.

stathead.com

Drive Finder | Stathead.com

Drive Finder
stathead.com stathead.com
 
Lee said:
Its his 4th season, he has 3 seasons of experience, but only 1 under Stefanski, i dont expect him to elite yet, but you are proving he is about league average not elite on clutch drives. Doesnt mean he wont get better, but you proved my eye test, he is only average on clutch drives not Brady level or even Lamar level (which is so fucking annoying Lamar has been as good as he has)
Click to expand...
Hah, I was simply trying to provide evidence that he isn't the choker/frontrunner that some make him out to be. Of course we want better than league average, but I don't see Baker as some massive liability at the end of games. BTW, Lamar is 0 for 2 in similar situations.
 
I'mWithDan said:
That tool seems very broken to me.

I searched Browns, 4 min or less in games of 8 points or less and it gave me 1 drive from the Tennessee game where we kneeled.

It somehow doesn’t even pick up 2 that happened this year (KC, LAC).

Without a subscription, not sure how reliable those queries are.

stathead.com

Drive Finder | Stathead.com

Drive Finder
stathead.com stathead.com
Click to expand...
Ah ok I see what you did. Your search was actually for when the Browns were leading, not trailing, by 8 or less. Hence the kneel down. For when we are trailing, you'd want to either put a negative margin in there or make sure that the appropriate box indicates that we are trailing.
 
@bs80 is killing the narrative that Baker is trash in the clutch with his posts.

Not saying Baker is clutch but the idea that he's completely lost and ineffective there is just recency bias.
 
Vee-Rex said:
@bs80 is killing the narrative that Baker is trash in the clutch with his posts.

Not saying Baker is clutch but the idea that he's completely lost and ineffective there is just recency bias.
Click to expand...

Or…

Maybe it’s more appropriate to judge a more unproven QB based on what he’s doing in the present rather than citing data from the past.

And before you go into “well what about *insert top QB name* and the fact he threw multiple picks in a loss just a week or two ago!” counter argument…

The really elite class of QB like Mahomes and Rodgers and Brady and Wilson (and we’re either already there or rapidly approaching this with Allen, Herbert and Lamar) all get a lot more slack when they have a bad game or even a string of bad games (which is even more rare) because they have already proven themselves capable of being elite when it matters most - deep into the playoffs/Super Bowl and/or capable of being consistently elite with MVP or MVP caliber seasons.

Baker hasn’t done that, so he doesn’t get that same type of slack.

“He was really good in the clutch against a 4-11-1 Bengals team last year!”

Doesn’t have the same kind of gravitas as…

“He took his team to the Super Bowl and won it while playing great.”
 
Last edited:
Or…

Maybe it’s more appropriate to judge a more unproven QB based on what he’s doing in the present rather than citing data from the past.
Click to expand...
The present is only 5 games in. Like... the sample size is incredibly small. Only two of those 5 games he was in a position for a game-winning drive.

Regardless, you just posted in this very thread that Baker has a history of being bad in the clutch. Now that there are numbers are showing that he isn't as terrible as your narrative, you want to exclude them and only draw from 2 games this year, 1 of which he was playing with a torn labrum.

And before you go into “well what about *insert top QB name* and the fact he threw multiple picks in a loss just a week or two ago!” counter argumen5t…

The really elite class of QB like Mahomes and Rodgers and Brady and Wilson (and we’re either already there or rapidly approaching this with Allen, Herbert and Lamar) all get a lot more slack when they have a bad game or even a string of bad games (which is even more rare) because they have already proven themselves capable of being elite when it matters most - deep into the playoffs/Super Bowl and/or capable of being consistently elite with MVP or MVP caliber seasons.

Baker hasn’t done that, so he doesn’t get that same type of slack.

“He was really good in the clutch against a 4-11-1 Bengals team last year!”

Doesn’t have the same kind of gravitas as…

“He took his team to the Super Bowl and won it while playing great.”
Click to expand...
Really? So winning the Super Bowl is where you're going to draw the line in the sand for him? And if he does that, are the goal posts gonna shift to winning multiple Super Bowls? Colin Cowherd, is that you???
 
Vee-Rex said:
@bs80 is killing the narrative that Baker is trash in the clutch with his posts.

Not saying Baker is clutch but the idea that he's completely lost and ineffective there is just recency bias.
Click to expand...

What narrative has been killed?

Baker was middle of the pack in the rating data he posted from last season, which was easily his career best.

It also cited QB Rating, something you have continually said isn’t a good stat.

Orlovsky already had the data that Baker was 31st in 4th quarter QBR in 1 score games since entering the league.

The 4th Quarter rating data says he’s middle of the pack, the QBR data says he’s not good. So the narrative was killed based on an average and below average set of data?

The argument has been he’s not good enough relative to the roster and team aspiration. I have yet to see data that says that is not the case. Is he awful? He’s not awful. Is he good enough? I guess we’ll find out.
 
Last edited:
Pretty sure it was @Randolphkeys that said a lot of the fluctuation in opinions on Baker are because of the fluctuations in his play. 100% agree with that.

Dude will set a record for completions in a row one game, look lost a couple games later, throw 4 touchdowns in a half against Tennessee, miss wide-open receivers in favor of rolling out the pocket to the right, then look unbeatable against Pittsburgh in the playoff game.

It leads to a lot of differing opinions on him. And I get it. If you average out the highs and lows, he comes across to me as a top 10-15 quarterback, with spikes higher or lower depending on the game.

Can that win a Super Bowl? Sure, under the right circumstances, with the right amount of luck (which is required by most teams that win the super bowl). Can it torpedo a game at any given time? Sure. Our offense looks completely inept when he has bad games and the running game isn't clicking.

I still believe in him. I've seen too many great moments, games, etc. to want to cast him off the team. Now, if he's asking for top QB money, there's a different conversation to be had.

/rant lol
 
I'mWithDan said:
Orlovsky already had the data that Baker was 31st in 4th quarter QB in 1 score games since entering the league.
Click to expand...

I'mWithDan said:
The 4th Quarter rating data says he’s middle of the pack, the QBR data says he’s not good. So the narrative was killed based on an average and below average set of data?

The argument has been he’s not good enough relative to the roster and team aspiration. I have yet to see data that says that is not the case. Is he awful? He’s not awful. Is he good enough? I guess we’ll find out.
Click to expand...
Your post seems a bit wishy-washy, though the constant hammering you've done suggests you believe he's awful in those situations. You even mentioned Charlie Frye as a comparison. Now you're saying Baker's not awful. Is he awful or not?

I'm saying @bs80 provided enough to kill the narrative that Baker IS the awful, lost, confused and incapable clutch player that has been spewed all over this thread. That's all.

Also genuinely waiting on the QBR data you were gonna post for late game situations.
 
bs80 said:
Ok so I just took a quick look on stathead.com to build some scenarios to get a sense of how we have been in 4th quarter drives where we need to score. I don't have a subscription with them so the teams that have logged the ten most number of drives that fit the search's criteria do not show up for me. I was able to get data for the Browns on a search that queries all drives beginning with six minutes or left in the 4th quarter, while trailing by 4 to 8 points. Basically, a situation late in the game when we need to score a touchdown.

Baker has converted 3 out of 8 drives (37.5%) fitting this description for touchdowns. FYI, the search actually returns 5 out of 10 successful drives, but I went back and checked the first couple games of 2018 when Tyrod Taylor was playing and found out that TyGod was 2 for 2 in that span. The league average for converting such drives was 27.7%. If anyone has a subscription to Stathead, feel free to tinker with the filter and dig stuff up that I don't have access to.

With such small sample sizes, it's hard to really quantify how clutch a QB is. With Baker, he's delivered in the past, but perhaps it gets wiped out of our memories because the defense goes on to give up a GW drive. I specifically remember Baker's first home game against Baltimore when he hit that sweet pass to Willies to put us in position to win in overtime. Since it was overtime, it doesn't count toward the search I just referenced earlier, but let's not act like Baker shits the bed at crunch time any more than the rest of the league.
Click to expand...

For his career, Baker Mayfield has gotten the ball in the 4th quarter within 1 possession either direction of his opponent 67 times. Here are the results (removing kneel downs)

23 Punts
20 Touchdowns
9 Turnovers
9 Failed 4th Downs
5 Made Field Goals
1 Missed Field Goal
 
CBBI said:
For his career, Baker Mayfield has gotten the ball in the 4th quarter within 1 possession either direction of his opponent 67 times. Here are the results (removing kneel downs)

23 Punts
20 Touchdowns
9 Turnovers
9 Failed 4th Downs
5 Made Field Goals
1 Missed Field Goal
Click to expand...
Thanks for digging that up, do you have a subscription with them? And if you don't mind, do you also have the data for the entire league during that same timeframe?
 
Vee-Rex said:
Really? So winning the Super Bowl is where you're going to draw the line in the sand for him? And if he does that, are the goal posts gonna shift to winning multiple Super Bowls? Colin Cowherd, is that you???
Click to expand...

This is precisely where we are, yes.

Welcome to life as a Super Bowl contender my friend. Being good simply isn't good enough when the possibility exists to be great.

This team is built to win the Super Bowl right now. The window is wide open. Going 11-5 and winning a playoff game last year was awesome, but expectations are higher now.

I like Baker Mayfield. I like rooting for him. I desperately want him to become the QB all the time that he's shown flashes of being some of the time.

I'm just skeptical that he's ever going to become that guy. And frankly with the roster as good as it is 2-53, I'm not sure how long the organization can wait around for something that may not happen.

And look, I understand the realities of what it would take to actually upgrade that position. It's the most difficult position in the world to find someone great and guys who truly are great rarely become available. But the Browns have to at least explore it if things continue on the path they are on. That path being the inability to defeat the other contenders who have better QBs than they have.
 
Last edited:
bs80 said:
Thanks for digging that up, do you have a subscription with them? And if you don't mind, do you also have the data for the entire league during that same timeframe?
Click to expand...

I pulled that data myself :chuckle:

I would also be curious to see how Mayfield's near 30% TD drive percentage compares to the other contenders in the league.

For what it's worth, the Browns are 3/12 (25%) this year scoring 4th quarter TD's in close games.
 
CBBI said:
I pulled that data myself :chuckle:

I would also be curious to see how Mayfield's near 30% TD drive percentage compares to the other contenders in the league.

For what it's worth, the Browns are 3/12 (25%) this year scoring 4th quarter TD's in close games.
Click to expand...

Small sample size warning, but so far this year Justin Herbert has gotten the ball within 1 score either way 11 times.

Touchdowns: 7
Field Goals: 2
Punts: 1
Turnovers: 1

I reckon that a 63.6% TD percentage late in close games is probably not sustainable :chuckle:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Video

Episode 3-14: "Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey"

Rubber Rim Job Podcast Spotify

Episode 3:14: " Time for Playoff Vengeance on Mickey."
Top