Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

CBBI said:

This is precisely where we are, yes.

Welcome to life as a Super Bowl contender my friend. Being good simply isn't good enough when the possibility exists to be great.

This team is built to win the Super Bowl right now. The window is wide open. Going 11-5 and winning a playoff game last year was awesome, but expectations are higher now.

I like Baker Mayfield. I like rooting for him. I desperately want him to become the QB all the time that he's shown flashes of being some of the time.

I'm just skeptical that he's ever going to become that guy. And frankly with the roster as good as it is 2-53, I'm not sure how long the organization can wait around for something that may not ever happen.

And look, I understand the realities of what it would take to actually upgrade that position. It's the most difficult position in the world to find someone great and guys who truly are great rarely become available. But the Browns have to at least explore it if things continue on the path they are on. That path being the inability to defeat the other contenders who have better QBs than they have.

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I truly understand that we have higher expectations this year, and I realize Baker isn't in that elite category. The better he becomes, the better our ceiling will be. And I'm not opposed to exploring other options (as long as they're a clear upgrade) if things don't get better.

I just don't necessarily agree with the bolded - we're unable to defeat other contenders with better QBs with the current path we're on. I think we're fully capable of not only beating any team, but being the ~better~ team that game, and the 2 games we lost were so freaking close and decided largely by unlikely mistakes on players who weren't the QB.

Vee-Rex said:

I truly understand that we have higher expectations this year, and I realize Baker isn't in that elite category. The better he becomes, the better our ceiling will be. And I'm not opposed to exploring other options (as long as they're a clear upgrade) if things don't get better.

I just don't necessarily agree with the bolded - we're unable to defeat other contenders with better QBs with the current path we're on. I think we're fully capable of not only beating any team, but being the ~better~ team that game, and the 2 games we lost were so freaking close and decided largely by unlikely mistakes on players who weren't the QB.

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Maybe our QB didn't make enough plays to put the other team away.

I'mWithDan said:

It also cited QB Rating, something you have continually said isn’t a good stat.

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FWIW, I made that list in response to a post of yours that cited his 2020 passer rating split of 114.6 / 90.3 / 69.3 as evidence of how bad he is in certain situations. Personally, I have no strong opinion either way on the legitimacy of the passer rating metric. But when certain stats are cited as evidence supporting a certain narrative, and I believe that such stats, when taken into context, absolutely do not support that narrative, I feel the responsibility to point that out.

I hope I'm not coming across as trying to single you out -- all I was trying to do is point out that that particular passer rating split is in fact not evidence that Baker is particularly bad his team is not leading. No more, no less. And I also hope that this serves as a reminder that stats can so easily be framed to fit a narrative, and such an argument is often too easily taken at face value. While I'm certainly flattered by @Vee-Rex's support, I am not delusional enough to think that I have, nor ever will, kill such a broad narrative.

I'mWithDan said:

The argument has been he’s not good enough relative to the roster and team aspiration. I have yet to see data that says that is not the case. Is he awful? He’s not awful. Is he good enough? I guess we’ll find out.

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The last two sentences in that post I was replying to say "Certainly, QB stats trend downward in obvious passing situations but I posted these to illustrate how downright bad Baker is in those situations. Most QB’s perform more like league average to slightly plus league average passers in those splits (2 min, 4th quarter, etc). Baker performs like Charlie Frye."

I hope I'm not taking your comments too far out of context, and perhaps you were just being hyperbolic to make your point -- I'm sure most of us do that from time to time. But I certainly feel there is some moving of the goalposts going on here, and I'm not accusing you of being the lone culprit. Maybe I'm wrong, but the vibe I got was that there is a faction that thinks Baker is trash, or at the very least, below average in situations where we really need him to be great. I simply pointed out that I do not think he's below average, and now it feels like the responses are saying "well he's not awful, but still might not be good enough -- we can't win a Super Bowl with him."

Los216 said:

Maybe our QB didn't make enough plays to put the other team away.

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He was 44-60 626 yards and 2TD’s 1int (on a throw away getting hit) averaging 10.5 yard a completion. Was there really that much more he could have done? Those numbers are plenty good to win against great teams

DirtyDan said:

I remember @AZ_ with the Jeff Garcia comparison and I took a peek at their career numbers.
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I didn't start watching football until maybe somewhere between 2011 and 2013. So I wonder if any more experienced posters have seen similarities between Mayfield and Garcia?

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Jeff Garcia was better. I watched a lot of him. During his all star seasons, most of his efficiency numbers ranked him in the top 10 of the league. For example, the average QB rating during his time was 80.4. He was slightly below average with the Browns and awful with the Lions, but those were two really bad teams. The average rating during Baker's time is 93.2. Jeff Garcia might be above Baker's ceiling.

Los216 said:

Maybe our QB didn't make enough plays to put the other team away.

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You could use this argument for any QB that loses and doesn't have a 100% perfect game. Especially the QBs you've been pining for.

Maybe Kirk Cousins didn't make enough plays to put the Browns away week 4? Or Sam Darnold in his losses with the Jets/Panthers? Or Dwayne Haskins in Washington? Case Keenum is a backup because he didn't make enough plays, right? But these are all guys you were desperately calling for to replace Baker.

Bkerr02 said:

He was 44-60 626 yards and 2TD’s 1int (on a throw away getting hit) averaging 10.5 yard a completion. Was there really that much more he could have done? Those numbers are plenty good to win against great teams

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If you actually watch the film on don't strictly rely on the box scores then you would know that there was plenty more that could've been done.

Opting to go for a 5 yard pass to a RB when you have a WR who's open 15 yards down the field with nothing but green in front of him is an example of a QB not doing enough to win. But that 5 yard completion looks good in the stat book. However, that 15 yard completion could end up being a backbreaker for the opposing defense.

Vee-Rex said:

You could use this argument for any QB that loses and doesn't have a 100% perfect game. Especially the QBs you've been pining for.

Maybe Kirk Cousins didn't make enough plays to put the Browns away week 4? Or Sam Darnold in his losses with the Jets/Panthers? Or Dwayne Haskins in Washington? Case Keenum is a backup because he didn't make enough plays, right? But these are all guys you were desperately calling for to replace Baker.

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We aren't talking about any of those QB's right now though. We're talking about Baker.

Let's try to talk about what Baker is doing without invoking the shortcomings of other QB's. Those other QB's are not out there with the Browns.

bs80 said:

hope I'm not taking your comments too far out of context, and perhaps you were just being hyperbolic to make your point -- I'm sure most of us do that from time to time. But I certainly feel there is some moving of the goalposts going on here, and I'm not accusing you of being the lone culprit. Maybe I'm wrong, but the vibe I got was that there is a faction that thinks Baker is trash, or at the very least, below average in situations where we really need him to be great. I simply pointed out that I do not think he's below average, and now it feels like the responses are saying "well he's not awful, but still might not be good enough -- we can't win a Super Bowl with him."

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The league average passer rating in 2020 was 94. The stats you posted are the definition of below average in crunch time. They are both (tied, trailing) below that threshold. At best, he is average. This also ignores how bad his 4th quarter QBR data is.

So maybe it is a question of wether you think an average QB is good enough to win a super bowl, relative to how good the QB play is of our competition.

Los216 said:

We aren't talking about any of those QB's right now though. We're talking about Baker.

Let's try to talk about what Baker is doing without invoking the shortcomings of other QB's. Those other QB's are not out there with the Browns.

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I used those other QBs to illustrate how your statement was a flimsy argument, while pointing out the hypocrisy in your posts. You're the first one that's eager to start dropping other QBs names in this thread, or have you forgotten that already?

Vee-Rex said:

I truly understand that we have higher expectations this year, and I realize Baker isn't in that elite category. The better he becomes, the better our ceiling will be. And I'm not opposed to exploring other options (as long as they're a clear upgrade) if things don't get better.

I just don't necessarily agree with the bolded - we're unable to defeat other contenders with better QBs with the current path we're on. I think we're fully capable of not only beating any team, but being the ~better~ team that game, and the 2 games we lost were so freaking close and decided largely by unlikely mistakes on players who weren't the QB.

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In a win or go home scenario if Baker plays his best? Sure. They can beat anyone.

Is Baker capable of going on that kind of heater 4 times in 5 weeks against four of the league's best teams? Seems unlikely, but Joe Flacco never showed that ability either and he caught fire and did it. Nick Foles did same thing. So who knows?

Flacco pre-SB (5 seasons): 86.3 QB rating
Flacco 2012 Playoffs: 117.2 QB rating
Flacco post-SB (5 seasons): 82.1 QB rating

Foles pre-SB (6 seasons): 87.4 QB rating
Foles 2017 Playoffs: 115.7 QB rating
Foles post-SB (3 seasons): 86.2 QB rating

So these types of 4 week heaters aren't impossible as they've been done twice this decade, but it just seems like an unlikely thing to gamble on.

Vee-Rex said:

I used those other QBs to illustrate how your statement was a flimsy argument, while pointing out the hypocrisy in your posts. You're the first one that's eager to start dropping other QBs names in this thread, or have you forgotten that already?

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My statement was not a flimsy argument. Just going off the stats and saying that's enough to win is very misleading.

You think the numbers should be good enough for QBs to avoid being criticized and that's not the case.

Baker had 4 opportunities to get the ball in the endzone on Sunday in situations that would've put the game out of reach and he opted to go a different route. That has nothing to do with other QB's.

CBBI said:

In a win or go home scenario if Baker plays his best? Sure. They can beat anyone.

Is Baker capable of going on that kind of heater 4 times in 5 weeks against four of the league's best teams? Seems unlikely, but Flacco never showed that ability either and he caught fire and did it. So who knows?

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He certainly didn't need to in Pittsburgh last year.

If he's going to need to be a clutch hero in every single playoff game then I don't have faith he'll succeed. But if he's as good as you said on 1st and 2nd down then I don't think that kind of playoff run will be required. Maybe 1 or 2 late, game-winning drives, but certainly not 4.

Los216 said:

My statement was not a flimsy argument. Just going off the stats and saying that's enough to win is very misleading.

You think the numbers should be good enough for QBs to avoid being criticized and that's not the case.

Baker had 4 opportunities to get the ball in the endzone on Sunday in situations that would've put the game out of reach and he opted to go a different route. That has nothing to do with other QB's.

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Here you go:

Worst case scenario. Watson gets cleared legally and doesn’t get punished by the league. Baker continues to look skiddish and Watson is ready to return to the field.

What do you do?

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Los216 said:

I know I'm going in on Baker this morning but if Case Keenum plays yesterday instead of Baker we easily score 30 points. Odell has 150+ yards and 3 TD's. The game isn't close

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You hadn't made a single post in this thread after games 1 and 2 (Baker's best games), but right after the Vikings game you explode into this thread. Your 3rd post you're already bringing up Watson's name. Then you started talking about bringing Keenum in. Then you started talking about trading for Sam Darnold.

Sorry but you of all people don't get to say, "We're not talking about other QBs here." when you've made posts like this already.