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Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons
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I'mWithDan
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There is no way I am paying Mayfield $30 million a year relative to what we have seen. None.
The Browns would be better off flying by the seat of their pants and grabbing some serviceable vet that has performed at a similar level.
I think people really undersell how wholly average Mayfield has been relative to the league. The only answer you ever get is "Well the last X games, he was the #X leading passer".
More than half the starting QB's in the league can do what he is doing, relative to the offensive scheme and the personnel around him. There's already a few vet QB's who will be available that can provide what Mayfield has provided, at a far, far lower dollar figure.
People may have a strong reaction to this.......but if my option with Mayfield is pay him $30 million a year or he won't be playing for us, I am just going out and signing Jimmy G or Fitz for 1 year, $10 million.......and buying myself some more time, while likely getting above league average QB play, and waiting for an opportunity like Wilson or someone else like him.
The Rams just did this same thing with Goff, that we are being asked to do with Mayfield and it cost them (2) 1sts and a 3rd, just to get off that deal and replace him with a good veteran QB. They didn't even get a younger guy out of that mess.
I'm happy for Mayfield to come back on his $18 mil, 1 year prove it contract. But I need a season of the QB play he showed later in 2020 to have any confidence in giving him $30 million a year moving forward.
Peachtree
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How Will Baker Mayfield’s Injury-Marred Season Impact the Browns’ Extension Decision?
Cleveland came into this season still uncertain about the team’s future with Mayfield. Now, six games in and with Mayfield out this week, the team seems to have more questions than answers.
www.theringer.com
bob2the2nd
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10 million?! the browns back up quarter back makes 6 million. sorry man, you have no idea what the market is for a starting QB in the NFL right now. Jimmy G who you want to sign for 10 million, currently makes an average of 27.5 on his contract.
You can make up your own numbers all day, but they arent inline with reality, they arent even close.
The lowest paid QB, not on a rookie contract that was signed to actually start games for more than just 1 year makes 25 million. (im leaving out big ben who reduced his salary to 15 million to save the steelers from cap hell). However if your grand plan is to sign a QB for 1 year so you can tank in hopes of drafting another QB go for it. But me thinks the browns dont want to start the process all over again.
ETA: the browns have two options. Sign Baker to a new contract in the 30 million range, or trade him for another QB. However the only QB that I see available, that fits the browns timeline at all is wilson.
bob2the2nd
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Rodgers turns 38 during this season. You think he has 3 more years AFTER this season?
ETA: I htink you can get 1 maybe 2 good years out of Rodgers, I just dont think its worth giving up 5+ years of Mayfield for 2 good years of Rodgers.
If the browns are trading Mayfield and a lot of picks I would rather its for a QB that will stick around for more than a couple of years
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There is literally only 3 options. Keep baker and sign him to an extension. Trade for Watson or trade for Wilson that’s literally it. Any other option doesn’t improve this team. Watson is soon about to be in Miami so I’m reality 2 options. Up until Baker hurt his shoulder he was playing excellent and basically picking up where he left off last year. So whether some of you like it or not baker is not a bad QB. He got hurt and then started playing shitty just like anyone with a torn labrum would smh
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Seems like we all know that Baker's shoulder is going to require surgery. Cartilidge doesn't "just heal" with rest. But torn cartilidge isn't exactly a big problem in his non-throwing arm unless it's causing the joint to lock up. He can probably wait to get surgery in the off season if he doesn't damage it again. That's how it went with my knee at least
But we know the shoulder popped out a couple times, so there almost has to be some damaged tendons & ligaments in there. That's more of the problem right now because it's going to cause a lot of swelling and pain and limit his strength in that arm. That looked to me like the reason why he wasn't able to fall gracefully last week. He tried to break his fall with his left arm, the joint had no strength, and his humerous started moving in his shoulder joint like it was playing with an orange and brown colored popit toy, not because of the labrum tear, but because of the tendon & muscle damage around the labrum.
Sounds like best case is the swelling goes down by Halloween and he's got enough strength back that he's able to play without a big risk of injury. Then he makes it through the year and gets a few arthroscopic sutures in the offseason with a 3-6 month recovery time. If Keenum looks decent tonight, maybe they keep Baker out 2-3 weeks.
But we know the shoulder popped out a couple times, so there almost has to be some damaged tendons & ligaments in there. That's more of the problem right now because it's going to cause a lot of swelling and pain and limit his strength in that arm. That looked to me like the reason why he wasn't able to fall gracefully last week. He tried to break his fall with his left arm, the joint had no strength, and his humerous started moving in his shoulder joint like it was playing with an orange and brown colored popit toy, not because of the labrum tear, but because of the tendon & muscle damage around the labrum.
Sounds like best case is the swelling goes down by Halloween and he's got enough strength back that he's able to play without a big risk of injury. Then he makes it through the year and gets a few arthroscopic sutures in the offseason with a 3-6 month recovery time. If Keenum looks decent tonight, maybe they keep Baker out 2-3 weeks.
ShawnKempIsMyDad
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Nothing about Kevin Love is important.
I'mWithDan
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You are inferring a lot from what I said here. I said the Browns can sign someone who is a lot cheaper, on a shorter contract, who can produce at a similar level. I also could care less what Jimmy G makes now. There's no way in hell he's getting that on the open market.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Bridgewater contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
I thought a QB couldn't be signed for $10 million? Are you arguing that none of these guys signed to be the starter?
Yes, Bridgewater, Fitz and Winston........that is currently the baseline for Mayfield. I've posted a lot of research that you have tried to be snide about but the data is the data. Baker profiles like a guy that absolutely, should not be paid.
Here is an example of some of the QB data I have been looking at recently, for a project. For how EPA/play correlates to QBR. You can generate something like an EPA/play metric from the stats ESPN posts and get a really easy way to very predictively generate QBR. (r=0.979) is an insanely high correlation to QBR. I would be astonished if you could get a more predictive measure for an unknown calculation like QBR, given 1.0 is a perfect relationship.
This is incredibly useful because it then allows you to compare QBR like performance in the aggregate....so you can take a period of time, like the time Mayfield has played under Stefanski and easily approximate Mayfield's value relative to average. Why does this matter? Because performance relative to average is what you actually pay for in a data driven front office. You aren't paying a guy $30 million that you can just go out and easily find. And Mayfield's EPA/ per play data over average is just so freaking average.
If people believe in this front office and that they care about analytics.....I don't understand how anyone can look at something like this and think they are dying to pay this guy. The most astonishing thing about the chart is rookie QB seasons are typically so negative from an EPA/play perspective, relative to average. So QB's like Burrow, who have a lot of rookie performance in this metric and STILL are ahead of Mayfield is pretty sobering. Herbert (vomit). Mayfield is worse than someone like Bridgewater for example.......who most on this board would wrongfully laugh you out of the room if you said we should simply just sign him over Mayfield.
Stuff like this is just the reality. Relative to the league average, Baker is just not a guy anyone should be rushing to pay.
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ShawnKempIsMyDad
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I think Rodgers does have more than three years left, but I don't like him for other reasons. I like Mayfield, but if we could flip him for Wilson, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I realize we'd need to trade other pieces as well to make it work. Just sayin'.
bob2the2nd
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You are inferring a lot from what I said here. I said the Browns can sign someone who is a lot cheaper, on a shorter contract, who can produce at a similar level. I also could care less what Jimmy G makes now. There's no way in hell he's getting that on the open market.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.www.spotrac.com
Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy Bridgewater contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.
I thought a QB couldn't be signed for $10 million? Are you arguing that none of these guys signed to be the starter?
Yes, Bridgewater, Fitz and Winston........that is currently the baseline for Mayfield. I've posted a lot of research that you have tried to be snide about but the data is the data. Baker profiles like a guy that absolutely, should not be paid.
Here is an example of some of the QB data I have been looking at recently, for a project. For how EPA/play correlates to QBR. You can generate something like an EPA/play metric from the stats ESPN posts and get a really easy way to very predictively generate QBR. (r=0.979) is an insanely high correlation to QBR. I would be astonished if you could get a more predictive measure for an unknown calculation like QBR, given 1.0 is a perfect relationship.
View attachment 6794
This is incredibly useful because it then allows you to compare QBR like performance in the aggregate....so you can take a period of time, like the time Mayfield has played under Stefanski and easily approximate Mayfield's value relative to average. Why does this matter? Because performance relative to average is what you actually pay for in a data driven front office. You aren't paying a guy $30 million that you can just go out and easily find. And Mayfield's EPA/ per play data over average is just so freaking average.
View attachment 6796
If people believe in this front office and that they care about analytics.....I don't understand how anyone can look at something like this and think they are dying to pay this guy. The most astonishing thing about the chart is rookie QB seasons are typically so negative from an EPA/play perspective, relative to average. So QB's like Burrow, who have a lot of rookie performance in this metric and STILL are ahead of Mayfield is pretty sobering. Herbert (vomit). Mayfield is worse than someone like Bridgewater for example.......who most on this board would wrongfully laugh you out of the room if you said we should simply just sign him over Mayfield.
Stuff like this is just the reality. Relative to the league average, Baker is just not a guy anyone should be rushing to pay.
So its really cool that you have your own way of judging QBs, I love it. You have now posted various versions of it at least a half a dozen times this week. Its really cool.
However you are missing the core concept. ANY QUARTERBACK is going to want 25 million/year to be your long term starter at QB. It absolutely doesnt matter if its mickey mouse, case keenum, or Baker mayfield. Yes you might be able to get away with a 1 year rental at 10-15/million a year to go sign whoever. However, the minute you want to commit to them long term you are back to looking at 25+ million/year. So we go back to is Baker mayfield better than Bridgwater/Fitz/Jimmy G long term. yes, emphatically yes. Its not close yes. So whats the point if you are just going to get a worse player for maybe a small savings
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I'mWithDan
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Yes. You post various versions of it, with different data sets / sources, to see if they are saying the same thing. Stress test it. The above is an ESPN data source. Maybe you trust their data? Maybe you don't? People seem to like QBR as an approximation of QBR play......this is an aggregate look that correlates to QBR, using ESPN's EPA data they generate. It says what the other data sources that track things like this say......that Baker is an incredibly replaceable QB relative to average. Unless your argument is that all these data sources are wrong, what is the actual performance based argument for paying him?
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I would caution using only stats to judge who who is the better QB. People argued that Stafford wasn't an upgrade on Goff because of these statistics, so the eyes have to be used somewhat.
Baker will happily play on his 5th year extension, and the Browns are probably going to give it to him. Hell, if he'd accept 20-25, I bet the Browns would do it too.
Baker will happily play on his 5th year extension, and the Browns are probably going to give it to him. Hell, if he'd accept 20-25, I bet the Browns would do it too.