Replacing Baker Mayfield: Poll

Vee-Rex said:

Not defending Baker here but I think it's a bit disingenuous to use a season accumulated PBWR to describe how the offensive line has been in recent weeks. Conklin played almost half the games played this year - where the line is right now is not where it was when he was playing. It's like if the Packers were graded to be #1 in QB play (random BS stat) and lose Aaron Rodgers for the 2nd half of the year, and in week 16 they're like, "Well they're still #1 in QB play!"

Hance/Wills/Hutson haven't been HORRIBLE (only several plays here and there), but no way the line we're trotting out there right now is #1 and it shows.

Now, I only mention this because it's interesting looking back at Baker's career. The "good" Baker has always performed with strong tackle play.

Looking back at 2018 where G-Rob and Chris Hubbard were pretty decent down the stretch, Baker played well.

Then in 2019 where we had turnstiles at tackle, Baker played badly.

Then in 2020 where Wills and Conklin did well, Baker played well.

Now in 2021 where our tackle situation is in flux (and both Wills and Conklin when they DO play are outside top 10 in PBWR), Baker is playing badly.

NOW I'M NOT ABSOLVING BAKER OF BLAME. <<<<< I'm all for upgrading if we can. I'm just wondering in the event that we roll Baker out in 2022 if we need to try to invest a bit more in our tackles, since I feel like I'm seeing a pattern and would want to give him the best chance possible to look more like 2018 and 2020 in 2022.

Sure, I was like SCREW BAKER too during the game. But it's the holiday season and his play during the game doesn't change my stance on how we should approach the offseason. The emotional tilts here are heartfelt for sure, but one game shouldn't have someone deciding they want to cut him for a lesser player.

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FiveThous said:

Pittsburgh has some very fun WRs and TEs, could you blame any of these QBs looking to move teams for wanting to go there?

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PIP said:

Derek Carr with Stefanski would be perfect

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Damage said:

I'm all for exploring options. Baker is not some irreplaceable asset but I'm failing to find an upgrade. I also have zero interest in blowing it up and trotting out a rookie or a retread vet.

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Vee-Rex said:

I'd be okay with a swing for Carr. However, I'm nowhere near as confident in that he would be able to get us above the hump as I am with someone like Rodgers or Watson. In fact, given our history I'd be half-expecting things to go south, overhyped fans extremely disappointed, and Carr to abnormally perform worse than he did for the Raiders. That's just the way it has gone, heh.

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Man Called X said:

If I'm the perfect level of drunk + stoned, and all the people in the lobby are shit, I'm a pretty solid Apex and Warzone player.

Every other time, I'm trash.

Hi guys, I'm the Baker Mayfield of video games.

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Damage said:

Throw in a decapitated arm and its not gonna be easy.

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Triplethreat said:

Derek Carr and Baker are like equivalent players lol

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CBBI said:

Derek Carr
-2018: 27th in QBR, 18th in QB Rating, 20th in YPA, 21st in DYAR, 22nd in DVOA, 25th in Rush DVOA, 30th in PFF Pass Blocking-
-2019: 10th in QBR, 9th in QB Rating, 9th in YPA, 6th in DYAR, 8th in DVOA, 18th in Rush DVOA, 15th in PFF Pass Blocking
-2020: 11th in QBR, 10th in QB Rating, 7th in YPA, 7th in DYAR, 9th in DVOA, 24th in Rush DVOA, 17th in PFF Pass Blocking
-2021: 10th in QBR, 11th in QB Rating, 5th in YPA, 8th in DYAR, 10th in DVOA, 28th in Rush DVOA, 23rd in PFF Pass Blocking

Baker Mayfield
-2018: 23rd in QBR, 19th in QB Rating, 12th in YPA, 12th in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, 17th in Rush DVOA, 3rd in PFF Pass Blocking
-2019: 19th in QBR, 31st in QB Rating, 16th in YPA, 25th in DYAR, 25th in DVOA, 14th in Rush DVOA, 17th in PFF Pass Blocking
-2020: 10th in QBR, 15th in QB Rating, 17th in YPA, 16th in DYAR, 17th in DVOA, 7th in Rush DVOA, 1st in PFF Pass Blocking
-2021: 25th in QBR, 25th in QB Rating, 11th in YPA, 18th in DYAR, 17th in DVOA, 5th in Rush DVOA, 10th in PFF Pass Blocking

And just for fun...

Carr 23 4th quarter comebacks and 28 game winning drives out of 125 total games (22%) and 55 wins (51%).
Mayfield 6th 4th quarter comebacks and 7 game winning drives out of 59 total games and (12%) and 29 wins (24%).

A lot of numbers to digest here, but over the last three years Derek Carr has easily been the more productive quarterback between he and Mayfield. When you factor in that Carr over that time frame has consistently been working with a much worse running game and a much worse offensive line than Baker has been working with and it's not really a comparison. Carr is better.

Now on the flip side, the case could be made that Carr didn't truly come into his own as a QB until he his age 28 season, which is obviously an age and experience level that Baker hasn't reached yet. So could there be untapped/more consistent production in Mayfield like there was with Carr? Potentially. But you could also argue that Baker has already had the benefit of being partnered with a quality coach who runs a quality scheme after just two years in the league which Carr didn't get until five years into his career.

What you'd be hoping for with Derek Carr is the same thing the Rams believe they got with Matthew Stafford. A talented QB who is capable of more than he's shown from a team success standpoint, but has ultimately been hamstrung for years by a poor rushing attack and a poor offensive line. Get that guy in a better scheme with a better running game and a better OL and see if he can take off.

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Triplethreat said:

Would be a lot more fair to both players to compare their first 4 seasons..... now wouldn't it?

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CBBI said:

Would it though?

Because the decision the Browns could be facing this offseason wouldn't be "should we trade for rookie contract production Derek Carr?"

It's more of a two-fold question - "should we trade for 31-year old with 8 years of experience Derek Carr?" and "do we expect Baker Mayfield to get significantly better than he is now as he gets older like Carr did?"

And as I laid out in the post, Mayfield theoretically already got the massive coaching + scheme bump by getting hooked up with Stefanski in year 3 that Carr didn't get until getting hooked up with Gruden in year 5.

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