Replacing Baker Mayfield: Poll

[Triplethreat]

Love how everyone just wants to ignore the fact that Derek Carr fumbles more than any other QB

 

[Smooth]

Highly selective clustering of stats to make your point. As you know grouping this year with last year to come up with the 'Last two years' data is a cherry-picking exercise which masks Mayfield's relative effectiveness in his best year.

For what it's worth I agree with your evaluation of the offseason feelings about Baker in Berea. I don't think they just roll with Baker's fifth year and see what happens. They're now in a position with the rest of the roster that they cannot simply leave the most important position to chance. I think there will definitely be a new QB here for the 2022 season.

What’s ironic is the selectiveness of focusing on one set of production when it’s shown to be an outlier within his data sets as Browns QB..

But once again, proving my point, that there is a amnesia aspect of fans willing to overlook his largely underperforming production as a Brown because there have been stretches of production…

Yet, even with his performance last year that still isn’t enough to move his overall production over the course of several years even into respectable territory…

2020 Baker
CPOE+EPA: 10th
EPA: 9th
CPOE: 9th
Success rate: 9th
CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 18th
CPOE+EPA in 4th Q/OT: 27th

There’s no hiding from the data, it’s just unknown to me why there is a clinging onto a small subset of outlier of data when the bigger picture tells a different story..

Even the selective subset that is 2020 is consistent with what we‘ve seen: he can be good when everything is operating perfect but still underperforms when the Browns need him the most (3rd/4th downs and 4th Q/OT).. Even his best year, he’s a below average performer in crucial situations..

Baker underperformance this year is on levels we haven’t seen before but is closer to what he has been then over the course of his career than what he showed in 2020…

 

[Smooth]

Love how everyone just wants to ignore the fact that Derek Carr fumbles more than any other QB

Since you believe it’s best to look at the first four years of production and not the most recent, Derek Carr fumbled 33 times his first 62 games in the league compared to Baker’s 27 in 59 games (with two games left)…

The difference being Baker has thrown 54 INTs in his 59 games compared to Carr threw 44 INTs in his first 62 games.. 3 out of the last 4 years Baker’s INT% would be all 3 be the highest in Carr’s career…

So Carr was responsible for 77 TOs in first 4 years with Baker accounting for 81 TOs..

Move that to last 4 years, Carr has been responsible for 81 TOs which is equivalent to Baker’s 81 TOs..

Problem being, Baker’s TOs have come with middling QB production whereas with Carr you at least have seen positive production with it relating to passing stats.. Carr may fumble slightly more than Baker but doesn’t throw nearly as many INTs..

 

[Lee]

Love how everyone just wants to ignore the fact that Derek Carr fumbles more than any other QB

 

[Bkerr02]

What’s ironic is the selectiveness of focusing on one set of production when it’s shown to be an outlier within his data sets as Browns QB..

But once again, proving my point, that there is a amnesia aspect of fans willing to overlook his largely underperforming production as a Brown because there have been stretches of production…

Yet, even with his performance last year that still isn’t enough to move his overall production over the course of several years even into respectable territory…

2020 Baker
CPOE+EPA: 10th
EPA: 9th
CPOE: 9th
Success rate: 9th
CPOE+EPA on 3rd/4th downs: 18th
CPOE+EPA in 4th Q/OT: 27th

There’s no hiding from the data, it’s just unknown to me why there is a clinging onto a small subset of outlier of data when the bigger picture tells a different story..

Even the selective subset that is 2020 is consistent with what we‘ve seen: he can be good when everything is operating perfect but still underperforms when the Browns need him the most (3rd/4th downs and 4th Q/OT).. Even his best year, he’s a below average performer in crucial situations..

Baker underperformance this year is on levels we haven’t seen before but is closer to what he has been then over the course of his career than what he showed in 2020…

That’s bc it was the first year in the system. The first year was Bakers rookie season so you obviously know it was going to be up and down. The second year was the Freddie kitchens shit show. Can you really hold that against Baker with the way that went down? Last year was obviously a good year, this year he got hurt in week 2 and hasn’t been the same. So yes there is context to those stats and people hang on to that bc it’s the current system, and he was completely healthy etc. the one thing I’ll 100% blame Baker on is trying to tackle someone on a damn int. Just stupid

 

[ShawnKempIsMyDad]

I don't wanna he diddly poo about having WR's for Baker. We're not about to sit here on Al Gore's internet and flip the narrative now that it's obvious to anyone who's been watching that Baker is not the guy.

We spent the whole first half of this season listening to people claim that Baker doesn't need a true #1 and he's better suited to distribute the ball to multiple receivers. We had all of this DPJ hype coming into the season after training camp. All we heard was how Jarvis Landry was the heart and soul of the team and that another receiver who is no longer here was a cancer to the team and a detriment to Baker.

We've heard every single narrative to defend this dude. The play calling has been the latest hot button, This comes after claims that Baker is being handcuffed by Kevin Stefanski. We've seen the O-Line get shredded after every subpar QB performance and honestly given all of the shuffling they've had to do on this O-Line I'd say they are not a concern at all.

People have attacked each and every receiver on this team at various points during the season. Our TE's have taken turns getting their share of "blame" too. We've been back and forth on injuries all season.

On top of all of that we the fans have also been un-fairly thrust into the crosshairs by our QB because of his shitty play. How many freaking weeks have the fans had to defend their own fandom because of our emotional ass QB?

Throughout this whole thing I've held off on flat out saying that Baker Mayfield sucks because I don't think that he sucks. I just think that he's average. At this point he might not even be average. He could just be a QB that can only succeed in a specific situation or else he'll look like a backup.

I really do think that we need to move on from this dude and I hope all of the people who laughed at some of the names of potential replacements can see now that maybe they overrated Baker and he's not even as good as some of the Andy Dalton's and Matt Ryan's of the world. It was laughable that Jamies Winston could be an option if we move on from Baker but at this point NO would be doing us a favor. Jimmy G is on a different level of QB play than Baker Mayfield. That's a fact. There's no argument that can even be made there.

Go into this offseason and resolve the QB position as quickly and efficiently as we can. Get our new guy in here so that KS can get him in sync and roll into next year with a real shot at living up to our real potential.

You’re right. It’s not the receivers. Mayfield has to throw to them and not the other team to prove the WRs are the problem.

 

[DirtyDan]

Does Wilson have a no trade clause?

The Browns are a good team that can a make serious leap with an upgrade at QB. You could probably say the same about the 49ers, Broncos, Dolphins, and Steelers though ...

Carr/Wilson/Rogers/Watson will have a lot of power in where they end up and I think it may be hard for them to pick Cleveland with no prior connection to the team. Browns would have to woo one of them over with a large extension and perhaps offer an extra year or two that they wouldn't normally give considering age/liability. This offseason has so much smoke, it feels like we're about to have an NBA style shift of top guys or maybe nothing at all.

 

[Bkerr02]

Does Wilson have a no trade clause?

The Browns are a good team that can a make serious leap with an upgrade at QB. You could probably say the same about the 49ers, Broncos, Dolphins, and Steelers though ...

Carr/Wilson/Rogers/Watson will have a lot of power in where they end up and I think it may be hard for them to pick Cleveland with no prior connection to the team. Browns would have to woo one of them over with a large extension and perhaps offer an extra year or two that they wouldn't normally give considering age/liability. This offseason has so much smoke, it feels like we're about to have an NBA style shift of top guys or maybe nothing at all.

I don’t see Carr leaving LV. Wilson and Watson both have no trade clauses and can pretty much pick there teams. Watson is almost a shoe in to go to Miami. Rodgers if He does leave is going to either Denver or Pitt, and I honestly believe he ends up staying in GB. They seemed to mend a lot of the issues Rodgers had with the organization, I think there is a pretty good chance he doesn’t end up leaving. Wilson on the other hand is definitely gone. Where he ends up I don’t think anyone knows. So pretty much the only realistic option will be Wilson

 

[I'mWithDan]

Highly selective clustering of stats to make your point. As you know grouping this year with last year to come up with the 'Last two years' data is a cherry-picking exercise which masks Mayfield's relative effectiveness in his best year.

In that best year, he was #13 in the league in EPA Over Average. Which is entirely the point here for me.

In his absolute apex season......a season unlike any of his other 3, he was still just a borderline QB1, high end QB2.

These are the debates we seem to always get in around here.......like that larger career cross section of time is unfair.

Even in his best year, he didn't land in the top 1/3rd of the league in QB play when you baseline him against average.

Was he good? Sure......but not to beat a dead horse, the bar is so damn high at QB.

As a fan base, our interpretation of good QB play is so skewed by all of the past failures, that we can't believe the best QB we've had is maybe not good enough.

 

[DirtyDan]

I don’t see Carr leaving LV. Wilson and Watson both have no trade clauses and can pretty much pick there teams. Watson is almost a shoe in to go to Miami. Rodgers if He does leave is going to either Denver or Pitt, and I honestly believe he ends up staying in GB. They seemed to mend a lot of the issues Rodgers had with the organization, I think there is a pretty good chance he doesn’t end up leaving. Wilson on the other hand is definitely gone. Where he ends up I don’t think anyone knows. So pretty much the only realistic option will be Wilson

LV is stupid and have been trying to push Carr out of town for a while now to cover for their front office mismanagement.

Miami can be outbid, but it would take Watson waiving his no trade clause to come here. If the Browns actually had interest in him, then I think they would have worked harder to get him at the deadline. It's possible they try to communicate with him about coming here since the offseason is around the corner and Baker has significant question marks in his game.

I have a feeling Rogers' decision will depend on the postseason. He's going to have a Lebron-like level of mobility if the Packers don't make it to the conference championship/maybe superbowl. Pitsburgh and Denver would automatically be contenders with Rogers and give him an unlimited amount of autonomy. Browns could at least attempt to meet with him if he wants out.

In every situation, I'm thinking the same thing. We'll have to see.

 

[Vee-Rex]

There’s no hiding from the data, it’s just unknown to me why there is a clinging onto a small subset of outlier of data when the bigger picture tells a different story..

I think because Baker's best stretch is literally the last stretch he had before injury.

I don't want to get into all the injury politics and what not and should he or should he not be playing or is he a leader or is he sensitive or blah blah blah. If that subset of data was in the beginning of 2019, or end of 2019 then I think you'd see a more collective "Baker is trash" mindset from the fanbase. But he was playing at a high level in the last stretch 2020 and that cannot be denied, and it ~seemed~ to carry into this year before his injury.

I think the hope that Baker possibly improved enough to be a top 10 QB (QBR, PFF, CPoE) and regressed in 2021 due to injury is probably why people aren't eager to just dump him for a Cam Newton or Mitch Trubisky or insert whatever retread. Because at that point it doesn't matter if he was a prime Jamarcus Russell prior to that - people don't want to throw away that possibility for a retread we've already got 8-10+ years worth of data on. Give us Rodgers - sure, but any lateral movements is met with hesitancy, understandably so.

Hope that kind of explains why people are looking at that subset of data a bit differently than they would any other.

 

[CBBI]

In that best year, he was #13 in the league in EPA Over Average. Which is entirely the point here for me.

In his absolute apex season......a season unlike any of his other 3, he was still just a borderline QB1, high end QB2.

These are the debates we seem to always get in around here.......like that larger career cross section of time is unfair.

Even in his best year, he didn't land in the top 1/3rd of the league in QB play when you baseline him against average.

Was he good? Sure......but not to beat a dead horse, the bar is so damn high at QB.

As a fan base, our interpretation of good QB play is so skewed by all of the past failures, that we can't believe the best QB we've had is maybe not good enough.

It more or less breaks down like this.

2018: Below Average
2019: Bad
2020: Above Average
2021: Bad

Even if you want to completely write off 2018 (rookie + organizational instability), 2019 (inept coaching) and 2021 (injuries) and laser focus in on 2020.

If you want to assume that Baker will return to his 2020 level of production, isn't he's still the only the 7th or 8th best QB in his own conference? And that's with an elite running game and an elite offensive line compared to the rest of the league.

Is there going to be a no questions asked better option for 2022? Maybe, maybe not. But all the Browns are really doing is delaying the inevitable if 2020 is the best Baker can be.

 

[Damage]

Given that Baker has played like a bottom 5-7 QB this year - the second time in three years he's done this - why would switching QBs automatically mean blowing it up?

Like... if they make a switch, it *could* get worse, but it could also get better, right?

Besides these wishcasts I keep seeing (Rodgers, Russ, Luck lol) name me one QB that isn't a retread and/or that would make the situation better. Is your answer Derek Carr? Cool!

• I was one of a handful of dudes who wanted to draft him in '14 and not Johnny fucking Manziel, so I have been a fan for a while.
• Carr is pretty much tapped out in terms of growth. He will be 31 (that's fine) in his 8th year in the league. He is what he is: 12-18th ranked QB who has flaws but overall is a pretty good QB and a tremendous leader.
• He's avg about 24Tds, 10 INTs per year whiel having spotty OL play and a lack of weapons (up until this year until shit went haywire).
• Can he make the Browns better? Sure. I also think this season is so difficult to grade Baker on due to him playing with a broken arm all season, COVID, revolving door at OL, etc.

I'm not against Carr. I just don't know what it really does to move the needle, especially when you factor in his price tag vs Bakers and our upcoming FAs (Ward, Clowney to name a few). In other words, if you consider Baker & Carr a wash as I do, the determining factors in my mind are 1. $$$ 2. System Fit and 3. Leadership.

Carr checks 2 of those boxes, Baker checks 2 possibly 3 (everyone says he's a great leader but you also get these leaks from teammates on SM).

 

[CBBI]

Besides these wishcasts I keep seeing (Rodgers, Russ, Luck lol) name me one QB that isn't a retread and/or that would make the situation better. Is your answer Derek Carr? Cool!

• I was one of a handful of dudes who wanted to draft him in '14 and not Johnny fucking Manziel, so I have been a fan for a while.
• Carr is pretty much tapped out in terms of growth. He will be 31 (that's fine) in his 8th year in the league. He is what he is: 12-18th ranked QB who has flaws but overall is a pretty good QB and a tremendous leader.
• He's avg about 24Tds, 10 INTs per year whiel having spotty OL play and a lack of weapons (up until this year until shit went haywire).
• Can he make the Browns better? Sure. I also think this season is so difficult to grade Baker on due to him playing with a broken arm all season, COVID, revolving door at OL, etc.

Carr in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has played at a notch slightly higher than Baker did in 2020. For the last three years Carr has played like roughly the 10th best NFL QB on average and Baker was roughly the 15th best in 2020.

10th vs. 15th is certainly not a massive difference, but it's still a little better. And that was with Carr working with a much worse running game and much worse OL than Baker was working with.

He's flawed, but the 2022 Browns would be the best offense Carr's ever played in by a mile.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Carr in 2019, 2020 and 2021 has played at a notch slightly higher than Baker did in 2020. For the last three years Carr has played like roughly the 10th best NFL QB on average and Baker was roughly the 15th best in 2020.

10th vs. 15th is certainly not a massive difference, but it's still a little better. And that was with Carr working with a much worse running game and much worse OL than Baker was working with.

He's flawed, but the 2022 Browns would be the best offense Carr's ever played in by a mile.

As of right now the Browns 2022 receivers are probably dead last in the league.