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Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

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sailfish said:
Why is Josh Allen an outlier? ALL the tools were there- size, mobility, arm strength, you name it. The kid also is a hard worker, to boot, so it's not like we're talking about JaMarcus Russell here.

Clearly, people got too hung up on his completion percentage in college. In reality, it looks like this was a guy who had a poor supporting cast at Wyoming, who was trying to do too much, in an effort to help his team win. Don't get me wrong, he has had some good coaching and has learned to harness that big arm of his & develop touch.

There were factions in the 2018 draft. Most people went with the Darnold faction. The others were spread amongst the Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, & Jackson factions. The leadup to the 2018 draft got very nasty, as people argued for their candidate, while, at the same time, disparaging other candidates, namely Allen, in an effort to elevate 'their guy.' No candidate was more divisive than Allen and I wonder if Browns fans would've even given him a fair shot had he been drafted in 2018. That really says something about our fanbase, how desperate we are, and how we think we hold all the answers.

Josh Allen deserved better than to be drafted by the Browns, where he would've been hated from day 1, and he's in a much better place. I, for one, am happy for him. Meanwhile, the dysfunction in Cleveland continues..
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3 of the best QBs in the AFC were all outliers based on this- Mahomes, Allen and Jackson. Each ended up somewhere the coaching staff indentified their strengths and adapted to them, instead of trying to force them into their own schemes. Then each of them blossomed. Since it looks like Bake is here next year either way, maybe Stef and his GM need to do the analytics on those situations and see what they can learn before all is done with the Lil Gunslinger.
 
Miss me with the notion that Baker Mayfield and only Baker Mayfield was the only QB in that draft who could've had success here. There's nothing special about Baker that the other QB's don't possess. He's already shown that he has leadership and immaturity issues too. Physically he's not in the same league as Allen and Jackson.

So what exactly is it about Baker that makes people so sure that he is the only QB in that draft who would've had success here? Fans are just getting caught up in the idea that we had our guy and they're forgetting that the GM who drafted him and supposedly scouted him before we hired him is not gone.

As soon as there was smoke about Dorsey choosing Baker over the other QB's when he did his independent scouting people jumped on board with the football guy for making the decision.

Now people want to rewrite history and pretend like there weren't plenty of us who wanted other QB's. There was more love for Rosen and Darnold in here than Baker. In fact, other than Lamar Jackson who everybody knows I campaigned for, Baker was the least favorable of the 5 QB's that year.

Stop acting like we don't remember.

THE NORTH REMEMBERS

arya-the-north-remembers.gif
 
sailfish said:
Why is Josh Allen an outlier? ALL the tools were there- size, mobility, arm strength, you name it. The kid also is a hard worker, to boot, so it's not like we're talking about JaMarcus Russell here.

Clearly, people got too hung up on his completion percentage in college. In reality, it looks like this was a guy who had a poor supporting cast at Wyoming, who was trying to do too much, in an effort to help his team win. Don't get me wrong, he has had some good coaching and has learned to harness that big arm of his & develop touch.

There were factions in the 2018 draft. Most people went with the Darnold faction. The others were spread amongst the Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, & Jackson factions. The leadup to the 2018 draft got very nasty, as people argued for their candidate, while, at the same time, disparaging other candidates, namely Allen, in an effort to elevate 'their guy.' No candidate was more divisive than Allen and I wonder if Browns fans would've even given him a fair shot had he been drafted in 2018. That really says something about our fanbase, how desperate we are, and how we think we hold all the answers.

Josh Allen deserved better than to be drafted by the Browns, where he would've been hated from day 1, and he's in a much better place. I, for one, am happy for him. Meanwhile, the dysfunction in Cleveland continues..
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Allen is an outlier because of his huge jump in accuracy numbers. His rookie year he was at 52% and now he is at 64% (last year he was at 70%). We arent talking small gains in accuracy we are talking HUGE leaps. No idea if it still stands but college accuracy used to be very closely associated with NFL accuracy. It was unlikely that an inaccurate QB would become super accurate.

I dont have the time or effort but I imagine if you actually went through and looked you would see less than 5 QBs take the sort of leap that allen has as far as accuracy goes
 
bob2the2nd said:
Allen is an outlier because of his huge jump in accuracy numbers. His rookie year he was at 52% and now he is at 64% (last year he was at 70%). We arent talking small gains in accuracy we are talking HUGE leaps. No idea if it still stands but college accuracy used to be very closely associated with NFL accuracy. It was unlikely that an inaccurate QB would become super accurate.

I dont have the time or effort but I imagine if you actually went through and looked you would see less than 5 QBs take the sort of leap that allen has as far as accuracy goes
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This is leading back towards the discussion and argument I had with people leading up to the 2018 draft when I argued that college completion percentages were overblown. Brett Favre had a low college completion percentage and he's an NFL Hall of Famer. Like Favre, Josh Allen had the raw tools to work with and he has put them together to become a top NFL QB. The Browns drafted a guy with those sterling college stats, in Baker Mayfield, and look where that's gotten us. Scouting is looking beyond the numbers.
 
Amherstcavsfan said:
Because he raised his accuracy by nearly unreal levels. He didn't go from good to great. He went from scattershot to pin point.

And you can use all the tools things you want, a QB isn't anything without an accurate arm, and he didn't have that coming out.

This just isn't true. He was trying to make hero ball plays while also missing easy throws. It wasn't all to do with his supporting cast at all.

You really believe a fanbase has anything to do with developing a QB, then I'm done here.

Either way, Josh Allen is a once in a lifetime QB development. Most other guys like him, the Christian Ponders, the RG3'S the Carson Wentz, Drew Lock, all these guys, they either flame out fast because they cannot hold up physically or they just cannot improve their ability to play QB enough.

Josh Allen is going to get a lot of people fired for drafting inaccurate tools QBs.
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I disagree. I've had this argument before. Based on what you apparently believe, QB's, like Brett Favre and Josh Allen, are total outliers who never really should've gotten an opportunity in the NFL. I suppose we should just look at completion percentages and draft the guy with the highest one, right? More 'know it all' armchair GM's....
 
sailfish said:
I disagree. I've had this argument before. Based on what you apparently believe, QB's, like Brett Favre and Josh Allen, are total outliers who never really should've gotten an opportunity in the NFL.
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Not gotten an opportunity is gaslighting. Favre was picked exactly where he should have been, the 2nd round. I can find 40 guys for ever Farve and Allen.

sailfish said:
I suppose we should just look at completion percentages and draft the guy with the highest one, right? More 'know it all' armchair GM's....
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You clearly do not understand what I'm saying and at this point are being purposefully belligerent.

You have to have NFL quality accuracy. Allen did not have it. He created it over time. Guys with his profile almost never succeed. Just because the player was the right choice doesn't mean you went about the process the right way.

Literally confirmation bias.
 
macbdog said:
3 of the best QBs in the AFC were all outliers based on this- Mahomes, Allen and Jackson. Each ended up somewhere the coaching staff indentified their strengths and adapted to them, instead of trying to force them into their own schemes. Then each of them blossomed. Since it looks like Bake is here next year either way, maybe Stef and his GM need to do the analytics on those situations and see what they can learn before all is done with the Lil Gunslinger.
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Most people believe that a QB is either accurate or he isn't. It's not something that can be taught.

So, we're to believe that the coaching staffs in KC, Buffalo, & Baltimore have some sort of magic dust and have done the miraculous by turning inaccurate QB's into accurate ones? If so, then we've been hiring from the wrong pool of assistants...
 
Amherstcavsfan said:
Not gotten an opportunity is gaslighting. Favre was picked exactly where he should have been, the 2nd round. I can find 40 guys for ever Farve and Allen.


You clearly do not understand what I'm saying and at this point are being purposefully belligerent.

You have to have NFL quality accuracy. Allen did not have it. He created it over time. Guys with his profile almost never succeed. Just because the player was the right choice doesn't mean you went about the process the right way.

Literally confirmation bias.
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It's ok to say you were wrong about Josh Allen. Just admit it.

Hey, I was wrong about Josh Rosen, who I liked after Allen. Few guys throw as beautiful as a ball as he does and I didn't see how that couldn't translate. However, the guy is a brainiac, but a 'know it all' turd, who has no mobility, and he doesn't seem interested in developing his talent. Rosen has been his own worst enemy, which is a shame.
 
How is Baker not an outlier then? He’s underperformed by more than Josh Allen has over performed.

Coming out of college Baker was advertised as accurate with a strong arm. His is not accurate and his throws lack touch.

Josh Allen had every physical trait. He was big, mobile, and has a very strong arm. He just wasn’t accurate.

What else is different?
 
sailfish said:
This is leading back towards the discussion and argument I had with people leading up to the 2018 draft when I argued that college completion percentages were overblown. Brett Favre had a low college completion percentage and he's an NFL Hall of Famer. Like Favre, Josh Allen had the raw tools to work with and he has put them together to become a top NFL QB. The Browns drafted a guy with those sterling college stats, in Baker Mayfield, and look where that's gotten us. Scouting is looking beyond the numbers.
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I think if you are using hall of famers in your explanation of why college stats dont matter then I think its a lost argument. to say "the greatest QBs ever were able to do something why cant __________", yeah sorry i dont buy that.

But if you really want to get into specifics Brett Farve one of the greatest QBs who ever lived increased his accuracy from college to the NFL by 7% (his junior and senior years compared to his all time average accuracy). Josh Allen on the other hand last year saw a 14% increase in accuracy between his senior year of college to his 2020 NFL accuracy, and if we are looking at this year its an 8% increase (still more than farve).

There is absolutely no reason anyone should have ever reasonably expected Josh Allen to take a such a huge leap in accuracy numbers. If you are one of those guys that predicted that Allen would do something that we have almost never seen before in the NFL, then congrats. However I still wouldnt ask you for tomorrow's lottery numbers.
 
Amherstcavsfan said:
Not gotten an opportunity is gaslighting. Favre was picked exactly where he should have been, the 2nd round. I can find 40 guys for ever Farve and Allen.


You clearly do not understand what I'm saying and at this point are being purposefully belligerent.

You have to have NFL quality accuracy. Allen did not have it. He created it over time. Guys with his profile almost never succeed. Just because the player was the right choice doesn't mean you went about the process the right way.

Literally confirmation bias.
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But weren’t there convers about Baker’s accuracy being credited to the scheme he was running in OK?
 
Too often we treat collegiate completion percentage as the only model for arguing "accuracy" as a whole.
 
AZ_ said:
Too often we treat collegiate completion percentage as the only model for arguing "accuracy" as a whole.
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Are you staying this as in you did that? Because I remember you being about the most anti Josh Allen poster on this board because of his “accuracy” issues.
 
AZ_ said:
Too often we treat collegiate completion percentage as the only model for arguing "accuracy" as a whole.
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Care to elaborate? Is this in reference to Allen?

IIRC his completion percentage was mid-50s which was bad, but there was a ton of film showing his haphazard mechanics and a ton of hilariously bad misses. He was not unfairly criticized for his accuracy. He just corrected it...by leaps and bounds like we've rarely seen before.
 
sailfish said:
It's ok to say you were wrong about Josh Allen. Just admit it.
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I was wrong to say he had 0 outcomes where he could succeed. That profile is a bad one to draft more times than not.
sailfish said:
Hey, I was wrong about Josh Rosen, who I liked after Allen. Few guys throw as beautiful as a ball as he does and I didn't see how that couldn't translate. However, the guy is a brainiac, but a 'know it all' turd, who has no mobility, and he doesn't seem interested in developing his talent. Rosen has been his own worst enemy, which is a shame.
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Rosen had his warning signs for sure. I'm not surprised that a shithead like Steve Kiem fell for him
 
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