Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

[Amherstcavsfan]

Are you staying this as in you did that? Because I remember you being about the most anti Josh Allen poster on this board because of his “accuracy” issues.

Why is accuracy in quotation marks?

 

[bob2the2nd]

How is Baker not an outlier then? He’s underperformed by more than Josh Allen has over performed.

Coming out of college Baker was advertised as accurate with a strong arm. His is not accurate and his throws lack touch.

Josh Allen had every physical trait. He was big, mobile, and has a very strong arm. He just wasn’t accurate.

What else is different?

Yes Baker is an outlier as well.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Yes Baker is an outlier as well.

Yeah, that's really the biggest disappointment. Baker really had analytical and scouting profile that says he should be a good to great QB. But so far, for whatever reason, he hasn't been able to improve almost at all, especially mentally.

 

[sailfish]

How is Baker not an outlier then? He’s underperformed by more than Josh Allen has over performed.

Coming out of college Baker was advertised as accurate with a strong arm. His is not accurate and his throws lack touch.

Josh Allen had every physical trait. He was big, mobile, and has a very strong arm. He just wasn’t accurate.

What else is different?

Interesting comparison because the Browns really went for the polar opposite of Allen, in Mayfield. That being a guy who didn't have the same measurables, but who had all the fancy advanced stats & production in college. It was the finished product vs the guy with the untapped potential/upside. It was analytics vs traditional scouting. The Browns went for the finished product, who they likely saw as the safer pick, and it has obviously backfired on them.

The irony is John Dorsey was seen as a scouting guy who loathed analytics. It's why I don't think you can put too much stock on college production and stats in evaluating a QB for the NFL.

 

[Los216]

Interesting comparison because the Browns went for the polar opposite of Allen, in Mayfield. That being a guy who didn't have the same measurables, but who had all the fancy advanced stats & production in college. It was the finished product vs the guy with the untapped potential/upside. It was analytics vs traditional scouting. The Browns went for the finished product, who they likely saw as the safer pick, and it has obviously backfired on them.

The irony is John Dorsey was seen as a scouting guy who loathed analytics. It's why I don't think you can put too much stock on college production and stats in evaluating a QB for the NFL.

But Baker played in a friendly system that we saw Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts both thrive in too. So it’s not like Baker was the sole reason for that production. He played behind that huge O-Line at OK too. What happened in that Georgia semi final game when they pressured him?

 

[Triplethreat]

Why is accuracy in quotation marks?

Because he clearly doesn’t have that issue anymore.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Interesting comparison because the Browns really went for the polar opposite of Allen, in Mayfield. That being a guy who didn't have the same measurables, but who had all the fancy advanced stats & production in college. It was the finished product vs the guy with the untapped potential/upside. It was analytics vs traditional scouting. The Browns went for the finished product, who they likely saw as the safer pick, and it has obviously backfired on them.

The irony is John Dorsey was seen as a scouting guy who loathed analytics. It's why I don't think you can put too much stock on college production and stats in evaluating a QB for the NFL.

I would also point out that it was said numerous times that both the Analytic guys and Dorsey were on board with Baker

 

[buzzdog]

Yeah, that's really the biggest disappointment. Baker really had analytical and scouting profile that says he should be a good to great QB. But so far, for whatever reason, he hasn't been able to improve almost at all, especially mentally.

Not only did he fail to improve. Seems to me he regressed badly since even his rookie season with that disaster of a team.

Now he has a ton of room for improvement over the most recent season, but only because the bar has been lowered because he regressed so badly.

Even taking injuries into account, just the sheer level of mental regression is what needs to be somehow overcome, and a lot of that seems to be due to an oversized ego that refuses to take the kind of coaching on basic mechanics, etc. that is needed to move forward. So it gets into the psychological issues of ego, humility, stubbornness, that may be holding him back from improving both mechanically and also from the neck up. I think the guy needs a sports psychologist before he even thinks about the physical aspects of rehab.

Then he needs a really good quarterback development coach to re-work his footwork (again) and his throwing platforms. Then he needs a different kind of coach to tear down and reconstruct his pre-snap reads, the flow of his eyes through progressions, you name it. All mental aspects of playing the position.

Basically he needs a complete, 100% make-over. Tear himself down to the studs and start over from a position of complete humility and openness to changing basic tendencies and horrible habits. That's his only chance to end up as anything more than a mediocre QB.

 

[sailfish]

I think if you are using hall of famers in your explanation of why college stats dont matter then I think its a lost argument. to say "the greatest QBs ever were able to do something why cant __________", yeah sorry i dont buy that.

But if you really want to get into specifics Brett Farve one of the greatest QBs who ever lived increased his accuracy from college to the NFL by 7% (his junior and senior years compared to his all time average accuracy). Josh Allen on the other hand last year saw a 14% increase in accuracy between his senior year of college to his 2020 NFL accuracy, and if we are looking at this year its an 8% increase (still more than farve).

There is absolutely no reason anyone should have ever reasonably expected Josh Allen to take a such a huge leap in accuracy numbers. If you are one of those guys that predicted that Allen would do something that we have almost never seen before in the NFL, then congrats. However I still wouldnt ask you for tomorrow's lottery numbers.

There's ALOT more that goes into evaluating accuracy than just looking at stats. What type of offense is run and what type of throws is the QB being required to make. For instance, does he have an inflated completion percentage because he's throwing a large number of short passes, such as bubble screens? What type of reads in the QB being asked to make or are the coaches making that for him from the sidelines?

Wyoming ran a pro-style offense under Craig Bohl, so Allen wasn't throwing a bunch of bubble screens. He was making more NFL type throws in college than other QB's coming out of RPO-type offenses. The average fan doesn't care about that and will just look at stats, comparing them side by side, when in actuality what the QB's are being asked to do is very different.

 

[sailfish]

I would also point out that it was said numerous times that both the Analytic guys and Dorsey were on board with Baker

That's what has been reported, but who really knows? If there was division, we may never know, as Baker is still a Brown and most of those guys are still in football and some working for the Browns. Point being, they would want it to look like everyone was on the same page.

 

[PIP]

I think Baker’s double pump to a wide open Jarvis just to launch it to Njoku in triple coverage is always a treat

 

[bob2the2nd]

There's ALOT more that goes into evaluating accuracy than just looking at stats. What type of offense is run and what type of throws is the QB being required to make. For instance, does he have an inflated completion percentage because he's throwing a large number of short passes, such as bubble screens?

Wyoming ran a pro-style offense under Craig Bohl, so Allen wasn't throwing a bunch of bubble screens. He was making more NFL type throws in college than other QB's coming out of RPO-type offenses. The average fan doesn't care about that and will just look at stats, comparing them side by side, when in actuality what the QB's are being asked to do is very different.

You are trying to re-write history here with all of this. you are absolutely correct about analysis of accuracy but Allen absolutely was not an accurate QB, and he was even MORE inaccurate his rookie year in the NFL (52%), then his second year (58%) was respectable.

Then he jumped up to 70%. this is off the charts improvement that has never been seen before. Stop trying to make believe that everyone under the sun should have seen that Allen would improve his accuracy 15%

 

[Triplethreat]

Can we just get an elite fucking WR please?

Notice how every playoff team has one? Our best one is Jarvis fucking Landry.

Mayfield with Chase, Hill, Adams, Kupp, Deebo we would be having such a different conversation.

Having stud WR have become increasingly important in the NFL of late.

 

[bob2the2nd]

That's what has been reported, but who really knows? If there was division, we may never know, as Baker is still a Brown and most of those guys are still in football and some working for the Browns. Point being, they would want it to look like everyone was on the same page.

I mean PFF (ugh) literally had Baker as one of their top prospects of all time. So the narrative that the browns analytics matched other analytics is not unreasonable by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[sailfish]

You are trying to re-write history here with all of this. you are absolutely correct about analysis of accuracy but Allen absolutely was not an accurate QB, and he was even MORE inaccurate his rookie year in the NFL (52%), then his second year (58%) was respectable.

Then he jumped up to 70%. this is off the charts improvement that has never been seen before. Stop trying to make believe that everyone under the sun should have seen that Allen would improve his accuracy 15%

I'm simply pointing out the obvious- Allen getting better wasn't some fluke or due to some magic dust. People like you just can't and won't ever past the completion percentage thing.