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2022 NBA Draft Safari

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Sorry I completely saw myself out of this draft season. :chuckle:

Been enjoying watching Cavs basketball and not devoting time to watching college kids.

Will probably have fewer qualitative opinions about this class but I will pull data and run my model at the conclusion of the NCAA’s.

Will post all the data here for everyone, as well as look back at a few previous drafts and see how the model is continuing to track.

If anyone has players they want modeled, feel free to post them and I will make sure they are included.
 
Re: Chet getting put in a body bag here.

Analytically, he’s one of the best prospects in my model………all time. :chuckle:

I can expand on that and I’ll pull his age data, as it adjusts slightly. But he currently sits #4 all time in PDIFF in the possession era.
 
RchfldCavRaised said:
Good summary. I agree though I would also say it's a gift and curse that his jumper is purer and more reliable than Tatum BECAUSE of the lack functional half court offense and guards/supporting players with the ability to spread the floor around him.

Tatum had Frank Jackson at point and Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen and Matt Jones keeping the floor spaced for him to convert those 2's at a 45% on that smaller floor. He had the 4th highest volume and was the 5th best percentage 3pt shooter on that Duke team (Kennard was 43%, Jackson was 39% and Grayson was 36% with all Allen and Kennard attempting twice as many, Matt Jones attempting 50% more and Frank Jackson attempting 15 more than Tatum

View attachment 9340

Jabari meanwhile shot 42% (just 3% less than Tatum) with the highest volume of 3's on the team (his next best shooter with volume was Green with 31%) and the only other teammate to attempt more than 100 was KD Johnson with 29%. I believe if he had Kennard, Grayson, Jones and Jackson caliber shooters, you would have seen that 2pt % higher along with the better 3pt shot and we'd probably be debating right now if Jabari is the more well rounded prospect coming out between the two. Everywhere else, their stats are nearly identical.

View attachment 9341
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Only want to say I miss Matt Jones. Dude was underrated
 
First glance at data.......

  • Jabari and Paolo are being a bit overrated via the eye test
  • Chet is being criminally underrated via the eye test
  • Tari Eason will be the Scottie Barnes of this draft.

Eason is a guy mock draft experts have begrudgingly moved up.....but will go even higher than expected.
 
I'mWithDan said:
First glance at data.......

  • Jabari and Paolo are being a bit overrated via the eye test
  • Chet is being criminally underrated via the eye test
  • Tari Eason will be the Scottie Barnes of this draft.

Eason is a guy mock draft experts have begrudgingly moved up.....but will go even higher than expected.
Click to expand...

From what I remember from the heavy lifting you and Nathan were doing with your dueling models last year, I remember you being higher on the guys my eyes liked than he was (Mobley, Barnes, Green and Kuminga)

This year if your model doesn’t like my top 5 eye guys, you can go to hell though

:chuckle:
 
RchfldCavRaised said:
From what I remember from the heavy lifting you and Nathan were doing with your dueling models last year, I remember you being higher on the guys my eyes liked than he was (Mobley, Barnes, Green and Kuminga)

This year if your model doesn’t like my top 5 eye guys, you can go to hell though

:chuckle:
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It likes both Smith and Banchero.....they are solid profiles but solid profiles don't typically go #1.

Guys who go #1 have elite analytical skill. From what I see, my model is just more lukewarm on them as elite talents.

Doesn't mean they won't be good, just means it would be really unusual for either to go over Chet.

To me, it is not dissimilar to last year with Mobley. He was, by far, the best profile......but teams talked themselves out of him for reasons that didn't matter as much as they thought they did.
 
I'mWithDan said:
Sorry I completely saw myself out of this draft season. :chuckle:

Been enjoying watching Cavs basketball and not devoting time to watching college kids.

Will probably have fewer qualitative opinions about this class but I will pull data and run my model at the conclusion of the NCAA’s.

Will post all the data here for everyone, as well as look back at a few previous drafts and see how the model is continuing to track.

If anyone has players they want modeled, feel free to post them and I will make sure they are included.
Click to expand...
What does your model think of Sochan?
 
What about a SG like Malaki Branham, or we could finally sleep with Ochai Ogbani lol. Both those guys should be available at 14
 
I'mWithDan said:
First glance at data.......

  • Jabari and Paolo are being a bit overrated via the eye test
  • Chet is being criminally underrated via the eye test
  • Tari Eason will be the Scottie Barnes of this draft.

Eason is a guy mock draft experts have begrudgingly moved up.....but will go even higher than expected.
Click to expand...

Is there a chance Eason could be there at 14?
 
So we're at the point where we're making the play-in, but losing to Charlotte or Atlanta and making the Lottery?
 
I’m not really excited about the 14 Pick are they really going to see playing time assuming everyone comes back ? Will they be that much better then Wade and Stevens?…….Stevens really have came on the last 10 games or so , I still see a little bit more growth in his game, I think Wade got more to offer too……
 
cliffdawg said:
I’m not really excited about the 14 Pick are they really going to see playing time assuming everyone comes back ? Will they be that much better then Wade and Stevens?…….Stevens really have came on the last 10 games or so , I still see a little bit more growth in his game, I think Wade got more to offer too……
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It would suck to miss the playoffs.......but early returns are this is a really good lottery.

I'll dig in a bit more on the data for everyone.......but there are roughly 20 guys in this draft my model thinks are plus profiles.

The player we could get at #14 would REALLY help us. And there are a handful of wings that are perfect fits to me.

I'm cheering for playoffs......but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if we end up 14th.

A lot of positive momentum and an additional young asset we weren't expecting to get.
 
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