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I decided to look at the Cavs' game-by-game results from last year to try and determine the effect of injuries on their final record. I looked at two situations; close losses with signficant injuries on the Cavs, and wins against opponents that had significant injuries, or "tainted wins". Here's what I came up with.
Close losses with injured players (14 games). The game number is listed first :
Game #12) 94-97 Washington (no Markkanen or Sexton)
24) 108-109 Utah (no Sexton)
25) 104-112 @ Milwaukee (no Sexton)
34) 104-108 New Orleans (no Garland or Allen. Rubio was injured late in this game)
36) 118-121 Atlanta (no Garland or Rubio, Pangos and Goodwin played 48 mins at PG)
38) 106-110 Memphis (no Sexton, Rubio)
59) 103-106 @ Detroit (no Garland, Sexton, Rubio)
61) 122-127 Minnesota (no Garland or Rubio - Goodwin and Frazier played 39 mins)
63) 119-125 @ Philly (no Sexton, LeVert, Rubio)
69) 114-118 Philly (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)
74) 94-98 Chicago (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)
76) 112-120 Dallas (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)
79) 108-112 Philly (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)
80) 115-120 @ Orlando (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)
Wins with opponents having significant injuries (11 games):
14) 91-89 Boston (no Markkanen, Celtics missing Jaylen Brown)
22) 111-85 @ Miami (no Jimmy Butler)
26) 115-92 Chicago (no Demar DeRozan)
29) 105-94 Miami (no Jimmy Butler)
31) 119-90 @ Milwaukee (no Giannis, Middleton, Holiday)
33) 144-99 Toronto (all Raptors starters out)
42) 111-91 @ Utah (no Rudy Gobert)
45) 114-107 Brooklyn (no Kevin Durant)
60) 92-86 Washington (no Bradley Beal)
64) 104-93 Toronto (no Anunoby, VanVleet)
82) 133-115 Milwaukee (all Bucks’ starters rested)
So my simple look shows 14 games the Cavs lost by less than 10 points and in most cases less than 5 points despite missing key players. They also won 11 games where the opponent was missing a key player. You could argue that when they beat Miami by 26 points in game #22 they probably would have won that one even if Jimmy Butler played. But I'm trying to be conservative here.
I figure if you eliminate the games where injuries were a major factor the Cavs were probably a 47-win team or close to it. They would have won a lot more games if not for injuries to Sexton, Rubio, Markkanen, LeVert, and Allen. Garland was in and out with a back injury for part of the season.
But on the other hand, they also lucked out in that Butler missed two of their games against Miami and Giannis missed two games when they played Milwaukee - all Cavalier wins. Due to injuries and COVID they had games where they did not have to deal with Durant, DeRozan, Beal, and Gobert. All in all, they lost a lot of wins due to injuries but also picked up a few.
Close losses with injured players (14 games). The game number is listed first :
Game #12) 94-97 Washington (no Markkanen or Sexton)
24) 108-109 Utah (no Sexton)
25) 104-112 @ Milwaukee (no Sexton)
34) 104-108 New Orleans (no Garland or Allen. Rubio was injured late in this game)
36) 118-121 Atlanta (no Garland or Rubio, Pangos and Goodwin played 48 mins at PG)
38) 106-110 Memphis (no Sexton, Rubio)
59) 103-106 @ Detroit (no Garland, Sexton, Rubio)
61) 122-127 Minnesota (no Garland or Rubio - Goodwin and Frazier played 39 mins)
63) 119-125 @ Philly (no Sexton, LeVert, Rubio)
69) 114-118 Philly (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)
74) 94-98 Chicago (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)
76) 112-120 Dallas (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)
79) 108-112 Philly (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)
80) 115-120 @ Orlando (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)
Wins with opponents having significant injuries (11 games):
14) 91-89 Boston (no Markkanen, Celtics missing Jaylen Brown)
22) 111-85 @ Miami (no Jimmy Butler)
26) 115-92 Chicago (no Demar DeRozan)
29) 105-94 Miami (no Jimmy Butler)
31) 119-90 @ Milwaukee (no Giannis, Middleton, Holiday)
33) 144-99 Toronto (all Raptors starters out)
42) 111-91 @ Utah (no Rudy Gobert)
45) 114-107 Brooklyn (no Kevin Durant)
60) 92-86 Washington (no Bradley Beal)
64) 104-93 Toronto (no Anunoby, VanVleet)
82) 133-115 Milwaukee (all Bucks’ starters rested)
So my simple look shows 14 games the Cavs lost by less than 10 points and in most cases less than 5 points despite missing key players. They also won 11 games where the opponent was missing a key player. You could argue that when they beat Miami by 26 points in game #22 they probably would have won that one even if Jimmy Butler played. But I'm trying to be conservative here.
I figure if you eliminate the games where injuries were a major factor the Cavs were probably a 47-win team or close to it. They would have won a lot more games if not for injuries to Sexton, Rubio, Markkanen, LeVert, and Allen. Garland was in and out with a back injury for part of the season.
But on the other hand, they also lucked out in that Butler missed two of their games against Miami and Giannis missed two games when they played Milwaukee - all Cavalier wins. Due to injuries and COVID they had games where they did not have to deal with Durant, DeRozan, Beal, and Gobert. All in all, they lost a lot of wins due to injuries but also picked up a few.