2022 Off-season Thread - The Future is Bright

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I decided to look at the Cavs' game-by-game results from last year to try and determine the effect of injuries on their final record. I looked at two situations; close losses with signficant injuries on the Cavs, and wins against opponents that had significant injuries, or "tainted wins". Here's what I came up with.

Close losses with injured players (14 games). The game number is listed first :

Game #12) 94-97 Washington (no Markkanen or Sexton)

24) 108-109 Utah (no Sexton)

25) 104-112 @ Milwaukee (no Sexton)

34) 104-108 New Orleans (no Garland or Allen. Rubio was injured late in this game)

36) 118-121 Atlanta (no Garland or Rubio, Pangos and Goodwin played 48 mins at PG)

38) 106-110 Memphis (no Sexton, Rubio)

59) 103-106 @ Detroit (no Garland, Sexton, Rubio)

61) 122-127 Minnesota (no Garland or Rubio - Goodwin and Frazier played 39 mins)

63) 119-125 @ Philly (no Sexton, LeVert, Rubio)

69) 114-118 Philly (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)

74) 94-98 Chicago (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)

76) 112-120 Dallas (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)

79) 108-112 Philly (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)

80) 115-120 @ Orlando (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)

Wins with opponents having significant injuries (11 games):

14) 91-89 Boston (no Markkanen, Celtics missing Jaylen Brown)

22) 111-85 @ Miami (no Jimmy Butler)

26) 115-92 Chicago (no Demar DeRozan)

29) 105-94 Miami (no Jimmy Butler)

31) 119-90 @ Milwaukee (no Giannis, Middleton, Holiday)

33) 144-99 Toronto (all Raptors starters out)

42) 111-91 @ Utah (no Rudy Gobert)

45) 114-107 Brooklyn (no Kevin Durant)

60) 92-86 Washington (no Bradley Beal)

64) 104-93 Toronto (no Anunoby, VanVleet)

82) 133-115 Milwaukee (all Bucks’ starters rested)

So my simple look shows 14 games the Cavs lost by less than 10 points and in most cases less than 5 points despite missing key players. They also won 11 games where the opponent was missing a key player. You could argue that when they beat Miami by 26 points in game #22 they probably would have won that one even if Jimmy Butler played. But I'm trying to be conservative here.

I figure if you eliminate the games where injuries were a major factor the Cavs were probably a 47-win team or close to it. They would have won a lot more games if not for injuries to Sexton, Rubio, Markkanen, LeVert, and Allen. Garland was in and out with a back injury for part of the season.

But on the other hand, they also lucked out in that Butler missed two of their games against Miami and Giannis missed two games when they played Milwaukee - all Cavalier wins. Due to injuries and COVID they had games where they did not have to deal with Durant, DeRozan, Beal, and Gobert. All in all, they lost a lot of wins due to injuries but also picked up a few.

 

[daytripper]

This draft pick at 14 may be one of their best shots to add a young, good size wing even if this player 'just' turns out to be a roleplayer. The Cavs still have time to develop the right guy as Mobley probably still needs another 1-2 years of seasoning himself before he's ready to lead this team to any deep playoff runs. Almost every team in the league needs wings so it's going to be difficult to find one thru trade or FA.

 

[RchfldCavRaised]

Join us on a live Zoom for the draft lottery tonight

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[Bob_The_Cat]

I decided to look at the Cavs' game-by-game results from last year to try and determine the effect of injuries on their final record. I looked at two situations; close losses with signficant injuries on the Cavs, and wins against opponents that had significant injuries, or "tainted wins". Here's what I came up with.

Close losses with injured players (14 games). The game number is listed first :

Game #12) 94-97 Washington (no Markkanen or Sexton)

24) 108-109 Utah (no Sexton)

25) 104-112 @ Milwaukee (no Sexton)

34) 104-108 New Orleans (no Garland or Allen. Rubio was injured late in this game)

36) 118-121 Atlanta (no Garland or Rubio, Pangos and Goodwin played 48 mins at PG)

38) 106-110 Memphis (no Sexton, Rubio)

59) 103-106 @ Detroit (no Garland, Sexton, Rubio)

61) 122-127 Minnesota (no Garland or Rubio - Goodwin and Frazier played 39 mins)

63) 119-125 @ Philly (no Sexton, LeVert, Rubio)

69) 114-118 Philly (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)

74) 94-98 Chicago (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)

76) 112-120 Dallas (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)

79) 108-112 Philly (no Allen, Mobley, Sexton, Rubio)

80) 115-120 @ Orlando (no Allen, Sexton, Rubio)

Wins with opponents having significant injuries (11 games):

14) 91-89 Boston (no Markkanen, Celtics missing Jaylen Brown)

22) 111-85 @ Miami (no Jimmy Butler)

26) 115-92 Chicago (no Demar DeRozan)

29) 105-94 Miami (no Jimmy Butler)

31) 119-90 @ Milwaukee (no Giannis, Middleton, Holiday)

33) 144-99 Toronto (all Raptors starters out)

42) 111-91 @ Utah (no Rudy Gobert)

45) 114-107 Brooklyn (no Kevin Durant)

60) 92-86 Washington (no Bradley Beal)

64) 104-93 Toronto (no Anunoby, VanVleet)

82) 133-115 Milwaukee (all Bucks’ starters rested)

So my simple look shows 14 games the Cavs lost by less than 10 points and in most cases less than 5 points despite missing key players. They also won 11 games where the opponent was missing a key player. You could argue that when they beat Miami by 26 points in game #22 they probably would have won that one even if Jimmy Butler played. But I'm trying to be conservative here.

I figure if you eliminate the games where injuries were a major factor the Cavs were probably a 47-win team or close to it. They would have won a lot more games if not for injuries to Sexton, Rubio, Markkanen, LeVert, and Allen. Garland was in and out with a back injury for part of the season.

But on the other hand, they also lucked out in that Butler missed two of their games against Miami and Giannis missed two games when they played Milwaukee - all Cavalier wins. Due to injuries and COVID they had games where they did not have to deal with Durant, DeRozan, Beal, and Gobert. All in all, they lost a lot of wins due to injuries but also picked up a few.

 

[CavsKermit]

I expect they will sign Rubio and try to get by with a Garland/Sexton/LeVert backcourt until Rubio is ready. If Okoro spends the off-season working on his offensive game and makes some progress that will help.

Koby is talking up how good this draft looks and reportedly he's not the only one who thinks there will be some good projects there at 14. I won't be surprised if all they do is add Rubio and the draft pick. You can consider Sexton to be a free agent signing since he only played in 11 games.

So the second half of the season they could have the same unit they had when they were rolling last year, plus Sexton, and with an improved Mobley. The starting unit of DG, LeVert, Mobley, Allen, and Marky will have had 40 games to get used to each other. Okoro should be better offensively. They would also have the opportunity to trade Love at mid-season to a non-contender looking to add cap space in return for a missing piece.

Yeah, the Cavs can't keep trading picks and expiring contracts for guys who aren't the answer. They need to save them so that when a guy who might actually be the answer becomes available, they still have them to trade.

 

[CavsKermit]

Glad kyrie Is taking some blame in breaking up him and LeBron saying he wasn't mature enough. I don't care about his beliefs, or what he does. I mostly can't stand him for thinking he could lead a team and being jealous of sitting backseat to one of the greatest ever. His career would be in such a better position if him and LeBron were still teammates.

It's really weird how Kyrie's self-reflection and accountability manifested right around the time that there's all this chatter that Kyrie might not be worth a max deal given all the drama that comes with having him on your team.

 

[inliner311]

Yeah, the Cavs can't keep trading picks and expiring contracts for guys who aren't the answer. They need to save them so that when a guy who might actually be the answer becomes available, they still have them to trade.

Right, even with the #39 pick we should make it so we are picking from a better pool then the undrafted free agent market. If we go wing at 14, we should go backup PG at 39. I'd much rather we draft someone in the second round and have to put them on a two way contract to develop than to just cycle through players on two way contracts all season.

 

[CavsKermit]

Right, even with the #39 pick we should make it so we are picking from a better pool then the undrafted free agent market. If we go wing at 14, we should go backup PG at 39. I'd much rather we draft someone in the second round and have to put them on a two way contract to develop than to just cycle through players on two way contracts all season.

If they're not high on anyone who's on the board, I'd be fine if they traded that pick for a future second. I'm less concerned about picks outside the top 40 as the odds of getting a true NBA player that far out aren't good.

 

[foucault87]

Figured this was the best thread for this discussion. So, we regularly talk about how this team has two major needs: defensive wing and shooting. Ideally, we would find both in a solid 6'6" body that shoots 40% from 3 and is an elite defender, think somewhere in between 2019 Danny Green and pre-injury Klay.

The vast majority of 3nD guys are not that. They are either guys with good to great D but shoot <40% from 3 (DFS, Royce O'neal, my favorite RHJ) or they are great shooters with mediocre D (Gary Trent Jr). In neither case are the players particularly a liability for spacing (other than RHJ) or D but they are only outstanding at one thing and average at the other. Realistically, we are going to end up with one of these half 3nD players. So my question is, given the current makeup of our roster, and assuming no drastic changes to the core components, is it better to get a player with outstanding D and decent shooting, or an elite shooter who is a mediocre defender?

 

[mds]

I think we need spacing and scoring more than anything right now. When heathy our D was pretty good, but we struggled quite a bit in the half court.

 

[CavsKermit]

Figured this was the best thread for this discussion. So, we regularly talk about how this team has two major needs: defensive wing and shooting. Ideally, we would find both in a solid 6'6" body that shoots 40% from 3 and is an elite defender, think somewhere in between 2019 Danny Green and pre-injury Klay.

The vast majority of 3nD guys are not that. They are either guys with good to great D but shoot <40% from 3 (DFS, Royce O'neal, my favorite RHJ) or they are great shooters with mediocre D (Gary Trent Jr). In neither case are the players particularly a liability for spacing (other than RHJ) or D but they are only outstanding at one thing and average at the other. Realistically, we are going to end up with one of these half 3nD players. So my question is, given the current makeup of our roster, and assuming no drastic changes to the core components, is it better to get a player with outstanding D and decent shooting, or an elite shooter who is a mediocre defender?

I think GTJ would be an excellent acquisition. Mobley and Allen combined defensively are elite, but you want a guy who's at least replacement level on defense in the starting unit. You don't want Garland taking the harder defensive assignment. You can always rotate in good shooters who are lousy defenders off of the bench.

 

[Cavatt]

I think we need spacing and scoring more than anything right now. When heathy our D was pretty good, but we struggled quite a bit in the half court.

I agree. With Mobley and Allen your spacing is bad but it is even worse for the opponent. Need shooters at the other 3 positions and really need Mobley to improve his shot

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Based on my game-by-game analysis above and taking into consideration outcomes that were affected either injuries to key Cavs players or key opponents, I concluded the Cavs were about a 47-35 team last year once injuries were removed from the equation. I think that will be their starting point next season since there will be no significant losses from last year.

How many additional wins above 47 they can achieve will be mostly determined by injury luck and how much internal improvement can be made, primarily by Mobley and Okoro. The other big factor will be whether they can find a replacement for Rubio - either LeVert, Sexton, Rubio himself, all of the above, or signing a veteran backup point guard with Rubio's skill level.

The wild card is Sexton. Assuming he will be back and fully recovered, how much better, if any, does he make this team?

Okoro, Wade, and Stevens are really going to have to push themselves to get better this summer if they want to maintain their minutes at the level of last season. There's going to be a war for minutes at the off-guard position between Sexton, LeVert, and Okoro. Also at the small forward position between Markkanen, Stevens, and Okoro. There's going to be a mid-first round pick somewhere in the mix as well.

 

[CavsKermit]

Based on my game-by-game analysis above and taking into consideration outcomes that were affected either injuries to key Cavs players or key opponents, I concluded the Cavs were about a 47-35 team last year once injuries were removed from the equation. I think that will be their starting point next season since there will be no significant losses from last year.

How many additional wins above 47 they can achieve will be mostly determined by injury luck and how much internal improvement can be made, primarily by Mobley and Okoro. The other big factor will be whether they can find a replacement for Rubio - either LeVert, Sexton, Rubio himself, all of the above, or signing a veteran backup point guard with Rubio's skill level.

The wild card is Sexton. Assuming he will be back and fully recovered, how much better, if any, does he make this team?

Okoro, Wade, and Stevens are really going to have to push themselves to get better this summer if they want to maintain their minutes at the level of last season. There's going to be a war for minutes at the off-guard position between Sexton, LeVert, and Okoro. Also at the small forward position between Markkanen, Stevens, and Okoro. There's going to be a mid-first round pick somewhere in the mix as well.

I have Wade getting minutes with the starters at SF over Stevens. I'm amazed at how wildly overrated Stevens is on this board.

 

[PIP]

I dunno, when Stevens was getting consistent time I thought he definitely looked like a solid contributor…