2022 Season | Series #18 | Rangers @ Guardians | June 6-8, 2022

CDAV45 said:

Some exceptional CF defense tonight. That's about as good as it gets IMO.

I don't like that McCarty was used, but the roster and the timing made it so. Had Tito started Pilkington in the 2nd game then some roster moves would have been looming once Pilkington's spot was reached in a few days. The double header rule made it so no roster moves were needed. This does bring up the issue of roster construction for this team. They need a better SP than McCarty that has options. If they have to add Battenfield then Mercado might be on his last leg in this organization. That or they could trade Amed and clear a spot. However they do it, it needs to be done. I hate giving away wins like they had to do today.

OGon has been impressive. He's aggressive early in the count and has just missed crushing a few pitches into the next county. The HR will come, but I hope he doesn't feel the need to change his ways. His approach changes with 2 strikes, and it should. Clearly he has excellent bat to ball skills which explains his low walk rate and good SO rate prior to being called up. I'm still not seeing any issues with hitting curves/sliders in the strike zone.

I'm concerned with Naylor's leg/health. He appears to be struggling mightily when running the bases.

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Thanks for the info - I was wondering why Pilkington didn't get that start. Yeah, we just had to give the game away by starting a minor league filler guy.

I agree that Naylor looks like he's in a lot of pain when he has to run, especially sliding or decelerating coming into a bag.

Gonzalez's two line drives over the left fielder were impressive. I think both were on breaking balls. In his last at-bat he got a nasty slider down and away with two strikes and lined a one-hopper to the shortstop. He was out, but hit the ball squarely. His defense has been impeccable so far. We may have something here.

Bieber goes against Dane Dunning tonight unless it rains. Dunning is a 27-year-old right-hander with a career record of 8-13, 4.81. This year he is 1-3, 4.11. His road ERA this year is 4.91. In his last start he went seven innings allowing two runs.

The first three times through the batting order hitters are averaging .217, .229, and .304/.823. Obviously the key is getting to the third time through as quickly as possible.

Dunning is extremely tough when he gets to two strikes. These are the batting averages when hitters put the ball in play on the 2-strike counts:

0-2 .192
1-2 .097
2-2 .190
3-2 .182

The key is to swing at a good pitch to hit early and not let him get to two strikes. My guess is he rarely throws a pitch in the zone with two strikes on the batter and excels at getting them to chase, hence the low batting averages. The G's need to be disciplined with two strikes and expect pitches off the edge.

Dunning has gone 6 innings or more in 5 of his last 7 starts, and 5.2 innings in another one. He's been very good the first two times through the batting order, which gets him to the 6th inning in good shape.

In Rosario's last at-bat he whiffed at three straight sliders that were low, outside, and well out of the zone. After the first two I was thinking the pitcher is going to throw another one and there's no way Amed will chase three in a row in the same spot. But he did. I hate it when it's obvious to a fan like me that the pitch will be a breaking ball outside and in the dirt and the hitter chases it anyway. You'd think if I know what's coming the hitter would, too.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

Thanks for the info - I was wondering why Pilkington didn't get that start. Yeah, we just had to give the game away by starting a minor league filler guy.

I agree that Naylor looks like he's in a lot of pain when he has to run, especially sliding or decelerating coming into a bag.

Gonzalez's two line drives over the left fielder were impressive. I think both were on breaking balls. In his last at-bat he got a nasty slider down and away with two strikes and lined a one-hopper to the shortstop. He was out, but hit the ball squarely. His defense has been impeccable so far. We may have something here.

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But, but we were told by a frequent poster that doubleheaders were an advantage to help us make up the deficit to the Twins.

With the 13 pitcher limit looming, its gonna be interesting to see how the construction of both the active and 40 man rosters take place.

We presently are carrying 13 pitchers, with McCarty returning to Columbus.

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Moving Pilkington back between Bieber and TMac makes for an interesting contrast.

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The timing of the doubleheader left us with few options for a second game starter. One of which was to use Pilkington and kick the can down the road. The other was to go with a bullpen game, burning the pen in the midst of a stretch without a day off. We lost, but McCarty gave us four innings. Several relievers got some needed work, without taxing any of them.

********

Bryan Shaw has made 22 appearances.

He has given up a run in four of them.

He has allowed only 2 0f 11 inherited runners to score. (18.2%...11th best in the AL)

His strand rate is 81%.

His ERA is bloated by one major implosion. Minus that one, his ERA is 1.59.

Tito is right in how often and when he uses Shaw. The results bear it out.

**********

The concensus seems to be that we simply cannot contend this year.

BR has us as the favorite to win the division with 85 wins.

Fangraphs and Pecota do not.

*********

The Twins have given up six or more runs in six of their last 12 games. Eight of those games were against KC and Detroit. Four against Toronto and NY.

We have given up six or more in six of our last 31. Seventeen of those games were against losing teams. Twelve were against Minnesota, SD, Houston, and Toronto.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

DCTribefan said:

But, but we were told by a frequent poster that doubleheaders were an advantage to help us make up the deficit to the Twins.

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But, but, but...

Every frequent poster on this forum should at least understand that baseball...and a baseball season...is not a game of instant gratification. Its a game of attrition.

The teams with the most pitching depth tend to survive attrition better than the others. Doubleheaders...compacted scheduling...is an even bigger hindrance to teams lacking pitching depth.

We are already seeing it.

Over their last 12 games, the ERA for the Twins rotation is 5.77. They have averaged under 5 IP per start. They have two QS in that span.

They still have 5 games with NY and TB plus six out west without a day off.

Then after a travel day they play eight of the next eleven against us in ten days.

The effects of attrition don't show up in one game or one doubleheader. They, like erosion, show up over time.

tristan+kyrie=$ said:

Team is fun… bought tickets for Saturday

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I'll be two rows back from home plate Saturday.

Real Deal said:

Ohhhhh @DickyLeftridge

Who lives in a pineapple under the sea

OGonGOAT

Oscar the grouch.. OscarTheGOAT

BigGonzoGOAT

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I support this post

CATS44 said:

But, but, but...

Every frequent poster on this forum should at least understand that baseball...and a baseball season...is not a game of instant gratification. Its a game of attrition.

The teams with the most pitching depth tend to survive attrition better than the others. Doubleheaders...compacted scheduling...is an even bigger hindrance to teams lacking pitching depth.

We are already seeing it.

Over their last 12 games, the ERA for the Twins rotation is 5.77. They have averaged under 5 IP per start. They have two QS in that span.

They still have 5 games with NY and TB plus six out west without a day off.

Then after a travel day they play eight of the next eleven against us in ten days.

The effects of attrition don't show up in one game or one doubleheader. They, like erosion, show up over time.

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And yet the Twins maintain a 4-game lead over the Guardians and Chisox despite that bloated ERA.

DCTribefan said:

And yet the Twins maintain a 4-game lead over the Guardians and Chisox despite that bloated ERA.

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Geesh.

In that span we've picked up three games on the Twins.

Wanna bet that the margin will go back up over the next week? I would gladly bet the other way.

Our entire staff...rotation and pen...is hitting its stride.

Their rotation is frazzled and their pen is working overtime.

And the worm is turning on the respective schedules.

BTW, our offense scores more runs than theirs.

But if you think Minnesota is a far superior team that we have absolutely no chance to compete with...if that makes you happy...be my guest. Enjoy the summer.

Here are the current odds from two sources on the Guardians chances at the playoffs:
538 - 30% (3rd in Central)
Fangraphs - 18.9% (3rd in the Central)

Fivethirtyeight.com today projects the Twins with a 42% chance of winning the AL Central and the Guardians an 18% chance. Guess they don’t realize the worm is turning.

CATS44 said:

With the 13 pitcher limit looming, its gonna be interesting to see how the construction of both the active and 40 man rosters take place.

We presently are carrying 13 pitchers, with McCarty returning to Columbus.

**********

Moving Pilkington back between Bieber and TMac makes for an interesting contrast.

***********

The timing of the doubleheader left us with few options for a second game starter. One of which was to use Pilkington and kick the can down the road. The other was to go with a bullpen game, burning the pen in the midst of a stretch without a day off. We lost, but McCarty gave us four innings. Several relievers got some needed work, without taxing any of them.

********

Bryan Shaw has made 22 appearances.

He has given up a run in four of them.

He has allowed only 2 0f 11 inherited runners to score. (18.2%...11th best in the AL)

His strand rate is 81%.

His ERA is bloated by one major implosion. Minus that one, his ERA is 1.59.

Tito is right in how often and when he uses Shaw. The results bear it out.

**********

The concensus seems to be that we simply cannot contend this year.

BR has us as the favorite to win the division with 85 wins.

Fangraphs and Pecota do not.

*********

The Twins have given up six or more runs in six of their last 12 games. Eight of those games were against KC and Detroit. Four against Toronto and NY.

We have given up six or more in six of our last 31. Seventeen of those games were against losing teams. Twelve were against Minnesota, SD, Houston, and Toronto.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Click to expand...

One major factor that is working opposite of what it did last year for us is the overall health of our pitchers. It's a big advantage and we're seeing a couple of our division rivals deal with it this year. Hopefully that's a trend that continues.

There's a lot of season remaining so anything can happen, but one thing I'm certain of is that this team will get better and possibly significantly better as the season wears on. They don't have to abandon their plan in order for it to happen either. I don't even care if they make the playoffs this season as I was expecting another development year, but you'd have a hard time convincing me that this team isn't going to be in the run. If they get Reyes back and add another big bat then we're looking at the AL Central champs IMO.

If we can get Reyes back and hitting at his career average we'll score a lot of runs, especially with an infield of JRam, Gimenez, Miller, and Naylor with an OF of Straw, Gonzalez, and Kwan/Rosario.

The emergence of Eli Morgan as a bridge to the closer is huge, IMO. If we could get Sandlin and Stephan to overcome their command issues this bullpen could be really good.

33Y0 said:

Here are the current odds from two sources on the Guardians chances at the playoffs:
538 - 30% (3rd in Central)
Fangraphs - 18.9% (3rd in the Central)

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there is only one number (odds, stats, guess, postulations, ouija, etc) that matters: 1 1/2 games out of the last wild card spot (behind the Red Sox).. The rest are conjecture, hope and machismo...

Baseball Reference has us as the favorites.

Guardians....58.9% to make playoffs...47.9% to win the ALC...85 wins.

Twins....46.3%....33.1%...84 wins.

WSox....27.5%...8.0%...81 wins.

Remaining records...

Guards....60-51
Twins......52-53
CSox.......55-54

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Staying healthy...esp the pitching...is always a major factor. Chicago did last year and we didn't.

So far, that worm has turned, too.

As has been discussed in the Velocity thread, it is obvious that the org wrapped our rotation in bubble wrap to start the season in order to give it a higher chance of getting thru 162 games intact. The wraps have been taken off and the overall velocity is rising.

For instance, Plesacs velocity sat 90-91 in his first start, with one pitch at 93. In his last start he started out at 91-92 and by the end of his start was sitting 92-93 with two at 94.

This is all happening...gradually...before our very eyes. Our trend lines are moving up.