I’m glad you said this part because this was ultimately a big part of my point from before when I quoted you earlier.
Anyone who says there’s “no chance” the NFLPA wins in court or cites some sort of "ironclad" clause in the CBA, myself and many others, IMO none of them actually mean it literally and you continuing to suggest how wrong people are when they say it is kind of missing the forest through the trees.
I don't want to put a percentage chance on the odds because that's inappropriate and I'd be talking out of my ass, but you are clearly smart and understand how difficult it is to have a court vacate a CBA's arbitration process.
So yes, you're right in the respect that it *could* happen because it's happened before in other cases throughout the history of legal battles against arbitration, but you're obviously very aware that the odds of it happening are incredibly slim.
At some point when the likelihood of something happening is so slim, a lot of people don't feel the need when making their point of adding the additional caveat of "well in extremely limited scenarios, this has actually happened before!" - So yes, those people are "wrong" because it's not 100% no questions, but at some point for the sake of a discussion like this, there's really not a tangible difference between 100% and whatever extremely high percentage chance it would actually be that the NFL would win the lawsuit.
A person wins the lottery every week, it doesn't mean it's likely to happen for everyone playing, ya know?
While this is true, often times a trial can do a 180 on a single piece of evidence.
So while it has been difficult to meet the standard, it has happened and could happen here. It's hard to describe the difficulty in meeting legal standards, but it is safe to say that
one really has to make one's case.
That said, if there is evidence that the process was corrupt, blatant and violated other parts of the CBA, it could happen.
That is why attorneys will almost always advise a settlement. All trials, like battles, can be unpredictable. You never know if that evidence grenade may be found so one avoids the trial altogether.
Discovery can be a bitch. And look at what just happened in the Alex Jones case with his phone. One memo from Goodell stating that Watson has to take the fall for _______, and things could get very dicey.
If I were to give odds, and this is the most cursory of assessments because we simply are not privy to all the potential evidence, I would say it isn't as slim as you might think, nor as much as many might hope. I would say, if the NFL continues to make the wrong moves holistically, and in particular, and they get what they want with their tame arbitrator, between 15%-25%. Again, if there is a golden bullet out there, those odds increase.
Why is it so high? Because the NFL is making it easier on the NFLPA than they could be. Generally speaking, most employment law cases involve a plaintiff looking to overturn a punishment set down by the CBA mandated arbitration are looking to set aside the punishment altogether and are making the argument that the arbitrator (or employer) was wrong. This was the case for Zeke, Brady, Ben and others. Those instances and cases are not at all instructive as precedent. This is a completely different situation.
It is highly unusual for the "employer" to appeal against its own arbitrator to increase a punishment. By appealing against its own arbitrator and then installing a tame arbitrator because the initial punishment is not enough, and using that second tame arbitrator to impose an unprecedented punishment, the NFL is greatly increasing the validity of the argument that the process is corrupt, and not executing the CBA in good faith. It also adds more luster to any discrimination argument and that the NFL is going out of its way to punish a player with an unprecedented punishment while also letting Owners off the hook.
So in summation, if one had to tailor make the one-in-six argument that would go against the norm and constitute a successful appeal of a CBA mandated punishment, it would look like what the NFL appears to be doing if they do get the indefinite suspension and $10 million fine they want.
