Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

Hey all you statistician wannabes, tell me this. What are the odds my Pinochle partner (double deck) has at least one ace of Spades if I have none in my hand?

Peacedog said:

Hey all you statistician wannabes, tell me this. What are the odds my Pinochle partner (double deck) has at least one ace of Spades if I have none in my hand?

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More than 0

Peacedog said:

Hey all you statistician wannabes, tell me this. What are the odds my Pinochle partner (double deck) has at least one ace of Spades if I have none in my hand?

Click to expand...

If I understood the rules correctly (only glanced at the dealing on wiki), then it is:

1 - 34!/36! * 24!/22! = 59/105

he’s really turning it around really awesome to see

Lyuokdea said:

If I understood the rules correctly (only glanced at the dealing on wiki), then it is:

1 - 34!/36! * 24!/22! = 59/105

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You're making it too difficult. He has 1/3 chance to get each of the 4 individual aces (he's one player vs. two opponents). So the chances the other team doesn't get all 4 is 1 - (2/3)^4 = 1 - 16/81 = 65/81 (80.2%).

Peacedog said:

You're making it too difficult. He has 1/3 chance to get each of the 4 individual aces (he's one player vs. two opponents). So the chances the other team doesn't get all 4 is 1 - (2/3)^4 = 1 - 16/81 = 65/81 (80.2%).

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If i understand the rules - there are two Ace's of spades in double deck Pinochle (with 48 cards total, but you have 12 of those cards without any Ace of Spades, so you can say there are 36 cards, 2 of which are the Ace of Spades)... -- in that case our answers are very close, you would get 1 - (2/3)^2 = 0.555555 which is close to 59/105.

What you are missing is that if the other two players have at least one Ace of Spades, then there is a slightly lower chance that they have the second one, because they only have 23 cards between them instead of 24. So the answer (using a method similar to yours) would be 1 - (2/3) * (23/35) = 1-46/105 = 59/105

Edit: Just to add you'll note that my answer very quickly simplifies the same way, because almost all of the factorials cancel, 34!/36! is just 1/(36*35), and 24!/22! is just 24*23, so you will similarly get: 1 - 24*23/(36*35) and since 24/36=2/3, you get 1-(2/3)*(23/35) by a simple regrouping, to get back the same answer.

So we will see some up and down with Okoro, just like we do with Darius, reflecting minor injuries, fatigue, his defenders ability, the opposing teams adjustments and so on. But the key element is he and the coaching staff work through it, and his team mates are learning to trust him, at least in the non crunch time moments.. I think Garland still calls his own number too often in crunching, but that's another topic.

Okoro is a keeper, but I am.not sure what that means contract wise.

catfish said:

just looked at his stats-they still stink-seems ;ike he is making a leap though-only 6 months older than mobley

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His season stats are still worthless comparatively speaking. Guy was atrocious to start the year........and that level of suck is going to take a while to play your way out of.

December and January (24 games):

7.1 PTS, 2.8 REB, 1 AST, 1.3 BLK+STL, 52.1% FG (120 attempts), 43.1% 3PFG (58 attempts)

I mean, that is not nothing. I've been a big critic of Okoro but he's currently in the middle of a 20+ game sample where he has been really steady and consistent. He's made at least 1 3PFG in 14 of those 24 games (58.3%) and he's made at least 2 3PFG in 7 of those 24 games (29.1%).

His career averages in those metrics, prior to that stretch were:

At least 1 3PFG - 48.7%
At least 2 3PFG - 22.1%

So those are pretty big upswings......20% increase in the rate in which he makes at least 1 3PFG per game, 32% increase in the rate in which he makes at least 2 3PFG per game.

I'm an okoro hater, hoping to turn it to as "was"

I'mWithDan said:

His season stats are still worthless comparatively speaking. Guy was atrocious to start the year........and that level of suck is going to take a while to play your way out of.

December and January (24 games):

7.1 PTS, 2.8 REB, 1 AST, 1.3 BLK+STL, 52.1% FG (120 attempts), 43.1% 3PFG (58 attempts)

I mean, that is not nothing. I've been a big critic of Okoro but he's currently in the middle of a 20+ game sample where he has been really steady and consistent. He's made at least 1 3PFG in 14 of those 24 games (58.3%) and he's made at least 2 3PFG in 7 of those 24 games (29.1%).

His career averages in those metrics, prior to that stretch were:

At least 1 3PFG - 48.7%
At least 2 3PFG - 22.1%

So those are pretty big upswings......20% increase in the rate in which he makes at least 1 3PFG per game, 32% increase in the rate in which he makes at least 2 3PFG per game.

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Yeah, consistency is def the key here. If he had just a couple hot shooting nights and that's why his percentages are high that would be one thing. All about keeping the defense honest and that takes consistency.

Now we just hope that "Okoro is hot right now" turns into "Okoro is a passable (or even competent!) 3pt shooter"

of course his thighs will always be hot

And to think the majority of you just wanted to ship him off to Guantanamo Bay….I am throughly disgusted!

There’s zero chance for you to get on the Okoro-Rescue Yacht now…A yacht, btw, that is very nicely temperatured with plush seating, naked women serving some of the finest meats & cheeses — indoor heated pool, hot tubs, illegal cigars and party favors in addition to a fully stocked bar—- as the Captain of this Yacht I’m going to go make another Mojito…. ON THIS YACHT !!!

Sucks for you Okoro haters having to swim back in those shark infested waters with menstruating women…. Yea you’ll probably die…. Water looks cold— Meanwhile the “ICE” ON THIS YACHT, IS HOT !!!!

Ahhh well, best of luck… Toodles !

There is an argument that his recent better play might lead to the perfect time to trade him.

Yeah everyone knows I don’t like Okoro but if there is a legit wing and Okoro makes it happen, selling “high” might not be the worst idea.

Well we know who are 1st shark victim will be…

I’m ready to get bit too.

For the right player, I’d throw him in with any mix of Love, Cedi, and Caris.

PIP said:

And to think the majority of you just wanted to ship him off to Guantanamo Bay….I am throughly disgusted!

There’s zero chance for you to get on the Okoro-Rescue Yacht now…A yacht, btw, that is very nicely temperatured with plush seating, naked women serving some of the finest meats & cheeses — indoor heated pool, hot tubs, illegal cigars and party favors in addition to a fully stocked bar—- as the Captain of this Yacht I’m going to go make another Mojito…. ON THIS YACHT !!!

Sucks for you Okoro haters having to swim back in those shark infested waters with menstruating women…. Yea you’ll probably die…. Water looks cold— Meanwhile the “ICE” ON THIS YACHT, IS HOT !!!!

Ahhh well, best of luck… Toodles !

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All I know about the Isaac Okoro experience is the minute you get comfortable, the trap door opens and you fall down a fight of 100 stairs, like Peter Griffin in Family Guy.

The signs are encouraging........but this thread is basically a tribute to Okorophites wanting to repeatedly try to spike the ball in the endzone, when you haven't made it across the 50 yard line.