Triplethreat
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York will be back... that much is certain.
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2023 Browns Off-Season Thread II: Free Agent Marathon: Settling in for the Long Haul: Slow and Steady: Patience is a Virtue: Loose Lips Sink Ships!
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York will be back... that much is certain.
CBBI
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Sure.
Over the Cap did the original research and the 33rd team (see links below) compiled a lot of that research into a three part series.
1st round picks: 30% get a 2nd contract with their original team
2nd round picks: 23% get a 2nd contract with their original team
3rd round picks: 18% get a 2nd contract with their original team
4th round picks: 13% get a 2nd contract with their original team
So you start getting into probabilities...
The Browns traded 44 (23% hit rate) for 68 (18% hit rate), 108 (13% hit rate) and 124 (13% hit rate).
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1 — Round by Round
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1...The Los Angeles Rams were this year's Super Bowl winners and have largely...
www.the33rdteam.com
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 2 — Positional Value
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 2...WR and CB picks look to be very solid for first round selections. Both are considered to be...
www.the33rdteam.com
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 3 — Late-Round vs. Early-Next Round
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 3...In this year's draft, many teams have several early picks in round one...
www.the33rdteam.com
Long articles, but a lot of really good info.
Triplethreat
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Sure.
Over the Cap did the original research and the 33rd team (see links below) compiled a lot of that research into a three part series.
1st round picks: 30% get a 2nd contract with their original team
2nd round picks: 23% get a 2nd contract with their original team
3rd round picks: 18% get a 2nd contract with their original team
4th round picks: 13% get a 2nd contract with their original team
So you start getting into probabilities...
The Browns traded 44 (23% hit rate) for 68 (18% hit rate), 108 (13% hit rate) and 124 (13% hit rate).
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1 — Round by Round
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1...The Los Angeles Rams were this year's Super Bowl winners and have largely...
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 2 — Positional Value
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 2...WR and CB picks look to be very solid for first round selections. Both are considered to be...
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 3 — Late-Round vs. Early-Next Round
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 3...In this year's draft, many teams have several early picks in round one...
Long articles, but a lot of really good info.
That doesn't really prove the quality of the player at all.
1st and 2nd round picks have to be much more likely to be studs than the rest, which are likely depth players.
He’ll be cut this year. We don’t have time to be missing kicks. He won’t cost us any games because after he misses two in the row you cut him before he does.
macbdog
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You are forgetting that those numbers are all skewed by Browns draft picks, so the % that succeed as long as they aren't drafted by Cleveland is probably higher. The thing that concerns me is that he was demanding a trade in his 2nd year, that kind of premadonna shit may become an issue if Watson develops a repoire with Coop and Njoku.
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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"Second contract with original team" is a pretty rough metric to go by. If I had all the data, that isn't the column I'd choose to use.Sure.
Over the Cap did the original research and the 33rd team (see links below) compiled a lot of that research into a three part series.
1st round picks: 30% get a 2nd contract with their original team
2nd round picks: 23% get a 2nd contract with their original team
3rd round picks: 18% get a 2nd contract with their original team
4th round picks: 13% get a 2nd contract with their original team
So you start getting into probabilities...
The Browns traded 44 (23% hit rate) for 68 (18% hit rate), 108 (13% hit rate) and 124 (13% hit rate).
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1 — Round by Round
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 1...The Los Angeles Rams were this year's Super Bowl winners and have largely...
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 2 — Positional Value
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 2...WR and CB picks look to be very solid for first round selections. Both are considered to be...
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 3 — Late-Round vs. Early-Next Round
The Hidden Reality of Draft Value: Part 3...In this year's draft, many teams have several early picks in round one...
Long articles, but a lot of really good info.
"More than X number of starts" might be a good one. Just having a second contract at all might be good too--after all, if you go get a massive contract in free agency, why should that be deemed not a success?
Anecdotally, I think most draft classes have a ton of talent at the top of the second round. Picks 33-40 are usually some of my favorite guys. It's all emotion and no data, but I'd be hard pressed to agree that top of round 2 guys aren't significantly different than round 3-4 guys.
It also needs to take position into account. I can probably find a starting interior offensive lineman in rounds 3-4. I probably can't find a starting tackle, QB, WR, etc.
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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kriegs
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It's one of the best tools to evaluate a WR's skill level when paired with athletic testing. The fact that Elijah checks both boxes is very promising.
There will always be factors outside a player's control that affect their success (QB, offense, pace), and it's impossible for fans to know every detail about a player's professionalism and work habits (Corey Coleman)
I'll always remember how much Harmon loved Hollywood Higgins, and I can't even consider it a miss. For where he was drafted he's had a solid career!
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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Lee
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Lets make up the draft chart Bible.
Thou shall not move out of the 2nd round for less than a future 1st or present 3rd and 4th
Thou shall honor your analytics department
Though shall not covet your neighbor's tight end with out proper notice
Thou shall not take a running back in the first 10 picks.
Lee
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1st round picks for sure, what is interesting is the percent of starters in the 1st round almost doesnt matter where you are picked, like 51% in the first 15 picks and 49% in the last. Stat is a bit old, but intersing
One thing though is the 1st overall pick does end up being a starter much more than any other spot, but outside of 1st overall, its a crap shoot at about the same percentage.
Ohdang
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Triplethreat
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I still cannot believe the Jags got Calvin Ridley for a 2 and a 5.
What an incredible get that would’ve been here in Cleveland.
What an incredible get that would’ve been here in Cleveland.
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