2023 Browns Off-Season Thread II: Free Agent Marathon: Settling in for the Long Haul: Slow and Steady: Patience is a Virtue: Loose Lips Sink Ships!

[bs80]

"Second contract with original team" is a pretty rough metric to go by. If I had all the data, that isn't the column I'd choose to use.

"More than X number of starts" might be a good one. Just having a second contract at all might be good too--after all, if you go get a massive contract in free agency, why should that be deemed not a success?

Anecdotally, I think most draft classes have a ton of talent at the top of the second round. Picks 33-40 are usually some of my favorite guys. It's all emotion and no data, but I'd be hard pressed to agree that top of round 2 guys aren't significantly different than round 3-4 guys.

It also needs to take position into account. I can probably find a starting interior offensive lineman in rounds 3-4. I probably can't find a starting tackle, QB, WR, etc.

Agreed that a second contract with the original team is a bit of a rough metric, but to be honest I don't think any very good metric exists. "More than X number of starts" has its flaws too, as a bunch of subpar players were able to pad their "games started" on absolute shit teams like the ones we're all too familiar with from the previous two decades.

Maybe some combination of analytical grades and total earnings would be a better indication of how good a player was, but again, not all positions get paid evenly so that has flaws as well.

As for the guys in the 33 to 40 range that you referenced, even if numerous future studs end up being taken in that range, I'd bet that the whiff rate on those picks as a whole is still quite high. Or maybe I'm just jaded from being a Browns fan for almost four decades. It feels like it was just yesterday when we had three 2nd rounders and managed to whiff on all of them.

 

[kriegs]

I still cannot believe the Jags got Calvin Ridley for a 2 and a 5.

What an incredible get that would’ve been here in Cleveland.

I'd much rather have rookie contract Elijah Moore. The difference between moving down a round and giving up a 2 and 5 outright is substantial. But Ridley did play for Bama like Jeudy so there's that

 

[Triplethreat]

I'd much rather have rookie contract Elijah Moore. The difference between moving down a round and giving up a 2 and 5 outright is substantial. But Ridley did play for Bama like Jeudy so there's that

You’d raThe have Elijah Mitchell than Calvin Ridley? Lmao

 

[MirORich]

If the Browns ever trade down from 42 to the 70s to pick up a 6th round pick I think I'll just jump off the I-77.

They never will and it’s why those charts are bunk. Or if not bunk, grossly misinterpreted by the layman fan.

That said, I think the JImmy Johnson charts are also way outdated as well.

If Moore turns out to be a good WR for multiple years for us + we get a long term decent to good/very good player at 74, then the trade is an absolute home run, no matter what any one chart may say.

If Moore is so-so or worse and pick 74 never becomes a good player for us, then the trade was trash, no matter what the perceived value at the time was.

As always, results matter

 

[Scrote Squad]

You’d raThe have Elijah Mitchell than Calvin Ridley? Lmao

That's not what he said lmao

 

[NorthCoastBias]

"Elijah Mitchell"

 

[Triplethreat]

That's not what he said lmao

In no way, shape or form should you rather have Elijah Moore than Calvin Ridley because of contract, or compensation.

 

[Triplethreat]

"Elijah Mitchell"

Whoopsies

 

[Scrote Squad]

In no way, shape or form should you rather have Elijah Moore than Calvin Ridley because of contract, or compensation.

You've had some bad takes over the years but this one may make your Mount Rushmore.

 

[Jack Brickman]

You’d raThe have Elijah Mitchell than Calvin Ridley? Lmao

Calvin Ridley is 28 years old and just served a year suspension for doing one of the absolute dumbest, most easy to avoid things you can get suspended for. He's making eleven million dollars this year and will be due for an extension in the offseason.

Elijah Moore is 22 years old and still has two years left on his rookie deal at under two million per year.

These things matter. Elijah Moore is younger right now than Ridley was when he was drafted. He'll still be younger than Ridley was when he was drafted a year from now.

 

[AZ_]

Keep all the picks and sign one of Hardman,Jarvis,Odell,agholor,dj Clark, hell I’d take Julio jones before I’d blow our load on jeudy.

Really really glad nobody of any significance listened to this, because its undeniably a worse option than acquiring a 22-year-old with similar production or better on his rookie deal.

When is pre-training camp with Watson?

31 Base:

Z: DPJ
X: Cooper
SL: Moore

TE: Njoku
RB: Chubb


Take a WR off the field, add Akins and you’re still okay to block the run and utilize him as a receiver.

They can be creative adding bulk in the run while having competent pass targets regardless of personnel.

Have to like that. Curious if they’ll do a pre-training camp getaway with Watson somewhere, but the expectations are clear.

Need the chemistry and timing to be there early.

Not in week 12, not gradually. From game one, the outset. That is what $230 million should get you…

As some are suggesting on the Twitters, Moore could primarily work as Z and move into the slot in 31 based on matchup or scheme.



If Moore takes the Z position away from DPJ or winds up taking the primary share of targets & routes run, that means he's earned them.

Which is okay by me. Adding DPJ into the slot as a matchup problem is an intriguing possibility as well, quite a bit of room to the outside which allows him to matchup 1-on-1 vs. what is likely to be an undersized DB.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

In no way, shape or form should you rather have Elijah Moore than Calvin Ridley because of contract, or compensation.

What about in 2022?

 

[Triplethreat]

Calvin Ridley is 28 years old and just served a year suspension for doing one of the absolute dumbest, most easy to avoid things you can get suspended for. He's making eleven million dollars this year and will be due for an extension in the offseason.

Elijah Moore is 22 years old and still has two years left on his rookie deal at under two million per year.

These things matter. Elijah Moore is younger right now than Ridley was when he was drafted. He'll still be younger than Ridley was when he was drafted a year from now.

Yeah and we’re in a win now window where you can have a guy just 2 years removed form 1300-9…

Those don’t grow on trees my guy and getting one for less than a 1st rounder is amazing.

 

[red.]

 

[Lee]

I'd have to imagine more 1st overall picks than not are QBs, and even if they're bad are given at least a little while to play and see if they develop. Probably skews the numbers quite a bit. But I'm just speculating, I didn't actually look anything up.

There are positions more successful than others for sure, I think D-line has one of the highest success ratings. I find it interesting, but by no means an expert or looking it up,