2023 Browns Off-Season Thread II: Free Agent Marathon: Settling in for the Long Haul: Slow and Steady: Patience is a Virtue: Loose Lips Sink Ships!

[CBBI]

"Second contract with original team" is a pretty rough metric to go by. If I had all the data, that isn't the column I'd choose to use.

"More than X number of starts" might be a good one. Just having a second contract at all might be good too--after all, if you go get a massive contract in free agency, why should that be deemed not a success?

Anecdotally, I think most draft classes have a ton of talent at the top of the second round. Picks 33-40 are usually some of my favorite guys. It's all emotion and no data, but I'd be hard pressed to agree that top of round 2 guys aren't significantly different than round 3-4 guys.

It also needs to take position into account. I can probably find a starting interior offensive lineman in rounds 3-4. I probably can't find a starting tackle, QB, WR, etc.

I think the sense is that the vast majority of players who get a 2nd contract (especially a multi-year contract) with their original team are more often then not very valued players as teams league-wide tend to retain their very best guys. Sure there's plenty of free agency movement year-by-year, but teams generally don't let their very best guys go unless they have no choice.

Whereas players who get second contracts with another team are not always in the same boat.

Let's use the Browns roster as an example...

2nd contract from original team
Watson (later traded), Chubb, Njoku, Bitonio, Cooper (traded before end of rookie contract) Teller (traded before end of rookie contract), Garrett, Ward, Takitaki

2nd contract from another team
Conklin, Pocic, Tomlinson, Okoronkwo, Walker, Thornhill, Akins, Grant, Dobbs

Edited: moved Cooper to group 1 since he was traded before his rookie contract ended and played 1.5 seasons for Dallas before signing an extension.

I haven't given every single team in the NFL the same look, but I'd say it's pretty obvious group 1 is a lot stronger than group 2. Wouldn't shock me if that was the case league wide.

2nd contract with original team seems like a pretty reasonable barometer for a successful draft pick.

 

[Cassity14]

Stefanski as well

In three seasons, Stefanski’s offense has put up in 2 of them.

 

[Jack Brickman]

Moore cant become Ridley level production with Cooper, just like Ridley didnt make the leap until Julio left.

So many factors go into WR production, but I have no problem saying Ridley might be the better slot receiver and still think Moore is the better fit when considering, age, contract and cost.

Ridley's best year was in 2020. Julio Jones still played for the Falcons in 2020. He only played nine games, but he had nearly 800 yards. Ridley and Julio overlapped for eight of the first nine games (Ridley missed week nine). Ridley had four games in that span with over 100 yards. It's not as if Ridley went on a tear after Julio got hurt, either. He had 657 yards in the first eight games and 1374 for the season.

The only thing that really changed in the back half of the season was he got a more consistent target share. Even then, he had 68 of his 143 targets in the first half of the season, so it's not as if he wasn't being targeted.

It's also worth noting that Atlanta was fucking awful that year and playing from behind for most of the season, which inflated the stats of everyone in the offense. Matt Ryan led the league in pass attempts.

 

[AZ_]

Actually it does look like they listened to me since my argument was not blowing our picks on jeudy who I find very overrated. So you’re welcome crisis averted.

No, it was still one of a laundry list of really bad ideas.

Who you call overrated makes literally no difference. I’m just not convinced you knew who he was.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

This is like proclaiming you’d rather have Justin Fields than Deshaun Watson.

Except it isn't.

You know what QB's do to drive an offense, and you know what ancillary skill positions do as well. We don't have unlimited funds--and the 10M difference between the two receivers would have to come out of somewhere else.

This is like saying you'd prefer Elijah Moore, the 74th pick, the 144th pick and Dalvin Tomlinson over Calvin Ridley... because that's closer to reality.

Flat out, Ridley > Moore.

Yeah, Calvin Ridley is a better player than Elijah Moore.

I prefer our situation over Jacksonville's.

Also, we'd have to outbid Jacksonville--because it's likely that Atlanta views their second rounder as more valuable than ours.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

2nd contract with original team seems like a pretty reasonable barometer for a successful draft pick.

Using your own barometer, it's saying Amari Cooper isn't a successful draft pick.

I think we can do better

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

It's also worth noting that Atlanta was fucking awful that year and playing from behind for most of the season, which inflated the stats of everyone in the offense. Matt Ryan led the league in pass attempts.

This is very, very important.

It's part of why the Austin Hooper signing sucked.

 

[Jack Brickman]

This is very, very important.

It's part of why the Austin Hooper signing sucked.

I mean, the Hooper signing was obvious in its intent. Stefanski wanted another TE to run his system with Mayfield and Hooper was the top free agent that year. I doubt Berry loved him, as he's not exactly the type of guy he typically seems to go after. It was just a big need for the offensive system just like fixing the offensive line was. And as a result, Baker had by far the best year of his career. Basically all of what we did that offseason centered around giving Stefanski the tools he needed to run his offense.

It's pretty telling that Hooper's deal basically ran until Njoku was up for real money, at which point they jettisoned the former and re-signed the latter.

 

[Randolphkeys]

While I kinda want to let a sleeping dog lie, I also want to suggest a possible reason the Jets packaged Elijah Moore to the Browns at a price many pundits call an early Browns win.

The Jets care more about landing Aaron Rodgers than they do winning a trade for their disgruntled #3 receiver.

The Browns front office knew Moore is barely worth a third rounder. He's a depreciating asset due to a terrible Jets offensive season, and his public demands to be traded.

But the Big Apple franchise is trying to steal away Aaron Rodgers with a trade package that isn't embarrassing to the Packers. By giving New York a second round pick but at an adjusted value that is a net loss, they are able to offer more draft capital for Rodgers.

Basically, Elijah Moore is the NFL version of Jarrett Allen.

 

[inliner311]

While I kinda want to let a sleeping dog lie, I also want to suggest a possible reason the Jets packaged Elijah Moore to the Browns at a price many pundits call an early Browns win.

The Jets care more about landing Aaron Rodgers than they do winning a trade for their disgruntled #3 receiver.

The Browns front office knew Moore is barely worth a third rounder. He's a depreciating asset due to a terrible Jets offensive season, and his public demands to be traded.

But the Big Apple franchise is trying to steal away Aaron Rodgers with a trade package that isn't embarrassing to the Packers. By giving New York a second round pick but at an adjusted value that is a net loss, they are able to offer more draft capital for Rodgers.

Basically, Elijah Moore is the NFL version of Jarrett Allen.

They also signed Hardman and Lazard to go along with Garrett Wilson and Corey Davis. That a pretty good WR group and could possibly get better if someone is waiting on Rodgers to be officially traded to make their own decision.

 

[red.]

 

[CBBI]

Using your own barometer, it's saying Amari Cooper isn't a successful draft pick.

I think we can do better

I mean if you wanna get technical, Cooper was actually traded before the end of his rookie contract and then given an extension of his rookie contract by his the team he finished his rookie contract with

So I actually had him in the wrong group. He should have been in group 1 like Teller.

I think a slight rephrasing is in order. If a player gets a contract extension from the team they finished their rookie contract with, odds are they're a VERY good player. Better?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I mean, the Hooper signing was obvious in its intent. Stefanski wanted another TE to run his system with Mayfield and Hooper was the top free agent that year. I doubt Berry loved him, as he's not exactly the type of guy he typically seems to go after. It was just a big need for the offensive system just like fixing the offensive line was. And as a result, Baker had by far the best year of his career. Basically all of what we did that offseason centered around giving Stefanski the tools he needed to run his offense.

It's pretty telling that Hooper's deal basically ran until Njoku was up for real money, at which point they jettisoned the former and re-signed the latter.

Agreed. It's what I've been saying for years.

So, my take on Hooper is that he's not good. The front office knows he's not good. But, Stefanski said that he needed a dependable tight end to run his system, so they overpaid for Hooper.

Watching him not know how to run a route against a zone defense in the Jets game made me turn off of him forever. I feel like he also had at least one drop in that game, but the play where he kept running full speed from one zone to the next, instead of sitting down was it for me. Baker threw the ball correctly, but because Hooper can't play football, the ball was behind him, Hooper didn't catch it, and STILL got rocked by the dude in the next zone.

I can't wait until we have two better options than Hooper playing ahead of him. But, he's dependable to execute the plays on the football field in a way that Bryant currently is not.

I agree with you that Takitaki hasn't shown anything in pass coverage. But, a few weeks into the season, I was ready to call him a special teamer ready to get cut when better options presented themselves. I feel he's actually turned himself into the best run-defending linebacker on this roster. So, I'll give him credit for what I see--even if I know that someone who can't play against the pass can't be a starter on a super bowl contender.

I'd love JO-K.

 

[Dr. Claw]

While I kinda want to let a sleeping dog lie, I also want to suggest a possible reason the Jets packaged Elijah Moore to the Browns at a price many pundits call an early Browns win.

The Jets care more about landing Aaron Rodgers than they do winning a trade for their disgruntled #3 receiver.

The Browns front office knew Moore is barely worth a third rounder. He's a depreciating asset due to a terrible Jets offensive season, and his public demands to be traded.

But the Big Apple franchise is trying to steal away Aaron Rodgers with a trade package that isn't embarrassing to the Packers. By giving New York a second round pick but at an adjusted value that is a net loss, they are able to offer more draft capital for Rodgers.

Basically, Elijah Moore is the NFL version of Jarrett Allen.

Facts. And much like Koby, AB knew when to strike.
The parallels are real.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I mean if you wanna get technical, Cooper was actually traded before the end of his rookie contract and then given an extension of his rookie contract by his the team he finished his rookie contract with

So I actually had him in the wrong group. He should have been in group 1 like Teller.

I agree--was wondering why you had him in the second group.

I still think we can do better if we want to pick a single metric to evaluate "was this a successful draft pick?"