2010 Offseason Analysis (An argument against the "Bosh Plan")

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Now, when we're looking to make trades this season, a lot of people have said "Oh, we can't get him! His contract interferes with our cap space in 2010 and we need that cap to sign Wade or Bosh!"

Looking at our roster right now, we have the following salaries committed for the 2010/2011 season:

Maurice Williams- 9,300,000
Delonte West- 4,620,000
Daniel Gibson- 4,015,334
Darnell Jackson- 854,389

We have a team option for JJ which we'll pick up, worth $1,528,920

The NBA salary cap has grown by roughly 5% every year recently, so we can project that the salary cap for the 2010 offseason will be around $64.7 million.

LeBron will have been a seven year veteran, therefore he can make up to 30% of the salary cap, so we can add his salary of $19,410,000.

This brings our team to a total of $39,728,643.

If we factor in our two first round draft picks, that's another 3 million, bringing the total to $42,728,643 with only 8 players on the roster.

Then you have to resolve all of our free agents before you can get their cap holds off the books, such as Ben and Z. Let's say you renounce both Ben and Z. We'd still have to add 1,350,000 for three minimum salary roster spots (not counting the one we're offering to Bosh).

This means that we'd have JUST enough (20.6 million) to offer Bosh his max deal of 19,410,000.

However, this means that we do NOT use any of our expiring contracts to trade for anyone we want to keep around past 2010, and that we do not re-sign Varejao, Z, or Ben.

Our roster would be:

Mo, Boobie
West
LeBron
Bosh, Hickson, Jackson
?

With our 09 first and our '10 first round pick thrown in there, plus three minimum salary players. We wouldn't have the MLE or anything else to spend on free agents.

So, if you want to put all your eggs into one basket, you'd leave our roster very, very thin... and that's HINGING on the hopes that Bosh doesn't:

a) Stay with Toronto because he's been there his whole career, they've got a good young team, and they offered him the most money

b) Sign with a different team because they're a bigger market, or have a more attractive team.

Personally, I'd much rather trade our expirings for proven talent, rather than hope and pray that our next two drafts net us players who can contribute right away and fill in the gaping holes that would be left if we did go after Bosh in 2010.

 

[tedginnjr]

Well, let's say we sign Bosh.

We could sign him BEFORE signing LeBron... and get to the cap. Then, using our bird rights, we can sign LeBron to his max deal. So we have more room than you're saying, if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Silky Smooth]

Id rather sign Amare Stoudemire considering he can play the Center position and in case Hickson becomes that player we all believe he can be.

 

[mixman]

Well, let's say we sign Bosh.

We could sign him BEFORE signing LeBron... and get to the cap. Then, using our bird rights, we can sign LeBron to his max deal. So we have more room than you're saying, if I'm not mistaken.

If I'm not mistaken, Lebron's cap hold would make that almost impossible, because it's the last year of the previous contract plus a certain percentage. We could renounce bron's rights and screw up like the clippers did. But that would be a beyond retarded move on Ferry's part.

I agree the OP. I'd absolutely love to have Bosh, but I don't think we could swing it and field a 12 man team. Now, let's say Bosh sends up smoke signals to the Raptors that he doesn't want to be there. The raptors might put him on the block and we'd have Big Ben and Z's expirings to pull the trigger. I think that would be our best chance. Free agency will be a reach.

 

[tedginnjr]

If I'm not mistaken, Lebron's cap hold would make that almost impossible, because it's the last year of the previous contract plus a certain percentage. We could renounce bron's rights and screw up like the clippers did. But that would be a beyond retarded move on Ferry's part.

I agree the OP. I'd absolutely love to have Bosh, but I don't think we could swing it and field a 12 man team. Now, let's say Bosh sends up smoke signals to the Raptors that he doesn't want to be there. The raptors might put him on the block and we'd have Big Ben and Z's expirings to pull the trigger. I think that would be our best chance. Free agency will be a reach.

Hmm... I think the difference with the Brand situation is that the Clippers weren't willing to go into the luxury tax, so they wouldn't give him their full max offer... and they let the 6ers outbid them. Maybe I'm wrong. Could someone clear this up?

 

[Thunder]

I don't think we should rely on the 2010 offseason. Sure it gets me excited but I think our chances are limited. Right now we should just look to resign LeBron. I'd rather have a deep team at every position and talented players all around. I mean it's enticing to have 2 superstars but they'd be playing crazy minutes 'cause more than likely our bench would suck. That is unless vets signed for the min. considering we'd be a automatic ring.

But instead of risking, I'd rather we be a secure, deep, team and surround LeBron with talent atleast 1 through 10. We could always get a 2nd option on the cheap, there's so many options in 2010, not all of them are max players, there's tons of 12-15 mil players we can get to complement LeBron.

 

[tedginnjr]

Another thing is... these guys... Wade, Bosh, Amare... are going to have to take SIGNIFICANT pay cuts to come here. The Plain Dealer article today showed the difference in LeBron's contract if he stays compared to if he goes... the difference was about 33 million if I'm not mistaken. I know these guys want to win, but is it worth 33 million dollars to them to play with LeBron. My guess is no.

 

[Mdog1]

Besides this whole 2010 plan means that we re sign LBJ. We are not guaranteed to and if we don't then we are stuck wit 40 milolion in cap space and the 2002 Cavs again. But if we build through trade even if LBJ leaves we may still have a good team in place that can win something like the MJless Bulls.

 

[MikeOC33]

Another thing is... these guys... Wade, Bosh, Amare... are going to have to take SIGNIFICANT pay cuts to come here. The Plain Dealer article today showed the difference in LeBron's contract if he stays compared to if he goes... the difference was about 33 million if I'm not mistaken. I know these guys want to win, but is it worth 33 million dollars to them to play with LeBron. My guess is no.

I don't get the PD, but I'm assuming this 33 million dollar difference is over a long term contract... same for same Wade or Bosh if they signed with Clev...

so what would prevent a team from signing someone else's top level player to a 2 year contract for the most they can, then, the player is theirs, and after two years they can give him the long term max contract? That way, if the $ is most important, the player is only losing the max amount from his first 1-2 years with the new team, not from a contract of 5-7 years? (Yes, I realize there is a long term contract security issue being circumvented... I'm just trying to think of alternate ways to get around the contract issues)

 

[Man Called X]

I don't get the PD, but I'm assuming this 33 million dollar difference is over a long term contract... same for same Wade or Bosh if they signed with Clev...

so what would prevent a team from signing someone else's top level player to a 2 year contract for the most they can, then, the player is theirs, and after two years they can give him the long term max contract? That way, if the $ is most important, the player is only losing the max amount from his first 1-2 years with the new team, not from a contract of 5-7 years? (Yes, I realize there is a long term contract security issue being circumvented... I'm just trying to think of alternate ways to get around the contract issues)

It would take a 3 year contract so we could get bird rights.

 

[Sir Charles Barkley]

who cares right now? holy crap we have an extremely good team this year. Lets focus on that for right now. and in 2010 we can talk about this.

 

[flamez]

who cares right now? holy crap we have an extremely good team this year. Lets focus on that for right now. and in 2010 we can talk about this.

We have to care, Lebron is a free agent that year. No offense but would be a horrible GM if you do not care about the future of the team. Look at the Joe Dumars and the Pistons, the reason the guy is such a respected GM is because his team is ALWAYS a contender and his cap flexibility for the near future (2009/2010) is excellent.

I don't like the whole idea of trying to sign Bosh/Amare/Wade. What happens if they refuse? I dont want to bank on those guys to keep Lebron here. I say if Ferry can pull it off go with trades. I'm not saying he should just trade, trade trade! He should be patient and examine all his choices. He has shown that he's not afraid to do trades and has also shown that he is patient, which is a good thing.

Good things happen to those who have patience.

 

[Sir Charles Barkley]

We have to care, Lebron is a free agent that year. No offense but would be a horrible GM if you do not care about the future of the team. Look at the Joe Dumars and the Pistons, the reason the guy is such a respected GM is because his team is ALWAYS a contender and his cap flexibility for the near future (2009/2010) is excellent.

I don't like the whole idea of trying to sign Bosh/Amare/Wade. What happens if they refuse? I dont want to bank on those guys to keep Lebron here. I say if Ferry can pull it off go with trades. I'm not saying he should just trade, trade trade! He should be patient and examine all his choices. He has shown that he's not afraid to do trades and has also shown that he is patient, which is a good thing.

Good things happen to those who have patience.

Exactly. im being patient and waiting until at least next year to start talking about this stuff. Who knows...maybe bosh gets traded or signs a extension...or same with dwade and amare....anything can happen. Its too early to predict whats gonna happen. I can understand talking about it next year...because thats when it will be critical. I dont have doubt in ferry. Hes proven he can get shit done when given pieces. Im just being patient and seeing what happens.

 

[abuC]

Look at all the top teams, how many of them were built through free agency, not many if any really. There are too many variables to rely on free agency, the Cavs have a valuable contract in Wally this year, and Wallace next year, if they can get quality players for those contracts you do it.

 

[KingSimba]

if i had just lost all my memory and been in a coma for a while and then came here once i woke up i would think it is off-season.

how about we freaking talk about this season not 2010, not 2009, 2008-2009 regular season