2012-2013 Hollinger player profiles are up

[Douglar]

Not able to do more that post this link right now--

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/2012-13-cle-preview/cleveland-cavaliers-player-profiles

I'm still big on the Irving bandwagon. Who wouldn't be after he ranked fifth among point guards in PER as a 19-year-old rookie? But I'll say this: When they're replacing you with Ramon Sessions for defensive purposes, that might be a sign you have work to do. As good as Irving was on offense, he was a horrifying, flaming train wreck on defense. Synergy rated him the worst defensive player in the league with at least 300 plays defended, opposing point guards ripped him for a 19.0 PER according to 82games.com, and the Cavs gave up 5.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court -- even though his usual replacement, Sessions, was himself among the league's most flammable point guards.

 

[Stark]

Whoa, I know Irving's not an electric defende, but worst in the league?

Give me a break.

 

[CardiacCavs]

Wow. I knew that Kyrie could improve defensively but I never thought he was that bad. Makes me wonder how Synergy calculates their defensive ratings.

 

[Lee]

Biggest issue with the accuracy of the per numbers is with Kyrie out there we were a much faster paced team on offense, thus the opposition would have more defensive possesions. Defense is very hard to measure, especially for a pg.

 

[Obawan12]

Here is Kyrie's entire profile:

Analysis
I'm still big on the Irving bandwagon. Who wouldn't be after he ranked fifth among point guards in PER as a 19-year-old rookie?

But I'll say this: When they're replacing you with Ramon Sessions for defensive purposes, that might be a sign you have work to do. As good as Irving was on offense, he was a horrifying, flaming train wreck on defense. Synergy rated him the worst defensive player in the league with at least 300 plays defended, opposing point guards ripped him for a 19.0 PER according to 82games.com, and the Cavs gave up 5.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court -- even though his usual replacement, Sessions, was himself among the league's most flammable point guards.

Irving is so young and skilled that one presumes he'll make strong progress, especially after jumping into the NBA after just a handful of college games. Too often he just didn't know what to do or where he was supposed to be, and that's all stuff he'll learn.

Meanwhile, he's a breathtaking offensive talent with an airtight handle and deep shooting ability. Irving made 39.9 percent of his triples as a rookie and shot 60.4 percent at the basket, a nice combo that sums up his inside-outside threat. He also shot 87.2 percent from the line, which is amazing for a teenage rookie.

The one concern is that he played more as a scorer than as a passer, ranking only 58th among point guards in assist rate and 59th in pure point rating. Granted, there weren't a lot of options, but to reach superstardom he'll need to be a better distributor and play less as an undersized 2.

With all that said ... if he's this good at 19, I shudder to think what he'll be at 25.

I'd post the rest but I'm a little short on time right now.

 

[Jon]

Biggest issue with the accuracy of the per numbers is with Kyrie out there we were a much faster paced team on offense, thus the opposition would have more defensive possesions. Defense is very hard to measure, especially for a pg.

eFG% allowed isn't directly effected by pace, and the team's EFG% shot up by 3.6% when Kryie was on the floor. But that's team eFG% and it's non-trivial to figure out how much of that Kyrie was responsible for. The Synergy numbers are based on charting individual plays, so I believe it gets a lot more to the issue at hand.

I agree with the analysis, but a rook struggling on D is to be expected. You look for improvement, and I think Kyrie did improve. Still, he needs to continue that improvement, and with a full-preseason to help and some new talent, I also hope to see a lot of growth in his ability to run the team.

 

[Nathan S]

On the bright side, the worse you are at something, the easier it is to improve. Tristan and Kyrie are both really bad at some things, so they should be expected to improve a lot, easily in those areas. Players with top-tier skills and massive weaknesses typically have a lot more upside than players who are just mediocre all around, because improving a skill from average to great is a whole lot more difficult than improving a skill from terrible to average, especially at this age.

 

[Jon]

Some guys just suck and don't get better because they don't get it and never will. They may lack some fundamental aspect, whether it's court awareness, lateral foot speed, giving a shit, etc.

So, no matter the situation, as long as the player is showing some improvement, there's hope they'll have more.

 

[Nathan S]

True, but at a basic level (and given the right physical tools, and a desire to improve in the area), the worst part of a player's game is where he is most likely to improve by the biggest margin. Kyrie's so bad at defense, for instance, that he's almost guaranteed to improve there next year. That's great news for the Cavs...how many teams have a player who they can say is guaranteed to improve?

 

[Jon]

True, but at a basic level (and given the right physical tools, and a desire to improve in the area), the worst part of a player's game is where he is most likely to improve by the biggest margin. Kyrie's so bad at defense, for instance, that he's almost guaranteed to improve there next year. That's great news for the Cavs...how many teams have a player who they can say is guaranteed to improve?

The problem is that there's no guarantee. In fact, if you were to go back over draft profiles of guys who've been in the league for years, the one thing they consistently project correctly are a player's weaknesses.

Flaws are not great news... Improvement is great news.

 

[Chris]

The problem is that there's no guarantee. In fact, if you were to go back over draft profiles of guys who've been in the league for years, the one thing they consistently project correctly are a player's weaknesses.

Flaws are not great news... Improvement is great news.

Lots of people on here just assume all of the Cavaliers' young players will follow a linear trajectory of improvement simply because they looked good in their rookie year, or their second year, or whatever. Totally not the case.

 

[Nathan S]

I think it's as close as you can come to a guarantee that Irving won't repeat as the worst defensive player in the league with at least 300 plays defended, but hey, we'll see. Maybe he'll keep slapping walls instead of getting back on defense :chuckles:

 

[NarlCavs]

These profiles are a reality check for us about where the Cavs are and what they have.

Shouldn't buy everything Hollinger writes 100% but it does give a pretty good idea about things. Although there are some pretty nice or promising pieces in place, the Cavs do still need a lot more and still have a long way to go.

 

[kovanovich]

What, no Alonzo Gee profile from Hollinger?

 

[Douglar]

What, no Alonzo Gee profile from Hollinger?

Doesn't look like it's up. I'll ask him to post it.