I agree about Miami - I can only see them losing in the finals now. Still, the Spurs have been amazing the past few months and they haven't even been playing their stars all that many minutes. If Duncan and Manu can handle the uptick in minutes without it effecting their game too much (which is obviously not for certain), then I can definitely see them beating the Heat.
As for the Grizzlies, I don't see the same problems as last year. First off, Randolph has not been his same dominate self that he was last year. Not to mention that the Spurs didn't have a healthy Manu last year, and now they have a much improved Tiago Splitter to throw at the Memphis bigs. I do think the Grizzlies can give the Spurs some trouble, but I don't a Spurs-Grizzlies series turning out like last year.