2019 Cleveland Browns Regular Season

[MoFlo]

Thought I'd post a list of things to watch as we get ready for the season to start..

Team:
*The last time the Browns won their opening game was in 2004. It was at home.

*The last time the Browns won their 1st home game of the season was in 2015 against... the Titans.

*The most games the Browns have won in a Head Coach's first season with the team is 7 (Butch Davis 2001, Mike Pettine 2014)

Baker:
*Needs 1,408 yards to pass Bernie Kosar for most passing yards by a Browns QB through the first two seasons of their career

*Needs 16 TD to pass Otto Graham for most passing TD by a Browns QB through the first two seasons of their career

*Needs 3,359 yards to move into the Top 10 in passing yards in Browns history

*14 TD will push him into the Top 10 in Browns history

Chubb:
*Needs 1,473 yards to pass Jim Brown for most rushing yards by a Browns player through the first two seasons of their career.

Odell:
*The Browns single season record for most receptions by a WR is 87 by Josh Gordon. Beckham has surpassed that in 3 of his 5 seasons in the league.

*Not including his injury riddled season, Odell's single season receiving yards totals would place him:

2nd, 3rd, 4th, 10th

On the Browns all-time single season list.

Landry:
*If Landry can achieve 900+ receiving yards, he'd become the 1st WR in Browns history to obtain 900+ receiving yards in back to back seasons.

*If he were to achieve that feat, he'd be the 2nd player in Browns history to reach 900+ receiving yards in back to back seasons (Ozzie, '83 & '84)

Njoku:
*Currently ranks #10 in Browns history in receiving yards by a TE

Garrett:
*Needs 7 sacks to pass Reggie Camp for most sacks by a Browns player through the first three seasons of their career.

*2.5 sacks will propel him into the Top 10 in Browns history

 

[Binkster]

These end zones are sweet as hell.

 

[red.]

 

[Hurl Bruce]

Thought I'd post a list of things to watch as we get ready for the season to start..

Team:
*The last time the Browns won their opening game was in 2004. It was at home.

*The last time the Browns won their 1st home game of the season was in 2015 against... the Titans.

*The most games the Browns have won in a Head Coach's first season with the team is 7 (Butch Davis 2001, Mike Pettine 2014)

Baker:
*Needs 1,408 yards to pass Bernie Kosar for most passing yards by a Browns QB through the first two seasons of their career

*Needs 16 TD to pass Otto Graham for most passing TD by a Browns QB through the first two seasons of their career

*Needs 3,359 yards to move into the Top 10 in passing yards in Browns history

*14 TD will push him into the Top 10 in Browns history

Chubb:
*Needs 1,473 yards to pass Jim Brown for most rushing yards by a Browns player through the first two seasons of their career.

Odell:
*The Browns single season record for most receptions by a WR is 87 by Josh Gordon. Beckham has surpassed that in 3 of his 5 seasons in the league.

*Not including his injury riddled season, Odell's single season receiving yards totals would place him:

2nd, 3rd, 4th, 10th

On the Browns all-time single season list.

Landry:
*If Landry can achieve 900+ receiving yards, he'd become the 1st WR in Browns history to obtain 900+ receiving yards in back to back seasons.

*If he were to achieve that feat, he'd be the 2nd player in Browns history to reach 900+ receiving yards in back to back seasons (Ozzie, '83 & '84)

Njoku:
*Currently ranks #10 in Browns history in receiving yards by a TE

Garrett:
*Needs 7 sacks to pass Reggie Camp for most sacks by a Browns player through the first three seasons of their career.

*2.5 sacks will propel him into the Top 10 in Browns history

As if this needs to be written, but Browns QBs have been trash if Baker can rank that high after year 2.

 

[MoFlo]

 

[macbdog]

The city could make up a huge portion of the budget shortfall by just passing out parking tickets down the row. Missed opportunity

 

[Goodbyehorses]

Get excited, motherfuckers!!!!!!

I expect this game to be a statement by our defense saying to all teams that our offense is not really what is to be feared. Hope Marcus says a couple extra prayers this morning, cause he might be meeting the fucking spaghetti monster today

 

[MoFlo]

 

[bob2the2nd]

I made a thread about this on Twitter, but in case people are curious (just humor me), the analytics models are actually uniformly picking the Browns to finish between 16th-18th in the NFL this year. I want to explain why.

(sorry for hijacking this thread, @Juice Is Loose, loved the Myles article).


1) Uncertainty about the head coach. Kitchens is a new HC, and new HCs tend to be unstable. My guess is that most models have Freddie making a negative impact (a neutral impact would be league average/team's schedule). Even more, I imagine those models have Freddie adding anywhere from half-to-one extra losses.

2) Baker Mayfield is going into his second year. This combines with the fact that his play under Hue was pretty underwhelming. Consequently, models viewed Baker as a league average QB last year, and project slight improvement. Expected points added models have Baker as a +2.5 win QB. Mahomes is a +5 and highest in the NFL.

3) Lots of roster overhaul adds even more instability. The Browns have eight new starters, five new additional rotation players, and unknown philosophies on both sides of the ball.

4) The offensive line is predicted to be significantly below average. Historically, the team only has one elite linemen and two average starters. Robinson is a big question mark and Kush is not that good.

5) The depth at a lot of positions just are not all that great. QB, WR, all offensive line positions, and all defensive line positions will be much worse in case of injury.

6) The Browns were 7-8-1 last season, 5-3 after Hue got fired, and only got one win against a playoff team. They played .500 football all year. The biggest positions they added this year are at receiver and secondary pass rusher - two positions reliant on other factors.

7) Compounding all of this is that the Browns play two games against the Ravens - who are another team with very similar problems - and the Steelers - who are actually a really reliable eight-to-ten win pick. The schedule may look easy, but it is actually pretty unpredictable.

I think this leads to two valuable pieces of information:

First, the best models we have still do not perform greatly at incorporating context. ELO models view the Browns as a slightly below .500 team, with lots of overhaul, whose QB will add about one more win than their total last season. They cannot incorporate how the players feel about Freddie, if they know his offense, how good Baker looked under Freddie, etc.

Second, with all of that said, the models do identify uncertainty with this Browns team. Incorporating new players is difficult, no matter the coach. Injuries are unpredictable and the Browns will be impacted more than most by such events. Overall, if you are risk averse, the Browns probably are not a team you want to root for.

Still, I think the models are underrating the Browns by about thirty total net points (which roughly equates to one win). My guess is the Browns go 9-7 and make the playoffs. If they avoid injuries, though, the sky is the limit.

Ive been meaning to address this post since you put it up, but i wanted to do some research first.

I wanted to see how historically good rookie quarterbacks played their 2nd year, and how a team improved from year 1 to year 2. So I went to the TD list and compared. We all know Baker set the record for most passing TDs by a rookie so i figured that was a good list to compare. I eliminated non-modern era QBs and was left was a very nice top 8 list, all but 1 was from the last 10 years (peyton manning being the outlier and he was only 20 years ago).

Things that stood out

1) All of these QBs played full seasons both seasons (mayfield obviously didnt)
2) Only 3 of the 8 increased their TD totals from the previous year. Those 3 actually made significant jumps in number of TDs. (those were QBs 5, 6, and 8)
3) All seemed to take at least minor steps forward (even if they didnt increase their TD totals or team wins). Their was one exception QB 7
4) Team success- Only 1 of the 8 had a losing record their 2nd year. (QB 7)
5) Team success - 5 teams improved their record (QB 1, 5, 6, 7, 8), 1 QB took a dip and it was signifcant (QB 4)
6) Team success - The average team improvement for the 8 was +2 wins the 2nd season. However 1 QB (QB 1) took their team from 3-13 to 13-3, which really skewed things. If we eliminate that 1 QB the average team improvement was +1 game.

QB 1-Peyton
QB 2-Russell Wilson
QB 3-Andrew Luck
QB 4-Dak prescott
QB 5- Jamesis Winston
QB 6-Derek Carr
QB 7- Cam Newton
QB 8- Andy Dalton

I think if we had nothing to go off of other than last year's record, the previous knowledge mentioned above, and that the Browns added some pieces, but swapped head coaches I think 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 make the most sense. In fact almost any human being is going to say pretty much the same thing. Put this team into an always difficult AFC North and i can see why some models have the browns doing less than what we all hope for.

But 1 thing that is impossible to quantify in any argument is how much significant negative energy that Hue Jackson brought to this team. I am not saying that Freddie is going to re-invent the wheel this season but its clear as day that Jackson held this team back in the beginning

2) If baker played all 16 games last year I think you can easily make the argument the browns would have gone 8-8, and maybe 9-7.

So with that said I understand why models have the Browns at what they do, but I also understand why the browns from a human aspect are in the top 10 best odds to win the super bowl. I think one of the key stats I mentioned was that of all of those QBs on the list, all but 1 had a winning record their 2nd year in the league.

My final prediction I would put the browns at 9-7 or 10-6, with Bakers number improvement based on playing a full 16 games. Which would take him to 33-35 TDs and 4500 yards. I feel like the real improvement will be seen in the INTs (hopefully)

 

[NorthCoastBias]

Wow. Chris Mortensen just said on Sunday NFL Countdown that the Browns and Seahawks were two of the other teams in on Antonio Brown. Followed that up by saying it was essentially a fait accompli. Dude was destined for the Pats.

 

[Jordan]

Ive been meaning to address this post since you put it up, but i wanted to do some research first.

I wanted to see how historically good rookie quarterbacks played their 2nd year, and how a team improved from year 1 to year 2. So I went to the TD list and compared. We all know Baker set the record for most passing TDs by a rookie so i figured that was a good list to compare. I eliminated non-modern era QBs and was left was a very nice top 8 list, all but 1 was from the last 10 years (peyton manning being the outlier and he was only 20 years ago).

Things that stood out

1) All of these QBs played full seasons both seasons (mayfield obviously didnt)
2) Only 3 of the 8 increased their TD totals from the previous year. Those 3 actually made significant jumps in number of TDs. (those were QBs 5, 6, and 8)
3) All seemed to take at least minor steps forward (even if they didnt increase their TD totals or team wins). Their was one exception QB 7
4) Team success- Only 1 of the 8 had a losing record their 2nd year. (QB 7)
5) Team success - 5 teams improved their record (QB 1, 5, 6, 7, 8), 1 QB took a dip and it was signifcant (QB 4)
6) Team success - The average team improvement for the 8 was +2 wins the 2nd season. However 1 QB (QB 1) took their team from 3-13 to 13-3, which really skewed things. If we eliminate that 1 QB the average team improvement was +1 game.

QB 1-Peyton
QB 2-Russell Wilson
QB 3-Andrew Luck
QB 4-Dak prescott
QB 5- Jamesis Winston
QB 6-Derek Carr
QB 7- Cam Newton
QB 8- Andy Dalton

I think if we had nothing to go off of other than last year's record, the previous knowledge mentioned above, and that the Browns added some pieces, but swapped head coaches I think 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 make the most sense. In fact almost any human being is going to say pretty much the same thing. Put this team into an always difficult AFC North and i can see why some models have the browns doing less than what we all hope for.

But 1 thing that is impossible to quantify in any argument is how much significant negative energy that Hue Jackson brought to this team. I am not saying that Freddie is going to re-invent the wheel this season but its clear as day that Jackson held this team back in the beginning

2) If baker played all 16 games last year I think you can easily make the argument the browns would have gone 8-8, and maybe 9-7.

So with that said I understand why models have the Browns at what they do, but I also understand why the browns from a human aspect are in the top 10 best odds to win the super bowl. I think one of the key stats I mentioned was that of all of those QBs on the list, all but 1 had a winning record their 2nd year in the league.

My final prediction I would put the browns at 9-7 or 10-6, with Bakers number improvement based on playing a full 16 games. Which would take him to 33-35 TDs and 4500 yards. I feel like the real improvement will be seen in the INTs (hopefully)

Hey man, great post!! Thank you for this!

I agree with you... from a modeling standpoint the prediction makes sense. But there are a few human factors that the models just can’t account for. I agree, I’d bet the over on 9.5 wins.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Ive been meaning to address this post since you put it up, but i wanted to do some research first.

I wanted to see how historically good rookie quarterbacks played their 2nd year, and how a team improved from year 1 to year 2. So I went to the TD list and compared. We all know Baker set the record for most passing TDs by a rookie so i figured that was a good list to compare. I eliminated non-modern era QBs and was left was a very nice top 8 list, all but 1 was from the last 10 years (peyton manning being the outlier and he was only 20 years ago).

Things that stood out

1) All of these QBs played full seasons both seasons (mayfield obviously didnt)
2) Only 3 of the 8 increased their TD totals from the previous year. Those 3 actually made significant jumps in number of TDs. (those were QBs 5, 6, and 8)
3) All seemed to take at least minor steps forward (even if they didnt increase their TD totals or team wins). Their was one exception QB 7
4) Team success- Only 1 of the 8 had a losing record their 2nd year. (QB 7)
5) Team success - 5 teams improved their record (QB 1, 5, 6, 7, 8), 1 QB took a dip and it was signifcant (QB 4)
6) Team success - The average team improvement for the 8 was +2 wins the 2nd season. However 1 QB (QB 1) took their team from 3-13 to 13-3, which really skewed things. If we eliminate that 1 QB the average team improvement was +1 game.

QB 1-Peyton
QB 2-Russell Wilson
QB 3-Andrew Luck
QB 4-Dak prescott
QB 5- Jamesis Winston
QB 6-Derek Carr
QB 7- Cam Newton
QB 8- Andy Dalton

I think if we had nothing to go off of other than last year's record, the previous knowledge mentioned above, and that the Browns added some pieces, but swapped head coaches I think 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 make the most sense. In fact almost any human being is going to say pretty much the same thing. Put this team into an always difficult AFC North and i can see why some models have the browns doing less than what we all hope for.

But 1 thing that is impossible to quantify in any argument is how much significant negative energy that Hue Jackson brought to this team. I am not saying that Freddie is going to re-invent the wheel this season but its clear as day that Jackson held this team back in the beginning

2) If baker played all 16 games last year I think you can easily make the argument the browns would have gone 8-8, and maybe 9-7.

So with that said I understand why models have the Browns at what they do, but I also understand why the browns from a human aspect are in the top 10 best odds to win the super bowl. I think one of the key stats I mentioned was that of all of those QBs on the list, all but 1 had a winning record their 2nd year in the league.

My final prediction I would put the browns at 9-7 or 10-6, with Bakers number improvement based on playing a full 16 games. Which would take him to 33-35 TDs and 4500 yards. I feel like the real improvement will be seen in the INTs (hopefully)

Nice analysis.

There are a few key factors for me when looking at 2018 as a baseline for setting 2019 expectations that lead me to be more optimistic.

1) I think there were on-field head coaching decisions last season cost us at least a half game. That's leaving aside everything else about Hue. So even if nothing else at all had changed other than some stupid early season decisions, last year's team played at an 8-8 level.

2) I'm willing to leave whatever ephemeral value we assign to Hue's attitude/demeanor/etc. out of the analysis. However, what I don't believe can be fairly overlooked is the rather massive change we saw with the change in offensive coordinators. Baker performed significantly better when Freddie was running the offense, and analytics that just look at the season as a whole completely miss those changes. So, again without changing anything else from last year, I'd expect that same group of guys to be better than 8-8 last year if they ad the same offensive staff we have this year.. Therefore, after accounting for Hue's stupid decisions, plus the midseason adoption of a demonstrably better than Haley offensive plan that will continue his season, I see last season's baseline as something above 8 wins. Maybe 8.5, maybe 9. That's how I look at last season if we'd have had the right staff in place from Game 1.

To that, we should add the following:

3) We not only had a rookie QB who can reasonably be expected to improve, but we also had the youngest team in the entire league overall. I haven't seen data on expected improvement in that regard, but I think that is too often ignored/discounted by the analytics. So exactly what is that worth -- the combined maturation/experience of all those players in additional to Baker now having an additional year of NFL experience behind them? Is Baker's second year plus the additional maturation of the youngest team in the league worth an extra 1-1.5 wins? If that's so, I think that puts last years guys, plus Freddie for a full year, at 10-6 this year. That's what I'd predict if there were no significant roster changes from 2018 to 2019.

4) But obviously, there were roster changes. We significantly strengthened our defensive line, and added OBJ, in addition to some other moves including drafting Greedy to strengthen our DB's. So what is that worth? I think projecting just one more win alone is pretty damn defensible. So, I end up at 11-5 as my prediction for this season. I view that as realistic, not optimistic.

That's why the analytics that have us at 8-8 or so just floor me. That's the exact same place we'd have been last year if Hue hadn't made some stupid on-field decisions. So essentially, it's saying that everything else does not matter. No improvement from having a better offensive system, no improvement for Baker's second season or the maturation of the youngest team in the league, and nothing at all for the offseason acquisitions. I just don't see those results as logically defensible.

 

[Marcus]

Wow. Chris Mortensen just said on Sunday NFL Countdown that the Browns and Seahawks were two of the other teams in on Antonio Brown. Followed that up by saying it was essentially a fait accompli. Dude was destined for the Pats.

From a talent standpoint, with AB on this team... whew.

That being said, pretty glad they won’t have that attitude in the locker room with a rookie head coach and sky high expectations.

 

[Marcus]

Ive been meaning to address this post since you put it up, but i wanted to do some research first.

I wanted to see how historically good rookie quarterbacks played their 2nd year, and how a team improved from year 1 to year 2. So I went to the TD list and compared. We all know Baker set the record for most passing TDs by a rookie so i figured that was a good list to compare. I eliminated non-modern era QBs and was left was a very nice top 8 list, all but 1 was from the last 10 years (peyton manning being the outlier and he was only 20 years ago).

Things that stood out

1) All of these QBs played full seasons both seasons (mayfield obviously didnt)
2) Only 3 of the 8 increased their TD totals from the previous year. Those 3 actually made significant jumps in number of TDs. (those were QBs 5, 6, and 8)
3) All seemed to take at least minor steps forward (even if they didnt increase their TD totals or team wins). Their was one exception QB 7
4) Team success- Only 1 of the 8 had a losing record their 2nd year. (QB 7)
5) Team success - 5 teams improved their record (QB 1, 5, 6, 7, 8), 1 QB took a dip and it was signifcant (QB 4)
6) Team success - The average team improvement for the 8 was +2 wins the 2nd season. However 1 QB (QB 1) took their team from 3-13 to 13-3, which really skewed things. If we eliminate that 1 QB the average team improvement was +1 game.

QB 1-Peyton
QB 2-Russell Wilson
QB 3-Andrew Luck
QB 4-Dak prescott
QB 5- Jamesis Winston
QB 6-Derek Carr
QB 7- Cam Newton
QB 8- Andy Dalton

I think if we had nothing to go off of other than last year's record, the previous knowledge mentioned above, and that the Browns added some pieces, but swapped head coaches I think 7-9, 8-8, 9-7 make the most sense. In fact almost any human being is going to say pretty much the same thing. Put this team into an always difficult AFC North and i can see why some models have the browns doing less than what we all hope for.

But 1 thing that is impossible to quantify in any argument is how much significant negative energy that Hue Jackson brought to this team. I am not saying that Freddie is going to re-invent the wheel this season but its clear as day that Jackson held this team back in the beginning

2) If baker played all 16 games last year I think you can easily make the argument the browns would have gone 8-8, and maybe 9-7.

So with that said I understand why models have the Browns at what they do, but I also understand why the browns from a human aspect are in the top 10 best odds to win the super bowl. I think one of the key stats I mentioned was that of all of those QBs on the list, all but 1 had a winning record their 2nd year in the league.

My final prediction I would put the browns at 9-7 or 10-6, with Bakers number improvement based on playing a full 16 games. Which would take him to 33-35 TDs and 4500 yards. I feel like the real improvement will be seen in the INTs (hopefully)

Don’t really have much to add other than to say thanks for a great, informative, and well thought post.

 

[Jordan]

Glad this didn’t happen...